49ers

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (7-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

The 49ers began this season just 3-4, but they had a lot of injury problems early in the season and, once they got healthy and acquired feature back Christian McCaffrey in a trade, the 49ers looked like one of the best teams in the league and a legitimate Super Bowl, with among the most non-quarterback talent in the league. Their Super Bowl ambitions seemed to be threatened when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went down for the season with an injury a few weeks ago, leaving unproven 7th round rookie Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback for the rest of the season.

However, Purdy has more or less picked up where Garoppolo left off, playing well enough to win and taking advantage of all of the talent around him to push the 49ers’ winning streak to seven games. Now the general consensus seems to be that the 49ers aren’t any worse off with Purdy under center, but I think that might be a little premature, given that he’s still only played about two and a half games and the rest of the league is just starting to learn his tendencies. It’s possible he will continue playing this well and prove to not be a downgrade, but I think it’s too early to say that definitively.

This line, favoring the 49ers by a touchdown over a capable but underwhelming Commanders team, seems to assume that Purdy will continue playing as well as he’s played and that could be the case, but, if he happens to have his first bad game this week, the 49ers will definitely be overvalued as favorites of this many points. With that in mind, I am going to take the Commanders for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident enough in them to bet on them, as Purdy could easily continue playing at the level he’s played at, in which case a multiple score win by the 49ers would definitely be possible.

Update: Safety Kamren Curl, one of the Commanders’ best defensive players, is surprisingly out for this game. Despite that, this line has dropped to 6.5. I am going to change this pick to the 49ers, but for a no confidence pick.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -6.5

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

A week ago on the early line, the 49ers were just 1.5-point favorites in this game in Seattle, but the line has since shifted to 3.5, a significant shift, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly, with one in four games being decided by 1-3 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. In this case, the 49ers blew out the Buccaneers last week, while the Seahawks lost as home favorites to the Panthers.

The 49ers’ win over the Buccaneers was legitimate, but I don’t know how much stock I would put into the Seahawks’ loss to the Panthers, considering the Seahawks were likely caught looking forward to this much bigger game on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The 49ers were technically in the same spot last week, but the situations weren’t quite the same, as the Seahawks were facing a last place team before facing a divisional rival who blew them out earlier this season, while the 49ers were facing a better team and starting a third string quarterback in his first career start, a situation in which teams usually tend to be more focused, as they usually can’t afford not to be.

The Seahawks were also missing their feature back Kenneth Walker last week, whose absence led to the Seahawks getting nothing from their running game, and they were facing a Panthers team that is significantly better now with Sam Darnold and Steve Wilks as quarterback and head coach than they were with Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule earlier in the season. Walker is back this week for the Seahawks and I would expect a much better effort from the Seahawks in a much bigger game for them, while the 49ers could have a little bit of a hangover effect from last week’s big blowout win and, as a result, are unlikely to bring their best effort again, facing a Seahawks team they’ve already beaten once this season.

With all that in mind, I like the line value we’re getting with the Seahawks as home underdogs of more than a field goal. In fact, my calculated line is still San Francisco -1, with the 49ers possessing just a 2.5-point edge in both my roster rankings and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency. The Seahawks have a couple key questionable players on defense, safety Ryan Neal and interior defender Al Woods, who I expect to miss this game after not practicing all week, which will limit this bet, but my calculated line takes those absences into account, so the Seahawks are still bettable at +3.5 and, if Neal and/or Woods happen to play and this line stays put, I would consider increasing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season last week and are now starting 7th round rookie Brock Purdy, set to make the first start of his career this week, but, despite that, this line has only dropped from favoring the 49ers by 6.5 last week on the early line to favoring them by 3.5 points this week, which is a relatively insignificant line movement, especially when you consider that the 49ers could be without stud edge defender Nick Bosa, who seems likely to be limited even if he can play, after not practicing all week. This line is also still bigger than you might realize, when you consider that 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal. 

On top of that, the 49ers are in a tough spot, having to turn around and play a key divisional game against the Seahawks next Thursday on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers aren’t in good shape injury wise either, missing top edge defender Shaq Barrett, starting safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards, and stud right tackle Tristan Wirfs, but those players have all been out for multiple weeks now, so they wouldn’t affect the line movement in this game. My calculated line barely favors the 49ers, doing so by just 1.5 points, so we’re still getting enough line value with the Buccaneers for them to be worth a small bet this week.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Dolphins have a 8-3 record, among the best in the league, but they’re even better than that, as they’ve won all eight games started and finished by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Despite that, they are 4-point underdogs this week in San Francisco. The 49ers are one of the better teams in the league, ranking 5th in point differential (+76) and 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency (about 5 points above average) and they are arguably even better than that, as they are healthier and more talented than they were earlier in the season, but it’s hard to justify them being favored by this many points against a team as good as the Dolphins.

