Detroit Lions (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. This line shifted from favoring the Vikings by 8 points on the early line last week to now only favoring them by 6 points and ordinarily I would like to fade that kind of line movement, as significant week-to-week line movements tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the movement is appropriate, as the Lions beat the Commanders convincingly this week without stud center Frank Ragnow, who returns this week, while the Vikings lost by double digits to the Eagles last week and now are without safety Harrison Smith, one of their best defensive players. My calculated line still has the Vikings getting a little bit of line value as 6-point home favorites, but I would take the Lions at +6.5. That’s how close this one is for me. A push is also a strong possibility.

Minnesota Vikings 33 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -6

Confidence: None