Lions

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

The Lions started the season 1-6, but have since won six of the past seven games to get back to .500, putting themselves very much in the mix for a playoff spot. In some ways, their improvement was predictable. Four of their first six losses came by one score, despite having significant injuries on offense and a defense that was the worst in the league, which tends to be less consistent week-to-week than poor offensive play. In recent weeks, their offense has been significantly healthier, their defense hasn’t been quite as bad, and they’ve won three of four one-score games, leading to them winning six of their past seven games.

There are some reasons to believe they won’t be quite as successful going forward as they have been in their past seven games though, as they have had a +9 turnover margin over those seven games, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Lions rank a middling 16th on the season and, even though they’re healthier than they were earlier in the season, the Lions are also a middling team in my roster rankings, about a half point above average.

This week, the Lions face the Panthers, who have also been significantly better in recent weeks, particularly since switching to Sam Darnold at quarterback, who has been by far their best option under center this season. After being one of the worst few teams in the league in schedule adjusted efficiency earlier in the year, the Panthers have moved up to 24th (-3.88), and, with Darnold under center, they are only about one point below average in my roster rankings. 

Given that they’re only slightly below average with Darnold under center, the Panthers should have a good chance to win this game at home against the middling Lions, who are probably not going to have the same turnover success they have had in recent weeks. Despite that, the Panthers are 2.5-point underdogs in this game. I would need a full field goal for the Panthers to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +125, as the Panthers should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game,

Carolina Panthers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New York Jets: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Jets were favored by a field goal at home against the Lions, but this line has since shifted to favoring the Lions by 1.5 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that, but in this case it might be justified, as the Lions played well in a big victory over the Vikings, while the Jets lost their best quarterback Mike White to injury and will turn back to Zach Wilson this week. 

The Jets could also be without stud interior defender Quinnen Williams, arguably the best player on their defense, after he didn’t practice all week. I’m still taking the Jets for pick ‘em purposes because they still have the edge on the season in point differential (+21 vs. +2) and schedule adjusted efficiency (12th vs. 18th), even with a carousel of different quarterbacks under center, and they now are home underdogs in this game. This is only a low confidence pick though and, if Williams is out, I would drop all confidence.

Update: Williams out, but, for some reason, the Jets are now favored by 1.5 points. I am switching my pick to Detroit, but dropping this to a no confidence pick.

New York Jets 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +1.5

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Detroit Lions (5-7)

The Vikings have not played nearly as good as their 10-2 record, going an unsustainable 9-0 in one score games, managing just a +10 point differential, and ranking just 18th in schedule adjusted efficiency. However, the public seems to understand that their record is not indicative of how good of a team they are, so we haven’t gotten great line value betting against them recently, leading to the Vikings covering the spread in three of their past four games. 

If anything, we’re getting line value in this game with the Vikings, who have shifted from being 3-point favorites on the early line last week to now being 2-point underdogs against a 5-7 Lions team. The Lions won big against the Jaguars last week, while the Vikings barely put away with the Jets, but that line movement seems like an overreaction to a single week of play and I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements that are overreactions.

Even not being as good as their record, the Vikings should still be favored by at least a couple points here in Detroit, especially with stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw set to return, a big re-addition. I would need this line to be a full field goal for the Vikings to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +110, as the Vikings should still be at least slight favorites, and the Vikings are also a good pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 34 Detroit Lions 31 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

This is another one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. My calculated line has the Lions just slightly favored to win this game, but it also has the Jaguars covering this 1-point spread, which is how close this one is for me. Making it even tougher, there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes because we’re technically getting some line value with them, but this 1-point spread doesn’t give us much room to work with and the most likely outcome of this game might be a push.

Detroit Lions 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 33

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +1

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bills were 10-point favorites for this game in Detroit, but the line has since moved to 9.5. That’s not a huge line movement, but 10 is a key number, with about 6% of games decided by exactly 10 points, and the line movement happened despite the fact that the Lions will be missing top cornerback Jeff Okudah and their starting guards Evan Brown and Jonah Jackson this week. The primary reason for the line movement is the Lions pulled the upset over the Giants last week, but that is not as impressive as it might seem, as the Giants were an overrated team that was nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record, with all seven of their wins coming by one score and five coming against teams that are among the worst in the league (4-7 or worse).

