Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Texans were 9.5-point underdogs on the early line, but this line has since ballooned to 14. The Dolphins were on bye last week and didn’t play, so this line movement is purely the result of the Texans’ loss to the Commanders last week and the Texans subsequent decision to bench quarterback Davis Mills for backup Kyle Allen. That seems to be an overreaction though, as one bad game shouldn’t cause that big of a line movement, while the switch from Mills to Allen is largely a lateral move, as Mills was arguably the worst starting quarterback in the league.

The Dolphins are undefeated in the seven games that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished this season, but they aren’t exactly blowing teams out, with just one win that would have covered this 14-point spread. The Texans, meanwhile, have been competitive in most of their losses, with just one loss that would have covered this spread. The Texans are also in a better spot, as the Dolphins could easily overlook the team with the worst record in the league, with a much tougher game against the 49ers on deck. Teams cover at just a 41.6% rate all-time as favorites of a touchdown or more when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage that is 50% less than their next opponent’s winning percentage, which is the case here. This isn’t a big bet, but the Texans are bettable this week.

Miami Dolphins 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +14

Confidence: Medium