Quarterback

No team has a wider range of outcomes at the quarterback position than Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa came into the league with a lot of upside as the 6th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he was pretty underwhelming across his first two seasons in the league, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions (88.8 QB rating) in 21 starts, receiving season-long grades of 65.4 and 68.3 from PFF, and on multiple occasions getting injured or getting benched for a veteran mid-game.

However, going into his third season in the league in 2022, Tagovailoa got a much needed change of coaching on offense, with former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel becoming the new head coach and implementing a Shanahan style scheme, and he got much needed improvements in his supporting cast, which led to Tagovailoa being one of the best quarterbacks in the league to start last season. Through week 12, Tagovailoa completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 9.03 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions (115.7 QB rating) and he had a 91.1 PFF grade, while winning all eight games in which he started and finished, with another two and a half games lost to injury. 

Unfortunately, that’s where Tagovailoa’s story takes another turn as, after that hot start, he cooled down very quickly, completing just 52.6% of his passes for an average of 8.48 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (80.5 QB rating) with a 52.1 PFF grade in his final 4 starts, all of which were losses. Making matters worse, Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the season in week 16, which not only ended his year for good after costing him some time earlier in the season, but also puts his long-term future in doubt, as another significant concussion could be career-threatening or career-ending. 

Heading into the off-season, a key one in which the Dolphins had to make a decision on guaranteeing Tagovailoa’s 23.171 million dollar option for 2024, it was tough to know what to make of Tagovailoa’s long-term projection, as he produced at an MVP level for the first half of last season, but has otherwise been mediocre as a starter and his high level of production last season might have been more because of the system and talent around him, rather than him legitimately playing like an elite quarterback, and now with that the league has caught on to the Dolphins’ scheme a little bit, Tagovailoa may continue to struggle. On top of that, there is also the long-term injury risk. 

The Dolphins picked up the option, unwilling to effectively give up on Tagovailoa by declining it, but they haven’t committed to a long-term extension with him yet, with Tagovailoa set to hit free agency after 2024. Tagovailoa legitimately has the potential to be among the top quarterbacks and MVP candidates this season if he can stay healthy and play up to his potential, but he also just as easily could get hurt, and, even if he manages to stay healthy, he could continue to struggle like he did in the second half of last season and for much of the first two seasons of his career. 

The Dolphins have continued to aggressively build this roster this off-season, ranking 8th in average annual value of the contracts on their roster, a stat that correlates heavily with winning, so if Tagovailoa plays close to the high end of his range of projections, the Dolphins are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and if he struggles or gets hurt, he would be holding a talented team back from reaching its goals. The uncertainty at this position makes the Dolphins a tough team to project this season, but their upside is as high as any team in the league.

With Tagovailoa’s performance and durability being question marks, the backup quarterback position takes on more importance. Last season, reserves Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson threw 184 passes and made four starts, completing 59.2% of those passes for 6.61 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions (72.2 QB rating), which isn’t horrible production, but they were aided by the scheme and talent around them and the Dolphins went just 1-4 in the five games in which Bridgewater and/or Thompson played all or most of the game, as opposed to 8-4 in games in which Tagovailoa played most of the game. 

The Dolphins let Bridgewater walk this off-season and, unwilling to commit to 2022 7th round pick Skylar Thompson as the primary backup, they replaced Bridgewater with another veteran, former Jets quarterback Mike White, who gets paid towards the higher end of the price range for backup quarterbacks on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal. White was a 5th round pick in 2018 by the Cowboys, but never threw a regular season pass until 2021 with the Jets, with whom he made seven starts over the past two seasons and completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (75.4 QB rating). He’s a solid backup and the Dolphins are talented enough around him that they could survive him starting for an extended period of time, but they will need Tagovailoa to stay relatively healthy and play at close to his highest level for this team to legitimately compete at the highest level. It’s one of the most unpredictable situations in the NFL.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest thing the Dolphins did to upgrade their supporting cast last off-season was acquiring Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill came at a steep price, costing the Dolphins a first and second round pick, as well as an extension that would set Hill up to make 95.865 million over the next four seasons, but, along with Jaylen Waddle, who the Dolphins added the off-season before with the 6th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Dolphins had the best wide receiver duo in the league last season. Hill and Waddle were just one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving last season and they were the only duo to both surpass 1200 yards receiving, doing so by a pretty wide margin, taking 170 targets and 117 targets respectively for slash lines of 119/1710/7 and 75/1356/8 respectively, ranking them second and seventh respectively in the NFL in terms of receiving yardage.