There’s not quite enough here for the Dolphins to be worth betting and they will be without talented left tackle Terron Armstead, but the 49ers could be without one of their best offensive playmakers Deebo Samuel and, overall, my calculated line has the 49ers as favored by a field goal at most, which is significant line value, given that about 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points exactly, so the Dolphins should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, even if they’re not quite bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

The 49ers are just 6-4, but there’s an argument to be made that they’re the best team in the NFC and they look like one of the top few Super Bowl contenders overall. They rank 5th in both point differential (+63) and schedule adjusted efficiency (about five points above average) and are arguably even better than that, as they are healthier and more talented than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense is also healthier now than a few weeks ago, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action recently.

The 49ers showed this on Monday Night Football last week, demolishing the Cardinals by a final score of 38-10 in one of the most lopsided games of the season (+9.82% first down rate, +2.37 yards per play), and that tends to carry over into the next week, with teams covering the spread at a 60.0% rate the week after winning by 21 points or more on Monday Night Football. However, we’re not really getting line value with the 49ers as 9.5-point home favorites over the Saints, as the public and the oddsmakers seem to understand that the 49ers are significantly better than their record.

If anything, the Saints are the team that is being a little underrated here, as they are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, with key players like Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, and Marshon Lattimore seeming likely to return on defense, and, even with all of their injuries, they have played better than their record, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency, with their biggest problem being their league worst -12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. My calculated line actually gives us a little line value with the visitor, with the 49ers favored by 7.5 points. That’s not nearly enough line value to take the Saints with any confidence though and, with the 49ers being in a significantly better spot, I would still take them for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (4-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4) in Mexico City

Typically the rule of thumb is to take the favorite in neutral site international games, as the better team tends to have a bigger international fan base and tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like this, leading to the favorite covering at a 62.8% rate (27-16 ATS) all-time. The 49ers are 8-point favorites, but that’s probably not high enough. The Cardinals are 4-6, which isn’t bad, but they have needed a +5 turnover margin (5th best in the NFL) just to sustain that mediocre record and turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week. Meanwhile, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Cardinals rank just 25th, four points below average.

My roster rankings have the Cardinals even worse, 8.5 points below average, due to injuries, primarily on the offensive line, with arguably their top-4 offensive linemen left tackle DJ Humphries, left guard Justin Pugh, right guard Will Hernandez and center Rodney Hudson all out. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray is also questionable and, while backup Colt McCoy is a decent replacement, he doesn’t give this offense the same upside as Murray, especially behind an injured offensive line and, even if Murray plays, he might not be quick as mobile this week, due to his lingering hamstring injury, also a problem behind a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are much better than their 5-4 record, ranking 8th in point differential at +35 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, five points above average. The 49ers are also healthier now than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense also got healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action last week. My calculated line has the 49ers favored by 11.5 on a neutral site and, in a good spot as well, I think the 49ers are bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)

The 49ers are favored by a touchdown at home against the Chargers, which might seem like a lot if you look at these two teams’ records, but neither team’s record tells the whole story. The Chargers are 5-3, but their only win by more than one score came by 10 points against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans, while two of their three losses came by 14 points or more, giving them a point differential of -22. The Chargers are even worse than that in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th, 4.5 points below average.

The Chargers had a lot of promise coming into the season, but injuries have been a huge problem for them, leading to them ranking significantly below average in my roster rankings as well, 3.5 points below average, which largely lines up with schedule adjusted efficiency. While center Corey Linsley has returned, the Chargers this week will be without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Wallace, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and expected #1 cornerback JC Jackson, among other lesser injuries.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are getting healthier coming out of their bye week. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three will play this week, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense is also getting healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action.

The 49ers have also played better than their 4-4 record even with all of their injuries, ranking 9th in point differential at +29 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average. With the reinforcements they have gotten in recent weeks, I have the 49ers 5 points above average, with the Chargers 3.5 points below. That gives us a calculated line of around San Francisco -10, so we’re actually getting some line value with the 49ers, as high as this line is. This isn’t a big play, but the 49ers are worth betting this week and, if this line happens to go down to 6.5, this would become a bigger play.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)

The 49ers added Christian McCaffrey to an already talented roster last week and figure to feature him in something resembling a full role this week, giving the 49ers among the most top level talent in the league, but they also have had consistent injury problems all season, which, along with underwhelming quarterback play, is why they sit at 3-4. Players like edge defender Nick Bosa, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, and safety Jimmie Ward have all missed time with injury and have since returned this season, but this week they’ll be without top wide receiver Deebo Samuel, talented linebacker Dre Greenlaw, stud defensive linemen Arik Armstead, and starting cornerback Emmanuel Mosley.

