Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week from an against the spread perspective. My calculated line is Cincinnati -3, which is right where this line is, and, given that games are decided by three significantly more often than any other number, the most likely outcome of this game is a Cincinnati win by a field goal, which would result in a push. I am taking New England for pick ‘em purposes, but only because the public is heavily on the Bengals and, as a result, the sportsbooks would stand to make a lot of money if the Patriots are able to keep this within three. 

For all the problems the Patriots have on offense (29th in schedule adjusted efficiency), their defense is still one of the best in the league (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency) and, overall, they’re not worse than an average team, so they should be able to keep this game somewhat competitive at home, even if the Bengals are likely to emerge victorious. A push is still probably more likely than anything though and there’s not nearly enough here for this game to be worth betting either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

Historically, this would be a spot where a Tom Brady led team would be an automatic bet, as he 46-13 ATS all-time against a team with a better record than this, 60-32 ATS all-time as an underdog or favorite of less than three, and 36-14 ATS after a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. However, Tom Brady has not played at the same level in his age 45 season this year and the Buccaneers don’t have a great roster around them, so we’re not getting any line value with them as 3.5-point home underdogs against the surging Bengals, who have eight wins by four points or more. 

If I were to bet on the Buccaneers, it would almost be a pure bet on a spot and I’m not sure if that justifies a bet anymore at this point in Brady’s career. I might still bet on the Buccaneers if they get both Antoine Winfield and Tristan Wirfs back from injury, as they are a different team when those two key players are in the lineup, but they are both considered legitimately questionable, so this is a low confidence pick for now. Depending on the final injury report and where this line ends up, I may update this pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

This game is a tough call, with both teams being better than their records. The Bengals have four losses, but you can still argue they are one of the best teams in the league, with two of those losses coming in the first two weeks of the season and three of their losses coming by three points or fewer, as opposed to four wins by 12 points or more, giving them a point differential of +57 which ranks 6th in the NFL. They also rank 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4.5 points above average, and they are getting healthy, with key players in running back Joe Mixon, defensive tackle DJ Reader, and wide receiver JaMarr Chase all expected to play this week after time earlier this season, leading to them being 6.5 points above average in my roster rankings.

The Browns, meanwhile, are the only team to beat the Bengals by more than three points this season, doing so by 19 points in Cleveland back in week 8, and, like the Bengals, most of their losses have been very close, with four of seven coming by three points or fewer. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Browns rank 10th, about 1.5 points above average, and they got franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson back from suspension last week, which should prove to be a significant upgrade in the long-term. 

I am going with the Bengals in this game for pick ‘em purposes, as 5.5-point home favorites, but only because Watson might still not be at his best in just his second game out, while the Browns defense continues to lose key players due to injury, with Sione Takitaki now out, meaning they’re without their top-3 linebackers from what was once a very talented group. Even with that taken into account though, this is one of the toughest games of the week from an against the spread perspective and is one of my lowest confidence picks. In fact, while I would take the Bengals at 5.5, I might switch to the Browns if the line moved to 6, that’s how close this decision is for me.

Cincinnati Bengals 33 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

A week ago on the early line, the Chiefs were favored by a field goal in Cincinnati, but this line has since fallen down to two, a significant shift, given that one in six games are decided by three points exactly. That line movement seems like an overreaction to a single week of play and a strange one at that, with both the Bengals and Chiefs both barely covering the spread last week, hardly results that would seem to result in a line movement. 

I don’t think the line should have moved, especially since a Kansas City win by a field goal seems like the single most likely outcome of this game, with the Chiefs being the better team and a field goal deciding about 1 out of every 6 games. The Bengals are better than their record, with three of their four losses coming by three points or fewer and a +54 point differential that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still significantly behind the Chiefs in point differential (+83) and in schedule adjusted efficiency, with the 2nd ranked Chiefs holding a 4-point edge over the 6th ranked Bengals. 

