Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week from an against the spread perspective. My calculated line is Cincinnati -3, which is right where this line is, and, given that games are decided by three significantly more often than any other number, the most likely outcome of this game is a Cincinnati win by a field goal, which would result in a push. I am taking New England for pick ‘em purposes, but only because the public is heavily on the Bengals and, as a result, the sportsbooks would stand to make a lot of money if the Patriots are able to keep this within three. 

For all the problems the Patriots have on offense (29th in schedule adjusted efficiency), their defense is still one of the best in the league (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency) and, overall, they’re not worse than an average team, so they should be able to keep this game somewhat competitive at home, even if the Bengals are likely to emerge victorious. A push is still probably more likely than anything though and there’s not nearly enough here for this game to be worth betting either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: None