Those slash lines and target totals come out to an average completion percentage of 67.6%, an average of 10.7 yards per target, and 15 touchdowns to 8 interceptions when targeted, good for a QB rating of 108.7 when targeted, almost 14 points above their team average. They accounted for 51.1% of their team’s targets and a whopping 64.3% of their team’s receiving yardage. In terms of yards per route run, Hill and Waddle ranked 1st and 3rd respectively among wide receivers at 3.20 and 2.59, and in PFF grade they ranked 1st and 10th respectively at 92.1 and 83.9. For both players, it was a career best year in terms of receiving yards, but there is reason to believe they can at least come close to repeating last year’s performance again in 2023. 

Hill is still in his prime in his age 29 season and had averaged a 95/1368/11 slash line per 17 games in his five seasons in Kansas City prior to joining the Dolphins last off-season, exceeding 80 on PFF in all five seasons, while Waddle is still only going into his third season in the league and has shown the potential to be one of the best wide receivers in the league even dating back to his rookie season, when his 78.3 PFF grade, 104/1015/6 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run average were all impressive for a rookie who was playing on an overall underwhelming offense. 

Waddle and Hill are both among the best wide receivers in the league and, even if they aren’t quite as good as a year ago, they still have a good chance to remain the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, as the gap between them and the rest of the league was pretty big last season. With Hill and Waddle as their top-two, there wasn’t much need for other targets in this passing game, but the Dolphins did have an underwhelming receiving corps behind them last season, which would have been a problem had either one of Hill or Waddle suffered a significant injury, and their depth doesn’t seem much better this season, so that remains a concern.

Trent Sherfield and Mike Gesicki averaged just 1.04 yards per route and 1.02 yards per route run as the #3 wide receiver and top receiving tight end respectively last season and are no longer with the team. Slot specialist Braxton Berrios was signed to replace Sherfield and the Dolphins took a flier on veteran Robbie Anderson as well, while Cedrick Wilson, who they signed to a 3-year, 22.05 million dollar deal last off-season, could have a better year in year two with the Dolphins, after falling down the depth chart and playing just 237 snaps last season. 

Berrios averaged just 0.81 yards per route run last season, but that was on a horrendous Jets passing game and he had averaged 1.84 yards per route run as a slot specialist across his three prior seasons, so he has some bounce back potential, only in his age 28 season. Wilson does as well, as he is also in his age 28 season and averaged 1.56 yards per route run in four seasons with the Cowboys, prior to joining the Dolphins and averaging just 0.99 yards per route run last season. He was mostly a rotational player and spot starter in Dallas, so he’s not a proven starter, but the Dolphins don’t really need much more than that from him. 

Anderson also could have some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season and you have to go back to 2020 for his last good season, as his average has dropped from 1.66 yards per route run over his first five seasons in the league to 0.84 over the past two seasons. The Dolphins don’t have bad reserve options behind Waddle and Hill, but they’re an underwhelming bunch, so the Dolphins will obviously need Waddle and Hill to continue staying healthy and being the focal point of this offense.

At tight end, the Dolphins didn’t really replace Gesicki and figure to just de-emphasize the tight end position even more in this offense, after targeting the position just 72 times last season (12.3% of their pass attempts), even with Gesicki being a proven receiver who was coming off back-to-back seasons of 700+ receiving yards. Durham Smythe, who played 557 snaps last season as mostly a blocker (0.81 yards per route run, 15/129/1 slash line), will probably play a bigger role this season, but probably still won’t see much of an uptick in receiving production, with a career 1.04 yards per route run average in five seasons since being selected in the 4th round by the Dolphins in 2018. 

