New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3) in London
The Jets won their first game of the season last week, knocking off a very banged up Titans team in an overtime upset victory, but they might have trouble bringing that same energy for this week’s game in London against the Falcons. The Jets won as 6-point home underdogs last week and teams cover at just a 41.0% rate after a win as home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as teams tend to be flat off of an emotional upset win. That could be made even worse by the fact that the Jets have to travel all the way to London for a matchup with a fellow 1-3 team.
The Falcons are also the slightly better team, despite both teams having mediocre records, as I have them about 3 points better, even without top wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who will miss this game. The Jets still come in as the 4th worst team in my roster rankings, despite narrowly winning their first game of the season. This line, favoring the Falcons by 2.5 points on a neutral site, isn’t too far off, but it’s also a good rule of thumb to pick the favorite in international games, as they have gone 25-13 ATS, which makes sense, given that the better team is probably better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week. There isn’t enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
Atlanta Falcons 24 New York Jets 20
Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5