49ers

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: 2023 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

The Giants’ season got off to a disastrous start when they were blown out at home by the Cowboys 40-0 in week 1 and then subsequently went down 20-0 at halftime on the road in week 2 against a Cardinals team that is one of the worst in the league. However, the Giants rebounded in the second half of that Cardinals game to come from behind and win, averting a total catastrophe and salvaging a 1-1 record out of the first two weeks of the season.

Things don’t get easier for the Giants this week though, as they have to go on the road on a short week and face a 49ers team that is one of the best in the league. Teams typically struggle on the road on a short week against a superior non-divisional opponent, going 28-46 ATS and it’s even worse when a team is underdogs of more than a touchdown (6-17 ATS), which the Giants are here. The Giants could also be extra tired after staging their comeback last week, as underdogs are just 8-15 ATS the week after coming back from a deficit of 13+ after the third quarter and winning in a game in which they were favored.

This line is high at 10.5, but the 49ers enter this game 2nd in DVOA, while the Giants rank 32nd. That’s only a two game sample size, but the 49ers entered the season as a vastly superior team to the Giants, expected by the oddsmakers to win three more games than the Giants (10.5 vs. 7.5), and based on what we’ve seen thus far this season, that gap has only widened. Dating back to last season, 11 of the 49ers’ 15 wins have come by 11 points or more, so they’re clearly capable of blowing inferior teams out, especially at home, where 7 of those 11 blowout wins have come.

The 49ers also have a massive edge health wise, almost 20 points better in SIC score (92.2 vs. 73.7), as they are close to full strength, while the Giants are missing top offensive weapon Saquon Barkley and top offensive lineman Andrew Thomas, among other smaller injury absences. I don’t love that this line has gone above 10, jumping to 10.5 from 9.5 on the early line last week, but the Giants’ near loss to the Cardinals last week without Andrew Thomas and the subsequent loss of Saquon Barkley late in last week’s game justifies that line movement. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but everything suggests this will be a very lopsided affair, so I don’t mind laying the 10.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -10.5

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers 2023 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The 49ers had a strange year in 2022. It goes back to the 2021 NFL Draft, when they traded away the equivalent of three first round picks, in addition to other later picks, to acquire the 3rd overall pick and select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, who had a sky high upside, but had only made 17 starts at the collegiate level due to injury and COVID cancellations. The 49ers already had Jimmy Garroppolo, who had a lot of success, including a Super Bowl appearance during the 2019 season, but the 49ers felt that Garoppolo benefited significantly from his supporting cast and that Lance gave them a higher upside in the long-term, while providing them with a much needed upgrade at the backup quarterback spot in the short-term, given Garoppolo’s history of injury issues. 

The plan was to start Garoppolo in 2021, with Lance as the backup, and then move Garoppolo and his expensive salary the following off-season, allowing the cheaper and hopefully better Trey Lance to take over in 2022 and beyond. Lance was underwhelming with a 59.9 PFF grade in two rookie year starts as a spot starter in the absence of Garoppolo, who led this team to an NFC Championship appearance, but fell just short of a Super Bowl appearance in a game in which Garoppolo had a mediocre performance. 

The 49ers seemed sure to move on from Garoppolo last off-season following that loss, but couldn’t find a suitor for Garoppolo’s salary because of his off-season shoulder injury and, with neither side having a better option, Garoppolo surprisingly agreed to return to the 49ers for the 2022 season on a reduced deal as Trey Lance’s backup. That proved to be a smart move for both sides, as Trey Lance unfortunately suffered a season ending injury after just 31 pass attempts in two games (55.0 QB rating, 53.1 PFF grade), giving Garoppolo the chance to get his old job back.

The 49ers started the 2022 season 3-4, but they had a lot of injuries early in the year. As the season went on, they got healthier, while Garoppolo proved to be an upgrade over Lance under center, and, perhaps most importantly, they acquired Christian McCaffrey in a trade from the Panthers in which the 49ers surrendered a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round pick, which proved to be well worth it. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all the credit, as his addition coincided closely with the insertion of Garoppolo into the starting lineup and the return of several other key players from injury, but the 49ers immediately won 4 in a row after McCaffrey became their featured back in week 8.

Those four wins took them to week 12, when it seemed like their season could have suddenly been over, with Garoppolo now suffering a season ending injury, leaving 7th round rookie Brock Purdy as the 49ers starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 49ers still had one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position, but Purdy seemed likely to be overmatched in the first action of his career. 

Instead, Purdy continued the 49ers’ success, winning his first 8 games to extend the winning streak to 12 games in a row, all the way up to the NFC Championship, when disaster struck again, with Purdy going down with an elbow injury early in the game. Backup Josh Johnson played admirably for a mid-season signing and essentially a 4th string quarterback, but when he too suffered an injury in the NFC Championship, the 49ers were essentially left without a passing attack, without a 3rd active quarterback, as one final quarterback injury that they couldn’t withstand put the nail in the coffin in a 31-7 loss.