The Dolphins also signed veterans Eric Saubert and Tyler Kroft this off-season, but they are just blocking specialists (0.71 yards per route run and 0.95 yards per route run in their careers) and played 395 snaps and 238 snaps respectively last season, so neither figures to contribute much in the passing game either. This offense will continue to run through Waddle and Hill, who are the best wide receiver duo in the league and obviously elevate this group by a massive amount, but will need to both stay healthy for this offense to have a chance to be a top level unit.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another big way in which the Dolphins supporting cast was better in 2022 than 2021 was on the offensive line, which was previously a weakness for years. The single biggest difference was the addition of former Saints left tackle Terron Armstead on a 5-year, 75 million dollar deal in free agency. It was a risky contract to give Armstead, as he was on the wrong side of 30 and had an alarming injury history, missing at least one game in all nine seasons in New Orleans, with 48 games missed total. 

However, Armstead also finished above 70 on PFF in eight of those nine seasons, with five seasons over 80, and his high level play continued into his first season in Miami, as he finished with a 77.5 PFF grade. Armstead still missed another four games with injury and now heads into his age 32 season, so he figures to miss more time at some point this season and could easily decline in a noticeable way, but he still has a good chance to be an above average starter even if he’s not at his best and, as long as he plays close to the full season, he should be an asset to this offensive line again, even if it’s not to the extent he was last season.

The Dolphins also signed former Cowboys center Connor Williams to a 2-year, 14.035 million dollar deal last off-season and that paid off in a big way as he made 17 starts and received a 78.4 grade from PFF. It was a career best year for Williams, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2018 2nd round pick also received a 71.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2020 and a 76.1 grade in 14 starts in 2021. In those two seasons he primarily played left guard and his versatility just makes him even more valuable to this offensive line. Still going into his age 26 season, I would expect Williams to continue playing around the same level and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he matched or even slightly exceeded his career best performance from 2022.

Another free agent addition that ended up being important was right tackle Brandon Shell, even though he didn’t even come to the Dolphins until he was signed off the practice squad early in the season, when incumbent right tackle Austin Jackson got injured. Shell made his first start in week 6 and finished the season with a 64.9 grade in 12 starts. That’s unspectacular, but the Dolphins had gotten poor play at right tackle for years prior to last season and at first it looked like last season would be more of the same, with Jackson and his initial replacement Greg Little both struggling, finishing the season with PFF grades of 57.9 and 34.6 respectively. 

Shell wasn’t retained this off-season and Jackson looks like the favorite to get his job back, which is a concern, as Jackson has struggled throughout his career, receiving PFF grades of 52.5 and 49.9 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, in a total of 28 starts, but Jackson is a former first round pick who is only going into his age 24 season, so he could take a step forward and be more of a capable starter in year four and, if not, the Dolphins do have other options, signing veterans Isaiah Wynn and Cedric Ogbuehi in free agency this off-season. Wynn seems like their best option at the position. He had a just 54.6 PFF grade in seven starts with the Patriots in 2022, but he was a first round pick in 2018 and he was a lot better with grades of 69.9, 82.6, and 74.9 in 2019, 2020, and 2021. 

Injuries have always been a problem for Wynn, costing him 39 games in five seasons in the league, and they may have sapped his abilities a little bit, leading to him having a down year in his contract year last season, which limited him to 2.3 million on a 1-year deal in free agency from Miami, a steep decrease from the 10.413 million he made on the 5th year option of his first round rookie deal last season, but Wynn does have some bounce back potential if he can stay healthy, only in his age 27 season, and he could prove to be a worthwhile flier on a cheap one-year deal. 

Wynn also gives the Dolphins versatility with his ability to play guard, so, even if he’s just a reserve to start the season, he could prove to be valuable for the Dolphins one way or another.

Ogbuehi is also a former first round pick, but he’s mostly been a middling reserve in his career, with just 35 career starts since being selected in the first round in 2015, with just 10 of those coming in the past five seasons, and now he heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not as intriguing of an option as Wynn and might not even be a guarantee to make the final roster.

Another reason for this offensive line’s improvement last season was right guard Robert Hunt having the best year of his career, finishing with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. That didn’t come out of nowhere for Hunt either, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and received grades of 66.0 and 67.4 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, across a total of 28 starts. Still only in his age 27 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he repeated his career best 2022 season again in 2023.

