New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4)
The Patriots play again a few days after this game, facing the Vikings on Thanksgiving, which would normally put the Patriots in a bad spot, as favorites cover at just a 44.6% rate before Thursday Night Football, but the Patriots are also coming off of a bye, which might nullify that somewhat. There isn’t a large sample size of favorites playing between a bye week and a Thursday game, but teams are 9-10 ATS in that spot, which isn’t good, but it’s not particularly bad either and it makes sense that having extra rest beforehand would somewhat offset having an upcoming short turnaround, so I wouldn’t shy away from the Patriots this week just because they have to play again a few days after this one.
That being said, I do still like the Jets a little bit at +3.5, as I expect this to be a close, low scoring game, with two teams that have much better defenses than offenses. About 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer and this seems likely to be one of them. However, this is a no confidence pick and, if the line were to move to three, I would like the Patriots at that number more than I like the Jets at this number, so I would change my pick in that circumstance. Either way, there’s nothing worth betting on here and this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.
New England Patriots 19 New York Jets 16
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5