Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
The Colts have two key questionable players for this game, with starting quarterback Carson Wentz and stud right tackle Braden Smith still yet to clear COVID protocols. This line favors the Colts by 7.5, suggesting the oddsmakers expect at least Wentz to play in this game, as this line would likely drop significantly if he were ruled out and backup Sam Ehlinger had to start. I think we are getting line value with the Raiders at that number even if Wentz and Smith play though, as my calculated line with Wentz and Smith favors the Colts by just 4.5 points (3 points with only Wentz).
At first glance, a 7.5-point spread seems fair, given that the Raiders have a +71 point differential and the Colts have a +104 point differential, but these two teams are much more even than that suggests. While the Colts have faced a relatively easy schedule and have benefited significantly from a +14 turnover margin, which is not a predictive metric, the Raiders have faced a tougher schedule and have a -9 turnover margin. The Raiders also have largely underperformed on third and fourth downs relative to their early down performance, which tends to even out in the long run.
The Raiders rank 14th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but are just 26th and 14th respectively in third and fourth down conversion percentage and just 24th and 31st respectively in both third and fourth down conversion percentage allowed. In terms of schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, the Raiders rank 11th overall, actually slightly ahead of the 12th ranked Colts.
The Raiders haven’t been as good on offense since losing top wide receiver Henry Ruggs and stud tight end Darren Waller, but they haven’t been bad on offense either and still have an above average defense, while the Colts will at least be without left tackle Eric Fisher this week. I want to lock this in right now because it sounds like the Raiders will get their key COVID questionables (Casey Hayward, KJ Wright, Darius Philon, Denzel Perryman, and Cory Littleton) back today, while Wentz and Smith are truly questionable, so I don’t expect this line to get any higher. Unless the Raiders don’t get those players back, the highest my calculated line would go is 4.5 and, if Wentz and Smith are both out, I would have the Raiders favored by 1.5 points. This is a high confidence pick and a Pick of the Week candidate.
Update: Wentz and Smith are playing for the Colts, but I don’t have any regrets about making this a high confidence pick, as the Raiders will have all of their COVID questionables available for this game.
Indianapolis Colts 24 Las Vegas Raiders 20
Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +7.5