Left guard was a weakness for a lot of last season, with second year player Liam Eichenberg making 10 starts and finishing with a horrendous 39.8 PFF grade, but he was replaced in the lineup by 2021 undrafted free agent Robert Jones when Eichenberg was hurt and Jones proved to be an upgrade, receiving a 62.0 grade in 7 starts. Jones is still pretty unproven as a former undrafted free agent who only played 79 snaps in his rookie season prior to his extended stint as a spot starter last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to keep the starting job, even if he’s an underwhelming option.

Eichenberg probably has a higher upside, as a 2nd round pick in 2021, but he struggled in 16 starts as a rookie as well and he has a long way to go to even be a middling starter. Right tackle and left guard are questionable positions and left tackle Terron Armstead is an aging injury risk, but Armstead, Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams give the Dolphins a trio of high level starters when they’re healthy and the Dolphins don’t have bad depth on the offensive line either.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Dolphins didn’t make any splash additions at the running back position last off-season, but they did get a good year out of free agent signing Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 891 yards and 3 touchdowns on 181 carries, giving him 4.92 YPC and a 55% carry success rate that was 9th best among eligible running backs. That’s nothing new for Mostert, who has a career 5.38 YPC average, mostly in the Shanahan style offense that the Dolphins run. What was new was him staying healthy for most of the season, playing in 16 of 17 games, after missing 36 of a possible 81 in the previous five seasons, with his career high carries in a season being 137 and just 465 total carries in eight seasons in the league. 

Mostert now heads into his age 31 season and could decline and/or get injured, but he’s not the only former 49ers running back the Dolphins added last season, trading for Jeff Wilson mid-season and giving him 84 carries in the final 8 games of the season, which he took for 4.67 YPC and 3 touchdowns, while finishing the season 20th in carry success rate out of 42 eligible running backs at 51%. Wilson’s addition was especially big for this offense because it coincided with the Dolphins trading away Chase Edmonds, who was a poor fit in this offense and averaged just 2.86 YPC on 42 carries in eight games. 

Wilson’s performance last season was also nothing new for him, as he has averaged 4.48 YPC on 474 carries in five seasons in the league, but he’s also an injury concern, as last season he set career highs with 16 games played and 176 carries in a season, with his previous highs being 12 games played and 126 carries. After Wilson joined the Dolphins, he and Mostert had a 84/80 carry split in the final eight games of the season, helping keeping each other fresh, and the Dolphins added further depth to this backfield when they added Texas A&M’s De’Von Achane in the third round of the draft. He might not start as a rookie, but figures to have at least a rotational role with Mostert and Wilson and, given the injury history of those two, Achane starting at some point next season is definitely a possibility. 

The Dolphins don’t throw to running backs that much, with their passing game heavily focused around Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Raheem Mostert did see 42 targets as the primary passing down back. He wasn’t very efficient with those targets though, taking them for a 31/202/2 slash line (4.81 yards per target) and averaging just 0.69 yards per route run, but he has a 1.25 yards per route run average in his career aside from last season and his poor yards per route run average last season was in part due to the Dolphins not using their running backs in the passing game much.

Wilson also didn’t do much in the passing game last season, taking 24 targets for just 12 catches for 94 yards (3.92 yards per target) and a touchdown in 8 games, while averaging 0.73 yards per route run, but that’s nothing new for him, as he’s averaged just 0.83 yards per route run in his career. Wilson figures to see a pretty minimal passing game role again in 2023, with Mostert as the primary passing down back again and Achane also having pass catching upside, after catching 60 passes across his final two seasons in college. The Dolphins also still have Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin on this roster and, at times, they have been lead backs for this team in the past, but they’re both very underwhelming options who are not guaranteed to make the final roster, after 2022 campaigns in which they saw just 13 and 14 touches respectively. 

Ahmed has been in the league for three seasons, but the former undrafted free agent has averaged just 3.77 yards per carry and 1.02 yards per route run, while seeing just 165 total touches in his career, while Gaskin is somewhat more experienced with 462 career touches and he has a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he also has just a 3.75 yards per carry average in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2019. They’re not roster locks in a backfield that is much deeper than it has been in recent years, even if it lacks a true lead back or a good passing down option.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As they have done with their supporting cast on offense, the Dolphins have been aggressive adding talent on defense in recent years. During last season, they traded away a first round pick to the Denver Broncos for Bradley Chubb, who had an expiring contract and received a 5-year, 110 million dollar extension from the Dolphins upon arriving in Miami, making him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary. 