The Bills, meanwhile, almost always blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points across 19 wins over the past two seasons (19-10), and they are favored by 12.5 points on my calculated line against a mediocre Lions team that is missing several key players due to injury. There isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as this seems likely to be the Bills’ 18th double digit win over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -9.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)

This line moved from favoring the Giants by four points on the early line last week to just three points this week, a significant swing given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. Normally I like to go against a significant week-to-week line movement like that as it tends to be an overreaction, but, in this case, I don’t think the line has moved far enough and was too high to begin with. The Giants beat the Texans last week, but the Texans are arguably the worst team in the league and the Giants needed to win the turnover margin by two to win the game by eight and they lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 8.12% and 0.97 respectively, which are much more predictive than turnovers. 

The Giants are 7-2 overall, but all of their wins have come by eight points or fewer, with all but two coming against sub-.500 teams, and several of their wins have required comebacks, with the Giants ranking just 27th in time leading per game, despite their record. They could beat the Lions and move to 8-2, but I expect the Lions to keep this game close and, with this line at a full field goal, the Lions seem like the better side, at least for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t enough here for the Giants to be worth betting, but, with my calculated line at NY Giants -1.5, I expect this to be a close game and one the Lions could end up winning.

New York Giants 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (2-6) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bears were favored by 1.5 points at home in this matchup with the Lions, but now they are favored by 3, a significant swing, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. I normally like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and I think that is the case here. The line movement is likely driven by the Bears’ near upset of the Dolphins last week, but the Lions played a close game with the Dolphins the week prior and then pulled an upset victory over the Packers last week, so it doesn’t really make sense that this line would have moved significantly.

These two teams are pretty similar, below average teams with much better offenses than defenses, but the Lions are a better version of the Bears, with a significant edge in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking two points above average, 9th best in the NFL, with the 23rd ranked Bears are 1.5 points below average. My roster rankings also support that, giving the Lions a 1.5-point edge on offense. The Lions rank dead last in defensive efficiency, so they are worse on that side of the ball, but the Bears rank 28th and have been horrendous defensively since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, so the gap isn’t much between these two defenses, with the Lions having the clear edge on offense. 

Despite the Lions being the better team, the Bears are favored by a full field goal at home, suggesting they are the better team. My calculated line is even and the Lions could easily end up pulling the upset, even if my numbers still have the Bears as slight favorites to win straight up. There isn’t quite enough here for the Lions to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Chicago Bears 28 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6)

The Packers have started 3-5, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 16th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 31st. All in all, the Packers rank just 20th in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 1.5 points below average, and my roster rankings only have them slightly higher, about a half point above average. Despite the big name at quarterback, this team isn’t much more than a slightly above average team any way you look at it.

The Packers get to face the one-win Lions this week, but this isn’t as easy of a matchup as it seems, as the Lions are just 4.5 points behind them in my roster rankings and 2.5 points behind in schedule adjusted efficiency, with four of the Lions’ six losses coming by four points or fewer. Making matters worse, the Packers are on the road and they just haven’t had the same success away from Lambeau in Aaron Rodgers career, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers having a 10 point drop in QB rating on the road in his career, well above average. My calculated line has the Packers favored by one and, while they should still be favored to win this game, they could easily lose and, even if they don’t, about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, so we’re getting good line value with the Lions at +3.5. They’re bettable at that number.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 30

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5)

This is one of the toughest calls of the week, as both teams are probably a little overrated. The Lions began the season as the highest scoring team in the league through 4 games, averaging 35.0 points per game, before being held to six points in their past two games by the Patriots and Cowboys. The common thinking seems to be that the Lions’ dominant offensive start was somewhat legitimate and that they just happened to run into dominant defenses the past two weeks, but I don’t think that’s correct. Even with the last two games taken into account, the Lions still rank 9th in the NFL in points per game at 24.3, but, in terms of first down rate, which is much more predictive than points, the Lions rank just 14th.

