Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)

The Steelers are 7-7-1, but their seven wins have been very different than their seven losses, as their seven wins have all come by one score and by a combined 32 points, while their seven losses have come by a combined 102 points, with five losses coming by multiple scores. That gives them a point differential of -70 that ranks 23rd in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they are even more underwhelming, ranking 29th, 20th, 21st and 29th respectively in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency on the season.

The Browns have a worse record at 7-8, but six of their losses have come by six points or fewer and they rank much better in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 16th, 8th, and 22nd on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and 14th in overall mixed efficiency. They aren’t fully healthy on either side of the ball, but they are healthier than they have been in recent weeks, especially on offense, where they have quarterback Baker Mayfield about as healthy as he’s been all season with at least four fifths of the Browns’ dominant offensive line that has seldom been together this season. 

On defense, the Browns have some absences in the secondary, with Troy Hill, Ronnie Harrison, and John Johnson out, but their secondary hasn’t been healthy all season and they are getting back edge defender Jadeveon Clowney from a short absence. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Browns in the past week, with this line moving from Pittsburgh -1 to Cleveland -3.5 in the past week, as a result of the Steelers’ blowout loss in Kansas City. My calculated line of Cleveland -4 still suggests the Browns should be the right side, but we’re getting such insignificant line value that I can’t be confident in the Browns at all.

Update: This line has shifted all the way from Cleveland -3.5 to Pittsburgh -2.5 because the Browns have been eliminated from the post-season, while the Steelers still technically are alive. I don’t think that should have triggered that big of a shift, as this is still a big divisional game for the Browns, who won’t want the Steelers to keep their playoff hopes alive against them on national television, especially since the Steelers beat them earlier this year. Teams tend to cover in this situation anyway, covering the spread at a 56.8% rate as divisional road underdogs against an opponent who previously won as road underdogs against them earlier in the season. I was hoping we would get a full field goal so I could take the Browns against the spread, but the best value in this game in the money line, as the Browns should be no worse than 50/50 to win this game and likely should still be favored, even given the circumstances.

Cleveland Browns 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2.5

Confidence: Low