In his first half season with the team, Chubb wasn’t really worth what the Dolphins gave up for him in terms of financial resources and draft capital, as his pass rush numbers were middling (2.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate) and his run defense was subpar. Chubb was the 5th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and has shown stretches of being a high level pass rusher, but he has missed 25 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, his total pass rush numbers are good, but not what you would expect from a high level edge defender (28.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 57 games), and his run defense has consistently been a problem, limiting him to a career high season-long grade from PFF of just 70.7 overall. 

However, even if the Dolphins probably did overpay, Chubb should be an asset for this team and I would expect his performance in his second season in Miami to be better than his underwhelming first half season with the team. Chubb didn’t get to play much with Emmanuel Ogbah, who was the Dolphins’ sacks leader in 2021 with nine, but who was limited to just 326 snaps in nine games by injury in 2022, overlapping with Chubb for just two games. Ogbah also struggled even when on the field in 2022, finishing the season with a 52.1 PFF grade, with just 1 sack, 6 hits, and a 6.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. 

That performance last season is a concern with Ogbah now heading into his age 30 season, but, even if his best days are behind him, Ogbah isn’t totally over the hill yet and could at least bounce back somewhat from last year’s down year, after totaling 23.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 43 games in his previous three seasons prior to last season, with a PFF grade over 65 in all three seasons, including a career best 77.0 as recently as 2021. Ogbah and Chubb should both give the Dolphins more than they did a year ago, even if they’re not at their best.

Even if Chubb and Ogbah give them more than a year ago, the Dolphins best edge defender should still be Jaelan Phillips, who played 838 snaps and finished with a 87.7 PFF grade a year ago. Phillips was the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and had 8.5 sacks as a rookie, but his peripheral pass rush stats were underwhelming, with 8 hits and a 9.7% pressure rate, while his run defense was horrendous, leading to Phillips finishing below average with an overall 53.7 grade from PFF. 

In 2022, Phillips’ sack total was actually slightly less (7), but his peripheral pass rush stats were a lot better, adding 19 sacks and a 14.6% pressure rate, while drastically improving against the run, leading to his overall high grade, finishing 6th among edge defenders in PFF grade. Phillips is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not play quite as well in 2023, but, even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain a well above average overall player and he has the upside to continue being one of the top players at his league for years to come, even if he’s not quite as good as he was a year ago.

The Dolphins also have Andrew Van Ginkel, who played 333 snaps a year ago, and free agent acquisition Malik Reed as reserve options. Both are primarily base package players who are better against the run than they are as pass rushers. Van Ginkel is a good all-around reserve though, with a career 11.1% pressure rate and three straight seasons above 70 on PFF, doing so despite playing bigger snap counts (479 snaps and 801 snaps) in the previous two seasons prior to 2022. Reed, meanwhile, has exceeded 65 in run defense in three of four seasons in the league, on an average of 597 total snaps per season, but he has just a 7.2% career pressure rate. Van Ginkel and Reed provide even more depth at a very deep position group, led by a trio of players who could all be above average edge rushers this season.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins don’t have the same kind of depth at the interior defender position as they do on the edge, but they can use their depth on the edge to offset their lack of depth on the interior somewhat, lining up an edge defender on the interior in sub packages as a pass rush specialist somewhat regularly, and the Dolphins at least have a high level every down starting duo at the interior defender position, with Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler coming off seasons in which they finished with PFF grades of 85.1 and 74.7 respectively and saw snap counts of 952 snaps and 847 snaps respectively.

Both players have performed at that level before. Wilkins was a first round pick in 2019 who broke out with a 83.8 PFF grade on 734 snaps in 2021, after PFF grades of 64.4 and 68.9 on snap counts of 730 and 637 in his first two seasons in the league, while Sieler was only a 7th round choice in 2018, but received 76.2, 69.3, and 84.9 grades from PFF on snap counts of 118, 532, and 518 in the three seasons prior to last season in the 2019-2021 seasons respectively. With both going into their age 28 seasons, I would expect more of the same. Both are at their best against the run, but they also added 7 sacks, 13 hits, and a 5.5% pressure rate between the two of them last season, so they were pretty well-rounded players.