That’s still pretty solid, but it’s a big concern for a Lions team that has one of the worst defenses in the league and relies on their offense’s ability to keep up in shootouts to win games. A year after ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, about 4 points below average, the Lions have somehow been even worse this season, ranking dead last, about 5.5 points below average, especially struggling since losing two of their better players, safety Tracy Walker and edge defender Charles Harris, due to injuries a few weeks back. This week, they will be without starting cornerback Mike Hughes and starting safety Deshon Elliott as well. Because of their defensive struggles, the Lions rank just 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4.5 points below average.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 4-1 in games started by Tua Tagovailoa, but they aren’t blowing teams out, with their only win by more than a touchdown coming against the Patriots, in a game in which they won the turnover margin by 3, but lost the first down rate battle by 0.85% and only won the yards per play battle by 0.18, a concern because yards and first downs are significantly more predictive week-to-week than turnovers. The Dolphins still rank 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on yards per play and first down rate, even with the injuries they’ve had at quarterback, but my roster rankings suggest this line should favor the Dolphins by 3 more than it should favor the by 3.5, a big difference considering how many games are decided by 3 points exactly.

In total, about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, with 1 in 4 games decided by a field goal or less. In large part because of this, 3.5-point underdogs cover more often than any other line, doing so at a 53.0% rate, actually enough to be profitable in the long run. A line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize, in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3, and as a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. That alone isn’t enough for the Lions to be worth betting and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Dolphins won by more than a field goal, but the Lions are the pick for pick ‘em purposes by the slimmest of margins. At -3, I would take the Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins 30 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)

The Lions began the season as the highest scoring team in the league through 4 games, averaging 35.0 points per game, before being shut out in week 5 against the Patriots. The common thinking seems to be that the Lions’ dominant offensive start was legitimate and that they just happened to run into a dominant defense in week 5, but I don’t think that’s correct. Even with the Patriots’ game taken into account, the Lions still rank 3rd in the NFL in points per game at 28.0, but in terms of first down rate, which is much more predictive than points, the Lions rank just 13th, 18th when adjusted for strength of schedule.

That’s still pretty solid, but it’s a big concern for a Lions team that has one of the worst defenses in the league and relies on their offense’s ability to keep up in shootouts to win games. A year after ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, about 4 points below average, the Lions have somehow been even worse this season, ranking dead last, about 5.5 points below average, especially struggling since losing two of their better players, safety Tracy Walker and edge defender Charles Harris, due to injuries. My roster rankings tell the same story, with the Lions’ defense being 5 points below average without Walker and Harris. Overall, both my roster rankings and schedule adjusted efficiency have the Lions about 5 points below average overall as a team, making them one of the worst in the league, despite an impressive points total.

With that in mind, I like the Cowboys a lot this week. Many thought the Cowboys’ season was over when they lost quarterback Dak Prescott for an extended period of time in a week 1 blowout loss to the Buccaneers, but the Cowboys’ defense has been dominant this season, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, and, led by that defense, backup Mike White won 4 of 5 games in Prescott’s absence. With Prescott set to return to the lineup for a 4-2 team with a dominant defense, the Cowboys are in position to be a serious contender going forward. 

I’m a little wary of betting on the Cowboys in Prescott’s first game back, especially considering how he struggled in his first game back from a shoulder injury last season, and the Cowboys have offensive problems beyond Prescott, ranking just 24th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency thus far this season, but, even with Prescott factored in at less than 100%, the Cowboys still rank 4 points above average in my roster rankings, 9 points ahead of the Lions. 

In addition to how well their defense has played thus far this season, the Cowboys also rank 4th in schedule adjusted special teams efficiency. Given how big the gap between them and the Lions is, we are getting significant line value with the Cowboys as mere 6.5-point home favorites, with my calculated line being Dallas -11. This isn’t a big play, but the Cowboys are worth a bet this week if you can get this line at less than a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys 26 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -6.5

Confidence: Medium