The 49ers now head into the 2023 season still with among the most talent in the league around the quarterback, but with an unsettled situation under center. Garoppolo is now gone for good, signing a long-term deal with the Raiders in free agency. Brock Purdy played well enough that he figures to keep his job as long as he’s healthy, as he completed 67.1% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the regular season, and, while he benefited from a lot of talent around him, he was PFF’s 15th ranked quarterback with a 76.6 PFF grade over that stretch as well.

However, Purdy might not be ready for the start of the season after off-season surgery and, even if he is, he might not be 100% right away or he could prove to be a fluke, as we have still only seen a small sample size from him. The 49ers still have Trey Lance, who could start if Purdy isn’t ready for the beginning of the year, but he hasn’t shown a lot in limited action in his career and the 49ers took a flier on another former 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold this off-season and it’s very possible he jumps Lance on the depth chart. 

Darnold has just a 78.2 QB rating in 55 starts in his career, but he had a 92.6 QB rating in six starts last season with the Panthers after returning from injury, he has never had anywhere near as good of a coaching staff and supporting cast as he’ll have with the 49ers, and he’s only going into his age 26 season and could still have untapped upside. Both he and Lance have low floors, but they both come with upside as well and it’s very possible Darnold ends up as the week one starter if he beats out Lance and Purdy isn’t ready right away at the beginning of the year. It’s definitely a situation to watch, on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, this team went on a 12-game winning streak starting with the first game in which they used Christian McCaffrey in a feature back role after acquiring him in a trade from the Panthers. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all of the credit, as that coincided with this team getting healthier and getting better quarterback play under center with Jimmy Garoppolo and later Brock Purdy, rather than Trey Lance at the beginning of the year. However, McCaffrey’s impact on this offense still can’t be understated.

In many ways, McCaffrey was almost a perfect fit for the 49ers, who are a run heavy team (9th in the league with 504 rush attempts and just 27th in the league with 512 pass attempts) and who love dual threat players like McCaffrey that can excel in multiple different areas, as McCaffrey does as a runner and a receiver. Because he doesn’t have a real weakness, McCaffrey was a true every down back, playing 46.5 snaps per game in the 13 games after he became the featured back last season. 

McCaffrey’s 4.69 YPC and 6 touchdowns on 159 carries was impressive, but his biggest value to this team was as a receiver, as he finished the season second on the team with a 1.86 yards per route run average, 3rd in the NFL among eligible running backs, while turning 65 targets into a 52/464/4 slash line in 11 regular season games and receiving a 91.4 grade from PFF as a receiver, best in the NFL among eligible running backs. That’s pretty par for the course for a player who has exceeded 80 in receiving grade on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, while averaging 1.78 yards per route run and catching 442 passes for 3,756 yards and 22 touchdowns in 75 career games.

McCaffrey has also turned 1,025 carries into 4,726 yards and 38 touchdowns (4.61 YPC) in those 75 games in six seasons in the league. Injuries were a big problem for him in 2020 and 2021, limiting him to 212 touches in 10 games total across those two seasons, and, even if he’s not necessarily an injury prone player, exceeding 300 touches in the other three of his last five seasons in the league, he does play a position with a higher than average injury risk, especially for a player who sees the workload that McCaffrey does. However, McCaffrey is still only going into his age 27 season and is unlikely to start declining this season, so, if he can stay healthy, he should continue playing at a similar level as he has in recent years.

With this being a run-heavy team and McCaffrey seeing extra touches in the passing game, the 49ers do use other running backs to try to keep McCaffrey healthy. Their preferred #2 option at the running back position is Elijah Mitchell, who missed 12 regular season games with injury last season and found himself behind McCaffrey on the depth chart when he returned, but who still received 62 carries in 6 games that he played with McCaffrey on the roster, taking them for 4.69 YPC, not far behind McCaffrey himself, who had 69 carries in those 6 games.

Mitchell was just a 6th round pick in 2021, but he received 207 carries in 11 games as a rookie and took them for a 4.65 YPC average and 5 touchdowns, proving to be a great fit in the 49ers’ zone blocking scheme. He’s not much of a pass catcher, with a career 0.82 yards per route run average, and durability has been a problem for him, as he also missed 6 games as a rookie, but he has shown himself more than capable of playing a part-time role as an early down specialist, allowing the 49ers to be run-heavy and to frequently use McCaffrey in the passing game, without overloading him too much.

If Mitchell gets hurt, behind him on the depth chart the 49ers have 2022 3rd round pick Tyrion Davis-Price, who struggled with a 2.91 YPC on 34 rookie year carries, but who could be better in year two, and 2022 undrafted free agent Jordan Mason, who averaged 6.00 YPC on 43 rookie year carries, as well as a pair of 2023 undrafted free agents Khalan Laborn and Ronald Awatt, who have an outside chance of making this final roster. McCaffrey is obviously the focal point of this backfield, but they have good depth behind him as well and this blocking scheme has a history of getting the most out of overlooked running backs, so the 49ers should be in good shape at this position.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

McCaffrey was added to a receiving corps that already had a lot of playmakers in it and, given that, it’s reasonable to expect that the 49ers other pass catchers would see a statistical drop off when he was added. However, while the 49ers’ other pass catchers did see their target share drop, for the most part their efficiency improved so much with McCaffrey around that they didn’t see a significant drop off in total production. 

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings had slash lines that extrapolated to 78/940/5 on 131 targets, 78/981/7 on 119 targets, and 34/437/2 on 58 targets respectively before McCaffrey’s became the featured back. In the 13 games after McCaffrey became the featured back, their slash lines extrapolated to 70/861/2, 68/942/7, and 39/468/0 respectively on target totals of 117, 98, and 60 respectively. Tight end George Kittle had the biggest drop off in target share, from a 116 target pace to a 69 target pace, but he still only saw his extrapolated slash line fall from 85/952/3 to 59/849/13. All four of those aforementioned receivers are back for 2023, along with McCaffrey, so I would expect more of the same, barring a massive drop off in quarterback play.

If anything, Deebo Samuel could be even better in 2023 than he was last season, as last year was a down year for him, as his yards per route run average dropped to 1.69, from 2.51 over his first three seasons in the league from 2019-2021, including 2.98 yards per route run and a 77/1405/6 slash line on 121 targets in 2021 (11.61 yards per target, as opposed to 6.72 yards per target in 2022). He might not bounce back all the way in 2023 and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 15 games in four seasons in the league and limiting him in several others, but he didn’t need a huge target share to produce at that level in 2021 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he approached that level of production again if he can stay healthy in 2023, even with a lot of other options in this passing game.

Like many of the 49ers’ key players, Deebo Samuel is a dual threat, also adding 597 yards and 11 touchdowns on 101 carries over the past two seasons (5.91 YPC), lining up occasionally as a running back out of the backfield. Brandon Aiyuk is more of a traditional wide receiver, but the 2020 first round pick has developed into an above average one, going from a 60/748/5 slash line, 1.73 yards per route run average, and 80.1 PFF grade as a rookie to 56/816/5, 1.68, and 74.4 respectively in 2021 to 78/1015/8, 1.91, and 80.3 respectively in 2022. He’s not an elite wide receiver, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he could easily continue being an above average wide receiver for years to come.

Jauan Jennings is an underwhelming wide receiver, but he’s a decent option as the #3 wide receiver, averaging 1.38 yards per route run in that role over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a 7th round rookie in 2020. He will likely keep that job in 2023, though he could be challenged for the role by Danny Gray, a 2022 3rd round pick who only played 87 snaps as a rookie, but who could be ready for a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023.

Tight end George Kittle is the most likely of this bunch to see a statistical drop off in 2023. As I mentioned, his target share dropped off significantly once McCaffrey was added and, while he had a huge leap in efficiency at the same time, catching 85.5% of his passes for an average of 12.30 yards per attempt and a touchdown every 5.31 targets over a 13-game span, he’s unlikely to continue being quite that good in 2023, in part because no one is ever that good over an extended period of time, but also because he now is heading into his age 30 season and could be begin to decline soon. 

Meanwhile, Kittle’s decreased target share is likely to remain, given that he and McCaffrey operate in similar parts of the field. Kittle has also had consistent durability problems throughout his career, missing 16 games in six seasons in the league and being limited in several others, which not only means he could miss more time with injury this season, but it could also contribute to him declining quicker than expected as he goes into his 30s. 

All of this considered, I would expect Kittle to be a smaller part of this passing game this season than he has been in the past. Fortunately, Kittle is also an above average run blocker, which, combined with his career 2.34 yards per route run average, has led to him finishing above 80 overall on PFF in five straight seasons, so even if he declines, it will be from a pretty high level and he should remain above average as both a blocker and a pass catcher, one of the few tight ends in the league who can say so. 