Raekwon Davis was their top interior defender aside from Wilkins and Sieler in 2022 and he struggled mightily with a 43.4 PFF grade on 583 snaps. Davis was a second round pick in 2020, but also struggled mightily with a 36.5 PFF grade on 424 snaps in an injury plagued 2021 season as well, prior to struggling last season. He was a solid run defender as a rookie, but his run defense has dropped off significantly in the past two seasons and he’s never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.3% pressure rate for his career. Davis is still young, in his age 26 season, and could still have bounce back potential, but his best case scenario most likely is being just a decent base package run defender and he could easily continue struggling.

Davis will have to be their primary reserve though, because the Dolphins simply lack another good option at the position. Aside from Wilkins, Sieler, and Davis, the Dolphins also have 2021 6th round pick Jaylen Twyman, who has never played a defensive snap, 2021 undrafted free agent Josiah Bronson, who has played 168 mediocre snaps in his career, as well as a trio of undrafted rookies, none of whom are locks to make this final roster. This is a very thin group behind Wilkins and Sieler, but Wilkins and Sieler are at least an above average every down starting duo and the Dolphins could somewhat mask their lack of depth on the interior with their depth on the edge.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins didn’t add as much to this defense this off-season as they have in previous recent off-seasons, but they did make a couple key moves, one of which being the addition of linebacker David Long from the Titans on a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal. Long has received grades of 67.4 and 76.2 from PFF over the past two seasons as an every down player, averaging 62.5 snaps played per game, and he is still only going into his age 27 season, but durability is a concern, as he’s missed 12 games total over the past two seasons and has missed at least one game in all four seasons in the league, since being selected in the 6th round by the Titans in 2019. 

When he’s on the field, Long should be an upgrade on incumbent Elandon Roberts, who received a 57.1 PFF grade last season, and he should play more of an every down role too, with Roberts playing just 39.8 snaps per game in 17 games last season, but Long is much more of an injury risk and is likely to miss at least some time with injury again. Duke Riley played 364 snaps as the top reserve a year ago and, while he probably won’t have much of a role as long as Long is healthy, he could easily find himself having to make start in Long’s absence, assuming Riley can beat out 2022 3rd round pick Channing Tindall for the top reserve role, not a guarantee even though Tindall played just 10 snaps as a rookie, as Tindall still does have a significant upside long-term. Riley, meanwhile, finished last season with a 59.1 PFF grade and has been below 60 in four of six seasons in the league, so there’s room for improvement on him, even as a reserve.

Jerome Baker, meanwhile, will remain the other every down linebacker next to David Long and he should be a more reliable option in terms of durability, playing 81 of a possible 82 games in five seasons in the league, while averaging 60.4 snaps per game over the past four seasons. The problem with Baker is he has been pretty inconsistent in his career. He finished last season with a 78.0 PFF grade on 1,010 snaps and he has another season with a PFF grade of 70+ on his resume, but it was only a 70.7 PFF grade and it came back in his rookie season in 2018, while his other three season-long grades were 46.7, 55.2, and 60.9. 

Baker is still young and in his prime, only in his age 27 season, but it’s hard to imagine him being consistent enough to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023 and there’s a good chance he declines significantly from a year ago. Fortunately, the addition of David Long should offset Baker’s likely decline, at least somewhat, and Baker and Long are still a solid starting duo, with decent depth behind them, so this is a pretty solid position group, even if Baker doesn’t end up being as good as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The biggest addition the Dolphins made this off-season was trading a third round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long to the Rams for Jalen Ramsey, who they signed to a new 3-year, 55 million dollar deal upon arrival. The 5th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Ramsey has been one of the top cornerbacks in the league since being drafted, starting 107 of 108 games played in seven seasons in the league (114 total possible games) and surpassing 70 on PFF in all six seasons, with three seasons over 80, including grades of 84.5 and 86.4 over the past two seasons. 

