Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

A week ago on the early line, the Ravens were favored by four points, but this line has since shifted all the way to Pittsburgh -2. The reason for that line movement is understandable, as the Ravens will be without franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson due to injury and a 6-point line movement is about right for him being out, but I think the original line at -4 would have been too low if Jackson started, so we’re still getting line value with the Ravens, even without Jackson.

While the Ravens have four losses, they have blown two-score leads in all of them and they lead the NFL in time spent leading. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +49 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about 7 points above average. They’re obviously not as good without Jackson, but they are getting healthier in other parts of their roster and they are still a significantly better team than the Steelers, despite this line suggesting they’re about even, favoring the Steelers at home by just a couple points.

Top receiving threat Mark Andrews, top running back Gus Edwards, stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley, talented defensive lineman Calais Campbell, starting edge defenders Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser, talented safeties Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, and starting cornerback Marcus Peters have all missed time for the Ravens with injury thus far this season, but are expected to play this week and I think the Ravens’ improved health in other parts of their roster has gone overlooked with Jackson out. I would need this line to be a full field goal for the Ravens to be worth betting against the spread, but they’re a good value on the money line at +110, as they should be the ones slightly favored in this game, with backup Tyler Huntley being one of the better backups in the league and having a relatively healthy supporting cast around him. 

Baltimore Ravens 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Low