The Rams have also disappointed in part due to injury, but they do get some reinforcements out of the bye week, with wide receiver Van Jefferson and center Brian Allen returning to action. I still have the 49ers a point and a half better than the Rams overall, which ordinarily would give us some line value with the Rams as 1-point home underdogs, but the Rams probably won’t have much homefield advantage in this game against the 49ers, whose fans outnumber the Rams significantly and who will travel for this game. With that in mind, this line is about right, but I’m still taking the Rams, if only for a no confidence pick, because they’ve had a little bit more time to prepare.

Los Angeles Rams 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3)

The Chiefs have a pair of losses, but both of them were games they easily could have won. One of the losses came by 4 points on a late drive against a Bills team that is arguably the best in the league, while the other came against the Colts in a game in which the Chiefs lost the turnover battle by one and in which their backup kicker missed an extra point and a field goal, leading to a 3-point loss, despite the Chiefs winning the first down rate battle by 5.50% and the yards per play battle by 1.50, which are both significantly more predictive than turnovers or special teams. Even with their two losses, the Chiefs still rank 1st in the NFL in every major offensive category, points, first down rate, and schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, with the latter being a metric in which they are over two points better than any other team in the league. 

That’s a great sign for the Chiefs going forward because offensive performance is significantly more predictive week-to-week than defensive performance, and the Chiefs haven’t been bad on defense either, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while their typically strong special teams unit should be better going forward with regular kicker Harrison Butker now healthy again. Even with a mediocre special teams unit taken into account, the Chiefs still rank 2nd in schedule adjusted overall efficiency, only behind the dominant Bills, who happen to be the only team to beat the Chiefs in a game in which the Chiefs had a healthy kicker this season.

The 49ers, on the other hand, are known for their offensive skill position players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, but rank below average in points per game (20th), first down rate (19th), and schedule adjusted offensive efficiency (20th). Some put the majority of the blame for that on their quarterback play, but the bigger culprit has been their offensive line, which hasn’t played nearly as well as a year ago. They’ll get left tackle Trent Williams back this week for the first time since week 3, a huge re-addition because he is arguably the best left tackle in the league when healthy, but the 49ers are still missing a trio of offensive line starters from a year ago, all of whom have been replaced by players who are not playing as well.

The 49ers acquired former Panthers feature back Christian McCaffrey in a trade this week to give them yet another offensive playmaker and, while he could easily have a big impact for them in the future, he’s unlikely to factor significantly into this game, having just joined the team a few days ago. The 49ers have dominant defense, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, which more or less matches how their defense ranks in my roster rankings, but their special teams has struggled again this season, ranking 27th in schedule adjusted efficiency after ranking 28th last season, and, overall, I have them 5.5 points behind the Chiefs.

With that in mind, my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by a field goal in this game, on the road in San Francisco. Given that, we are getting some line value with the Chiefs as mere 1-point favorites, but that’s not quite enough for the Chiefs to be betting. They are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes and, in matchups between dominant offenses and dominant defenses, the team with the dominant offense tends to win more often, but this is only a low confidence pick because we’re not getting significant line value.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

The 49ers won in a blowout as 6.5-point road favorites in Carolina last week, but it was surprising to see them still be 4.5-point road favorites in this game in Atlanta this week. The Falcons are a much more competent and better coached team than the Panthers and the 49ers’ still have concerns on offense that will show up in a tougher matchup. Even after last week’s performance in Carolina, the 49ers rank 21st in both first down rate and schedule adjusted efficiency and they also rank below average in my roster rankings on offense.

The 49ers still have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but their running back group is depleted by injury and their offensive line lost a trio of starters this off-season and now is without Trent Williams, who will be filled in for this week by third stringer Jaylon Moore, after backup Colton McKivitz played admirably in their first game without Williams two weeks ago, before suffering an injury of his own. The 49ers have a strong defense, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they’ve struggled on special teams as well and, with offensive performance being significantly more predictive than defensive performance, the 49ers rank just 14th in overall efficiency, just a half point above average, while being a half point below average in my roster rankings, due to injuries. 

Given that, this line is way too high on the road against a competent Falcons team that has been competitive in all of their games, despite an above average schedule. My calculated line has the Falcons favored by 1.5 points, so we’re getting great line value with them at +4.5. The 49ers are also in a tough spot, with a bigger game on deck against the Chiefs that could easily be a distraction and make this a trap game. This is my favorite pick this week and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Atlanta Falcons 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +185

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week