The Rams were in cap hell and lacking draft capital, so they decided to move Ramsey, but he is still only in his age 29 season and could remain a top level cornerback for at least another season or two before he starts declining. His addition should be a big boost for a secondary that had just one cornerback play more than 300 snaps and finish above 60 on PFF in 2022, with no cornerbacks above 70. The Dolphins should also get a better year out of their other starting outside cornerback Xavien Howard, who had finished above 70 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons prior to falling to 58.4 in 2022. 

Howard now heads into his age 30 season, which is a concern, but his struggles last season were mostly due to an injury that he played through and, even if his best days are behind him, he still has a lot of bounce back potential as, even at less than his best, he could easily be an above average cornerback. I would expect more from Howard in 2023, assuming he’s healthier, which is not a guarantee, as he’s missed 27 games in seven seasons in the league. Even with Howard’s durability concerns though, with Ramsey coming in, the Dolphins have a good chance to have a pair of above average outside cornerbacks, at a position that was kind of a weakness a year ago.

The Dolphins best cornerback a year ago in terms of PFF grade was actually undrafted rookie Kader Kohou, who played 895 snaps and posted a 69.8 grade. That could prove to be a fluke and Kohou might not be as good again, as he hasn’t shown enough yet to ignore the fact that the whole league, including the Dolphins, let him go undrafted a year ago, but he’s at least earned the chance to keep the #3 cornerback job and could remain a solid player in that role.

The Dolphins also have good alternatives in case Kohou slips up in his second season in the league, using a 2nd round pick on South Carolina’s Cam Smith and also retaining veteran free agent Nik Needham, who was limited to 294 snaps in six games by injury last season, but who has generally been a middling player on an average of 566 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, with 27 starts in 51 career games played. The Dolphins are pretty deep at the cornerback position and their top-3 have a high upside, even if there’s risk of downside if Howard gets hurt or continues to decline or if Kohou proves his rookie year to be sort of a fluke.

The Dolphins didn’t make any big additions at the safety position, but they will get starting safety Brandon Jones back from an injury that limited him to 347 snaps in seven games last season. Jones only had a 61.1 PFF grade overall and was much better as a run defender (73.3) and blitzer (65.2) than he was in coverage (52.4), which is par for the course from the 2020 3rd round pick, who received grades of 60.8 and 53.4 from PFF on snap counts of 385 and 644 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, while finishing below 60 on pass coverage grade in all three seasons in the league. However, he was still missed when he was hurt, as backup Eric Rowe had a 57.3 grade on 567 snaps and didn’t excel in any aspects of the game.

This season, Jones should get his starting job back, but the Dolphins did add better insurance behind him, replacing Rowe with free agent DeShon Elliott. Elliott can be a capable starter if the Dolphins need him to, receiving grades of 66.6, 65.6, and 66.5 over the past three seasons as a starter, but he comes with his own durability concerns, missing 14 of a possible 50 games over those three seasons. Perhaps moving him to a reserve role will make it easier for him to stay healthy and he is good insurance to have if needed, given his history of being a capable starter.

Jevon Holland remains as the other starting safety opposite Jones. He had a solid 65.5 grade in 17 starts last season, but that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick burst onto the scene with a 84.7 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie. Still only going into his age 23 season, Holland has plenty of bounce back potential in his third season in the league and he could easily still develop into one of the consistently best safeties in the league for years to come. I would expect a better year from him in 2023. WIth Holland and Howard likely to bounce back and Ramsey being added, this secondary is much improved from a year ago.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

On defense, the Dolphins finished last season 15th in DVOA and they should be better this year, probably noticeably, with likely bounce back years coming from Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland, the addition of Jalen Ramsey, and Emmanuel Ogbah and Bradley Chubb likely to give them more than a year ago. The Dolphins also have a strong supporting cast on offense and have the potential to get high level play from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which would make this team among the favorites in the NFL. 

Unfortunately, Tagovailoa comes with a history of injury and inconsistency, so the Dolphins are not necessarily likely to get the best case scenario out of Tagovailoa, and not getting a high level season out of Tagovailoa would hurt their chances of being high level contenders. As long as Tagovailoa doesn’t miss the whole season or drop off completely, this should at least be a playoff team, even in the loaded AFC, with the upside for more and they are among the most intriguing sleepers in the league, but they come with some downside as well. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC East