Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)
The Eagles lead the league with a +14 turnover margin, which is not a predictive stat week-to-week. That would normally make them overrated, but they also rank 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive, and they have the best team in my roster rankings, so the turnover margin is not the only reason they are winning games. The Bears, meanwhile, rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, while they have a better offense now than they had earlier this season with Justin Fields improving as the season goes on, they’re also without their two best wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool and their defense has been horrendous since trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn and losing Eddie Jackson to injury.
Overall, this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league, so, even with this line at 8.5, the Eagles are still undervalued this week. They have seven double digit wins this season, a trend that dates back to last season when they also had seven, even though they weren’t as talented as they are this season. The Eagles are in kind of a bad spot with a much tougher game against the Cowboys on deck, but I think this line already prices that in somewhat and, even still, the Eagles are significantly undervalued. Without another good option this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Chicago Bears 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -8.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week