The 49ers also added Alabama tight end Cameron Latu in the 3rd round of the draft to give them a younger development option at the position and he will compete with 2020 6th round pick Charlie Woerner to be the #2 tight end, a battle he could win even as a rookie, with Woerner having played just 567 snaps with a 0.72 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Both could play small roles in a receiving corps that has among the most talent of any in the league, especially when you consider the dual threat Christian McCaffrey.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The 49ers’ offensive line has been a strength for them for years, but they have lost significant players in each of the last two off-seasons. Last off-season, they lost starting center Alex Mack and starting left guard Laken Tomlinson and, while their replacements, 2021 2nd round pick Aaron Banks and career backup Jake Brendel respectively, both had decent seasons in 2022, with PFF grades of 62.7 in 16 starts and 64.9 in 17 starts respectively, this off-season they lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who had a 71.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, and their top option at right guard, Daniel Brunskill, who had a 69.0 PFF grade on 518 snaps, without really replacing either of them.

Swing tackle Colton McKivitz, a 2020 5th round pick, is likely the favorite to replace McGlinchey at right tackle, but he has played just 439 snaps in three seasons in the league and, while he hasn’t been horrible in that limited action, he will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from McGlinchey. Other candidates for the right tackle job are 2021 5th round pick Jaylon Moore and veteran free agent addition Matt Pryor, but Moore hasn’t shown much on 329 career snaps, while Pryor is a career backup who has been middling at best in 24 starts in five seasons in the league, so they would both be big downgrades from McGlinchey as well.

With Brunskill gone at right guard, that job will fall to Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who actually was their primary starter at the position last season, with 744 snaps played, but who also struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade and who is no guarantee to be significantly better in his second season in the league. Burford is almost definitely locked into that job, but only by default, with their best alternative probably being 2022 6th round pick Nick Zakelj, who played just 12 snaps as a rookie.

Brendel and Banks remain at center and left guard for the second straight seasons, without a better option or a competent backup on the roster at either spot. Banks is a former high draft pick who is only going into his third season in the league, so he should continue being at least a competent starter, with the upside to be even more. Brendel, however, is already in his age 31 season, despite last year being his first year as a primary starter, as the 2016 undrafted free agent had made just 3 starts across his first 6 seasons in the league prior to last season. It’s possible Brendel could continue being a decent starter, but he doesn’t have much upside and, given his age and lack of experience, he could easily regress this season.

The saving grace of this offensive line is dominant left tackle Trent Williams, who is their only starting offensive lineman remaining from two years ago and a player who, if he plays at his best, elevates this whole offensive line by a significant amount, coming off three seasons where he has received PFF grades of 91.9, 97.8, and 93.0, while finishing above 80 on PFF in 8 of his last 10 seasons. However, Williams is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of aging yet, it’s very possible he regresses at least a little bit this season, which would weaken this offensive line even more. Williams’ presence still elevates this group by a significant amount, but the rest of this group is pretty inexperienced and Williams age is becoming a concern.

Grade: B- 

Edge Defenders

In addition to all the talent the 49ers have around the quarterback on offense, the 49ers also have a lot of talented players on defense, retaining most of a defense that finished last season 1st in defensive DVOA. Probably the most talented of those players is edge defender Nick Bosa, who received the Defensive Player of the Year award for his performance in 2022, totaling 18.5 sacks (most in the NFL), 30 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while excelling against the run and finishing 3rd among edge defenders on PFF with a 90.9 overall grade on 745 snaps.

It was a career best year for Bosa, but it was nothing new for a player who has 43 sacks, 68 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate in 51 career games and who had previously received grades of 86.7, 84.9, and 88.3 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Bosa should continue playing at a very high level in 2023 and should be on the short list to defend his title and win Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight year.

The 49ers have a bit of a concern at the edge defender position behind Bosa though. Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam both played heavy rotational roles last season and fared pretty well, with Omenihu receiving a 67.5 PFF grade on 572 snaps and Ebukam receiving a 69.1 PFF grade on 559 snaps, but are no longer on the team. The 49ers have 2022 2nd round pick Drake Jackson set to play a bigger role in year two, after showing potential with a 64.1 grade on 315 snaps as a rookie, but, aside from him, the 49ers other options at the position are a pair of low end veteran free agent acquisitions Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant, as well as 5th round rookie Robert Beal, who would likely struggle if he played a significant role in year one.

Ferrell seems like their best reserve option, signed to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency. Ferrell has been a bust as the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t been a bad player either. He only has 10 sacks, 23 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate in 58 career games, but that’s in part because he’s lined up on the interior in some pass rush situations, where it’s harder to pressure the passer, and he’s been a solid run stuffer, leading to him finishing above 60 overall on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, with an average of 466 snaps played per season. 

Still only in his age 26 season, Ferrell may still have untapped upside and, at the very least, should be a solid rotational player. Bryant, on the other hand, was a 4th round pick in 2019 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of 247 snaps per season. He figures to continue struggling, even in what is likely to be a deep reserve role. Nick Bosa’s presence elevates this position group significantly and Drake Jackson has upside, but the 49ers are kind of top heavy at this position, after losing a pair of useful contributors from a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a relative weakness for the 49ers last season, with seven players playing at least 147, but no more than 357 snaps, with no one finishing above 63.3 on PFF. They should be significantly better in this group next season though. For one, they added Javon Hargrave on a big 4-year, 84 million dollar deal in free agency. That makes him the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, but it could easily be worth it, if he continues to play like he has in recent years.

His run defense has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he’s always been an effective pass rusher, with a 11.2% pressure rate in his career, and he’s been especially effective over the past seven seasons, finishing above 80 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 23 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 48 games. The one concern with Hargrave is he is going into his age 30 season and could begin declining soon, perhaps as soon as this season, but, even at less than his best, he should be a welcome addition for this position group.

Hargrave figures to start next to Arik Armstead, who could bounce back from a disappointing and injury plagued 2022 campaign to give them another above average every down player. From 2017-2021, Armstead finished above 70 on PFF in all five seasons, totaling 24 sacks, 29 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate over that stretch and also playing pretty well against the run, showing himself to be a well-rounded every down player by finishing above 60 in both pass rush and run defense grade in all five seasons and playing 45.9 snaps per game in 71 games. 

In 2022, however, Armstead played just 349 snaps in 9 games due to injury and finished with a 63.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Armstead now heads into his age 30 season and his best days could be behind him as a result. However, he’s also not totally over the hill and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, even if he’s not at his peak form, and he should be healthier and play a bigger role than a year ago. He and Hargrave could easily both be above average starters, which would make this group significantly better than a year ago.

The 49ers were originally counting on 2020 1st round pick Javon Kinlaw to be the long-term starter next to Armstead, but he has proven to be a bust thus far in his career, finishing with a 54.1 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, before missing 24 games and being limited to 311 snaps total over the next two seasons due to injury, while again failing to top a 60 grade on PFF in both seasons. Kinlaw still has untapped potential if he can stay healthy and the 49ers probably won’t need him to be anything more than a reserve, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s already in his age 26 season and there’s a good chance he doesn’t develop much beyond this.

The 49ers also have veterans Kerry Hyder (357 snaps) and Kevin Givens (354 snaps) returning to compete for reserve roles, although both are pretty underwhelming options. Hyder has had some solid years in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 67.7, 68.0, and 68.6 respectively on snap counts of 659, 439, and 722 respectively in 2016, 2019, and 2020 respectively, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in each of his other five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons.

Hyder now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him as a result, and he figures to remain an underwhelming option even as a reserve. Givens, meanwhile, has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career, while maxing out at 387 snaps in a season. Neither he nor Hyder should be guaranteed a roster spot, but one of them will probably have to serve in at least a deep reserve role. Fortunately, the 49ers have a great every down starting duo and could get more out of former first round pick Javon Kinlaw, now in a reserve role and hopefully healthy, so this is an above average group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The 49ers also had a pair of high level players at the off ball linebacker position, with Fred Warner (1,026 snaps) and Dre Greenlaw (850 snaps) finishing 4th and 7th respectively at the position with PFF grades of 83.7 and 81.2 respectively. For Warner, last year’s high level performance was nothing new, as the 2018 3rd round pick has been an every down starter since entering the league, playing at least 973 snaps every season and missing just 1 game ever, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three straight seasons over 75, with his career best year coming in 2020 when he had a 88.6 grade. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best every down linebackers in the league. 

For Greenlaw, however, 2022 was a career best year, as he had shown flashes of high level play in his first three seasons in the league, but he had never exceeded a 69.5 grade on PFF, while missing 16 games due to injury in three seasons. It’s possible the 2019 5th round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down linebacker for years to come, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did last season and he could easily regress or suffer another injury in 2023. I would still expect him to be at least a solid every down linebacker, but it might be hard for him to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row.

The 49ers lost Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency and he was one of the best 3rd linebackers in the league, a player with every down skills who was overqualified for his limited role, but he only played 313 snaps for them last season (67.8 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much, unless the 49ers have an injury at the position. The 49ers used a 6th round pick on TCU’s Dee Winters as a potential long-term replacement, but, most likely, the 3rd linebacker job will go to one of their top reserves from last year, either Oren Burks (156 snaps) or Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (81 snaps). 

Burks flashed potential in his limited role and was a 3rd round pick back in 2018, but he’s also only played 641 defensive snaps total in five seasons in the league and last season was the first of his career in which he didn’t finish below 60 on PFF. Flannigan-Fowles, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019 and has played just 306 nondescript snaps on defense in his career. Neither will have to play a big role, but the 49ers do use a 3rd linebacker in base packages and, if either of their top-2 linebackers got hurt, the 49ers would be forced to rely on one or both of Burks and Flannigan-Fowles in a significant role, which would be a problem. Warner and Greenlaw are a high level every down duo, even if Greenlaw isn’t a guarantee to be as good again as he was a year ago, but depth is a bit of a concern.

Grade: A

Secondary

One position that could be a weakness on this defense this season is the cornerback position. Top cornerback Charvarius Ward remains, coming off of a season in which he ranked 4th among cornerbacks with a 83.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he had never previously exceeded 69.5 in a season in four prior years in the league, so there’s a good chance he is unable to be quite as good again in 2023 and, even if he can repeat the best year of his career, the 49ers have a lot of concerns behind him at the position. Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both left in free agency and, while the former was a slot specialist who missed 5 games and played just 509 snaps total, and the latter was limited to 312 snaps in 5 games by injury, they still had impressive grades of 76.1 and 70.9 respectively on PFF and the 49ers don’t have any other cornerbacks who are likely to play at that level, even in a limited role.

The 49ers will almost definitely continue using 2021 5th pick Deommodore Lenior as one of their top-3 cornerbacks, after he played 887 snaps and made 13 starts a year ago, with Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both missing significant time with injury, and they added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency on a 2-year, 6.75 million dollar deal, which should lock him in as the other top-3 cornerback, with Oliver and Lenoir competing to be the nominal #2 cornerback. 

Lenoir struggled in that extended role last season though, posting a 55.9 grade on PFF, and there’s no guarantee he’s any better in 2023, as he wasn’t a high draft pick and also struggled on 238 snaps as a rookie. Oliver, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2018 and has shown flashes of impressive play, surpassing 70 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons, but he’s also missed a total of 20 games over those three seasons combined and, in his only two full seasons as a starter in his career (2019 and 2020), he finished below 60 on PFF, so he’s never played at a high level for an extended period of time. He still has potential if he can stay healthy, but he’s not really a reliable option.

With Lenoir likely to struggle and Oliver unreliable, the 49ers could need significant playing time out of their reserve cornerbacks. Samuel Womack, a 2022 5th round pick who flashed potential on 146 rookie year snaps, seems like the best of the bunch, but he’s still an unproven player who wasn’t drafted highly. Ambry Thomas was a higher pick, going in the 3rd round in 2021, but he struggled mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and wasn’t much better while only playing 41 snaps in his second season in the league last year. The 49ers also added South Alabama’s Darrell Luter in the 5th round of the draft and signed veteran Myles Hartsfield, though the former would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, while the latter has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, playing 475 snaps per snaps as a mostly a slot specialist with the Panthers.

At safety, the 49ers return Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson, who were solid with PFF grades of 68.8 and 67.2 respectively last season, while starting all 17 games. Hufanaga should have a similar season in 2023. He was only a 6th round pick in 2021, but flashed potential on 395 snaps as a rookie, before being a solid starter a year ago. He might not have much more untapped upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued being a solid starter for years to come. 

Gipson, on the other hand, is now going into his age 33 season and is much less safe of a bet to continue being a solid starter. Gipson has been a starter for most of his 11-year NFL career (149 starts), but he hasn’t always been the most consistent player, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons and, now well into his 30s, there’s a good chance he ends up struggling this season. Perhaps with that in mind, the 49ers used a 3rd round pick on Penn State’s Ja’Ayir Brown as a potential long-term replacement, but it’s unclear how much of a positive impact he’ll be able to make in year one. With Gipson potentially being a liability and questions at cornerback, this secondary is the relative weakness of this defense, but this isn’t a bad unit either.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 49ers still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but there are questions at the quarterback position, with Brock Purdy being inexperienced and coming off of a major injury and Sam Darnold and Trey Lance both having upside, but also considerable downside. They also aren’t quite as talented overall as they have been in recent years, especially on the offensive line, which has lost four of five starters just since a couple years ago, which could easily end up being a concern, especially when you pair it with their questions at the quarterback position. 

The 49ers are still a high level team in by far the least talented of the two conferences, so they should have a pretty clear path to winning a bunch of regular season games and making a run into the post-season, but I wouldn’t put them in the top tier contender category, as most of the top teams in the AFC are still better than the 49ers and I wouldn’t say they are the top team in the NFC either. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC West

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (7-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

The 49ers began this season just 3-4, but they had a lot of injury problems early in the season and, once they got healthy and acquired feature back Christian McCaffrey in a trade, the 49ers looked like one of the best teams in the league and a legitimate Super Bowl, with among the most non-quarterback talent in the league. Their Super Bowl ambitions seemed to be threatened when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went down for the season with an injury a few weeks ago, leaving unproven 7th round rookie Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback for the rest of the season.

However, Purdy has more or less picked up where Garoppolo left off, playing well enough to win and taking advantage of all of the talent around him to push the 49ers’ winning streak to seven games. Now the general consensus seems to be that the 49ers aren’t any worse off with Purdy under center, but I think that might be a little premature, given that he’s still only played about two and a half games and the rest of the league is just starting to learn his tendencies. It’s possible he will continue playing this well and prove to not be a downgrade, but I think it’s too early to say that definitively.

This line, favoring the 49ers by a touchdown over a capable but underwhelming Commanders team, seems to assume that Purdy will continue playing as well as he’s played and that could be the case, but, if he happens to have his first bad game this week, the 49ers will definitely be overvalued as favorites of this many points. With that in mind, I am going to take the Commanders for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident enough in them to bet on them, as Purdy could easily continue playing at the level he’s played at, in which case a multiple score win by the 49ers would definitely be possible.

Update: Safety Kamren Curl, one of the Commanders’ best defensive players, is surprisingly out for this game. Despite that, this line has dropped to 6.5. I am going to change this pick to the 49ers, but for a no confidence pick.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -6.5

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the 49ers were just 1.5-point favorites in this game in Seattle, but the line has since shifted to 3.5, a significant shift, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly, with one in four games being decided by 1-3 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. In this case, the 49ers blew out the Buccaneers last week, while the Seahawks lost as home favorites to the Panthers.

The 49ers’ win over the Buccaneers was legitimate, but I don’t know how much stock I would put into the Seahawks’ loss to the Panthers, considering the Seahawks were likely caught looking forward to this much bigger game on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The 49ers were technically in the same spot last week, but the situations weren’t quite the same, as the Seahawks were facing a last place team before facing a divisional rival who blew them out earlier this season, while the 49ers were facing a better team and starting a third string quarterback in his first career start, a situation in which teams usually tend to be more focused, as they usually can’t afford not to be.

The Seahawks were also missing their feature back Kenneth Walker last week, whose absence led to the Seahawks getting nothing from their running game, and they were facing a Panthers team that is significantly better now with Sam Darnold and Steve Wilks as quarterback and head coach than they were with Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule earlier in the season. Walker is back this week for the Seahawks and I would expect a much better effort from the Seahawks in a much bigger game for them, while the 49ers could have a little bit of a hangover effect from last week’s big blowout win and, as a result, are unlikely to bring their best effort again, facing a Seahawks team they’ve already beaten once this season.

With all that in mind, I like the line value we’re getting with the Seahawks as home underdogs of more than a field goal. In fact, my calculated line is still San Francisco -1, with the 49ers possessing just a 2.5-point edge in both my roster rankings and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. The Seahawks have a couple key questionable players on defense, safety Ryan Neal and interior defender Al Woods, who I expect to miss this game after not practicing all week, which will limit this bet, but my calculated line takes those absences into account, so the Seahawks are still bettable at +3.5 and, if Neal and/or Woods happen to play and this line stays put, I would consider increasing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season last week and are now starting 7th round rookie Brock Purdy, set to make the first start of his career this week, but, despite that, this line has only dropped from favoring the 49ers by 6.5 last week on the early line to favoring them by 3.5 points this week, which is a relatively insignificant line movement, especially when you consider that the 49ers could be without stud edge defender Nick Bosa, who seems likely to be limited even if he can play, after not practicing all week. This line is also still bigger than you might realize, when you consider that 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal. 

On top of that, the 49ers are in a tough spot, having to turn around and play a key divisional game against the Seahawks next Thursday on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers aren’t in good shape injury wise either, missing top edge defender Shaq Barrett, starting safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards, and stud right tackle Tristan Wirfs, but those players have all been out for multiple weeks now, so they wouldn’t affect the line movement in this game. My calculated line barely favors the 49ers, doing so by just 1.5 points, so we’re still getting enough line value with the Buccaneers for them to be worth a small bet this week.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Dolphins have a 8-3 record, among the best in the league, but they’re even better than that, as they’ve won all eight games started and finished by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Despite that, they are 4-point underdogs this week in San Francisco. The 49ers are one of the better teams in the league, ranking 5th in point differential (+76) and 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency (about 5 points above average) and they are arguably even better than that, as they are healthier and more talented than they were earlier in the season, but it’s hard to justify them being favored by this many points against a team as good as the Dolphins.

There’s not quite enough here for the Dolphins to be worth betting and they will be without talented left tackle Terron Armstead, but the 49ers could be without one of their best offensive playmakers Deebo Samuel and, overall, my calculated line has the 49ers as favored by a field goal at most, which is significant line value, given that about 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points exactly, so the Dolphins should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, even if they’re not quite bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

The 49ers are just 6-4, but there’s an argument to be made that they’re the best team in the NFC and they look like one of the top few Super Bowl contenders overall. They rank 5th in both point differential (+63) and schedule adjusted efficiency (about five points above average) and are arguably even better than that, as they are healthier and more talented than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense is also healthier now than a few weeks ago, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action recently.

The 49ers showed this on Monday Night Football last week, demolishing the Cardinals by a final score of 38-10 in one of the most lopsided games of the season (+9.82% first down rate, +2.37 yards per play), and that tends to carry over into the next week, with teams covering the spread at a 60.0% rate the week after winning by 21 points or more on Monday Night Football. However, we’re not really getting line value with the 49ers as 9.5-point home favorites over the Saints, as the public and the oddsmakers seem to understand that the 49ers are significantly better than their record.

If anything, the Saints are the team that is being a little underrated here, as they are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, with key players like Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, and Marshon Lattimore seeming likely to return on defense, and, even with all of their injuries, they have played better than their record, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency, with their biggest problem being their league worst -12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. My calculated line actually gives us a little line value with the visitor, with the 49ers favored by 7.5 points. That’s not nearly enough line value to take the Saints with any confidence though and, with the 49ers being in a significantly better spot, I would still take them for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (4-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4) in Mexico City

Typically the rule of thumb is to take the favorite in neutral site international games, as the better team tends to have a bigger international fan base and tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like this, leading to the favorite covering at a 62.8% rate (27-16 ATS) all-time. The 49ers are 8-point favorites, but that’s probably not high enough. The Cardinals are 4-6, which isn’t bad, but they have needed a +5 turnover margin (5th best in the NFL) just to sustain that mediocre record and turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week. Meanwhile, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Cardinals rank just 25th, four points below average.

My roster rankings have the Cardinals even worse, 8.5 points below average, due to injuries, primarily on the offensive line, with arguably their top-4 offensive linemen left tackle DJ Humphries, left guard Justin Pugh, right guard Will Hernandez and center Rodney Hudson all out. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray is also questionable and, while backup Colt McCoy is a decent replacement, he doesn’t give this offense the same upside as Murray, especially behind an injured offensive line and, even if Murray plays, he might not be quick as mobile this week, due to his lingering hamstring injury, also a problem behind a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are much better than their 5-4 record, ranking 8th in point differential at +35 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, five points above average. The 49ers are also healthier now than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense also got healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action last week. My calculated line has the 49ers favored by 11.5 on a neutral site and, in a good spot as well, I think the 49ers are bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)

The 49ers are favored by a touchdown at home against the Chargers, which might seem like a lot if you look at these two teams’ records, but neither team’s record tells the whole story. The Chargers are 5-3, but their only win by more than one score came by 10 points against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans, while two of their three losses came by 14 points or more, giving them a point differential of -22. The Chargers are even worse than that in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th, 4.5 points below average.

The Chargers had a lot of promise coming into the season, but injuries have been a huge problem for them, leading to them ranking significantly below average in my roster rankings as well, 3.5 points below average, which largely lines up with schedule adjusted efficiency. While center Corey Linsley has returned, the Chargers this week will be without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Wallace, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and expected #1 cornerback JC Jackson, among other lesser injuries.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are getting healthier coming out of their bye week. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three will play this week, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense is also getting healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action.

The 49ers have also played better than their 4-4 record even with all of their injuries, ranking 9th in point differential at +29 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average. With the reinforcements they have gotten in recent weeks, I have the 49ers 5 points above average, with the Chargers 3.5 points below. That gives us a calculated line of around San Francisco -10, so we’re actually getting some line value with the 49ers, as high as this line is. This isn’t a big play, but the 49ers are worth betting this week and, if this line happens to go down to 6.5, this would become a bigger play.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)

The 49ers added Christian McCaffrey to an already talented roster last week and figure to feature him in something resembling a full role this week, giving the 49ers among the most top level talent in the league, but they also have had consistent injury problems all season, which, along with underwhelming quarterback play, is why they sit at 3-4. Players like edge defender Nick Bosa, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, and safety Jimmie Ward have all missed time with injury and have since returned this season, but this week they’ll be without top wide receiver Deebo Samuel, talented linebacker Dre Greenlaw, stud defensive linemen Arik Armstead, and starting cornerback Emmanuel Mosley.

The Rams have also disappointed in part due to injury, but they do get some reinforcements out of the bye week, with wide receiver Van Jefferson and center Brian Allen returning to action. I still have the 49ers a point and a half better than the Rams overall, which ordinarily would give us some line value with the Rams as 1-point home underdogs, but the Rams probably won’t have much homefield advantage in this game against the 49ers, whose fans outnumber the Rams significantly and who will travel for this game. With that in mind, this line is about right, but I’m still taking the Rams, if only for a no confidence pick, because they’ve had a little bit more time to prepare.

Los Angeles Rams 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1

Confidence: None