San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

The 49ers won in a blowout as 6.5-point road favorites in Carolina last week, but it was surprising to see them still be 4.5-point road favorites in this game in Atlanta this week. The Falcons are a much more competent and better coached team than the Panthers and the 49ers’ still have concerns on offense that will show up in a tougher matchup. Even after last week’s performance in Carolina, the 49ers rank 21st in both first down rate and schedule adjusted efficiency and they also rank below average in my roster rankings on offense.

The 49ers still have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but their running back group is depleted by injury and their offensive line lost a trio of starters this off-season and now is without Trent Williams, who will be filled in for this week by third stringer Jaylon Moore, after backup Colton McKivitz played admirably in their first game without Williams two weeks ago, before suffering an injury of his own. The 49ers have a strong defense, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they’ve struggled on special teams as well and, with offensive performance being significantly more predictive than defensive performance, the 49ers rank just 14th in overall efficiency, just a half point above average, while being a half point below average in my roster rankings, due to injuries. 

Given that, this line is way too high on the road against a competent Falcons team that has been competitive in all of their games, despite an above average schedule. My calculated line has the Falcons favored by 1.5 points, so we’re getting great line value with them at +4.5. The 49ers are also in a tough spot, with a bigger game on deck against the Chiefs that could easily be a distraction and make this a trap game. This is my favorite pick this week and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Atlanta Falcons 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +185

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week