The Bengals are getting healthier, with stud interior defender DJ Reader returning a few weeks ago and top wide receiver JaMarr Chase expected back this week, but the Chiefs are about as healthy as a team can be at this point in the season and also hold a 6-point edge in my roster rankings over the Bengals. There’s not enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, but we’re getting at least some line value with them and they seem like the better pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Cincinnati Bengals 31

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)

The Titans have won seven of their last eight games to go to 7-3 on the season, but their wins haven’t been that impressive, as their only win against a team that isn’t sub .500 came against the 6-5 Commanders and none of those wins have come by more than 10 points. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a pick six to make the margin of victory bigger against the Colts, while last week’s 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have one fewer win than the Titans, but four of them have come by more than 10 points and blowout wins are much more predictive of future winning than close wins. On the flip side, three of the Bengals’ four losses have come by three points or fewer, giving them a point differential of +50, significantly better than the Titans at +8. They’re also getting healthier, getting back stud interior defender DJ Reader last week and likely to get back top wide receiver JaMarr Chase this week.

The Bengals are favored on the road here, but they’re only favored by 2.5 points, which is pretty insignificant, with less than 1 in 10 games decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 points, so we’re getting significant line value with them. This isn’t a big bet, but in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, the Bengals are worth at least a small bet this week.

Update: JaMarr Chase is surprisingly not playing. I already locked this bet in, so I can’t change it, but the line has dropped to 1 and I would take the Bengals even without Chase at that number.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Tennessee Titans 26

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are just 3-6, but they’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, facing a .500 or better team in seven of their nine games. When strength of schedule is factored in, the Steelers actually rank 15th in overall efficiency, right about below average, and they’ve done that without their top defensive player and reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt for most of the season. In fact, this will be the Steelers’ first game with both Watt and arguably their second best defensive player Minkah Fitzpatrick both in the lineup at the same time since week 1.

The Bengals are better than their 5-4 record as well, with an average margin of victory of 14.0 points per game, leading to them ranking 5th in the league with +43 point differential and ranking 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about four points above average. They’re going in the wrong direction injury wise though, missing top wide receiver JaMarr Chase and top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, leading to the Bengals only having a three point edge over the healthier Steelers in my roster rankings. 

With the Steelers being at home, it’s hard to justify them being 4-point underdogs and my calculated line suggests they should be underdogs of just 1 point. With that in mind, the Steelers are worth betting this week, though this will be a smaller play because the Bengals are in a great spot off of a bye, as road favorites of 3.5 or more cover at a 62.6% rate after a bye. The Bengals don’t deserve to be favored by that many points though, so I’m still pretty confident in the Steelers keeping this close and potentially pulling the home upset.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)

The Bengals have been better than their 4-4 record this season, with a +22 point differential and an 8th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency, three points above average. However, they are one of the most injury affected teams in the league right now, missing top cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton, top wide receiver JaMarr Chase, and top interior defender DJ Reader, all of whom are among their most important players. 

Fortunately, the Bengals are in a good spot heading into their bye week, as big home favorites over the lowly Panthers. Home favorites of 6 points or more cover the spread at a 63.5% rate all-time before a bye and the Bengals are favored in this game by 7 points. Missing the key players they are missing, I have the Bengals a half point below average in my roster rankings, but the Panthers rank 6 points below average in schedule adjusted efficiency and 5 points below average in my roster rankings, so this line is actually a little short, with my calculated line at 8.5. It’s not great line value, but between that and the great spot the Bengals are in, they are bettable this week at -7.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Carolina Panthers 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)

The Browns are just 2-5, but they aren’t getting blown out, with all but one of their losses coming by a field goal or less. Their point differential is -18, which is better than their record would suggest, and they are even better in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 16th, just slightly above average. Despite that, they are underdogs of a full field goal at home. However, they might deserve to be, for a couple reasons. For one, the Browns are missing several key players due to injury, most notably guard Wyatt Teller, arguably their most important offensive player, as well as top cornerback Denzel Ward and talented starting tight end David Njoku, while their top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is questionable after not practicing all week. 

On top of that, the Browns are facing the Bengals, who seem like one of the better teams in the league, despite their record. Like most of the Browns’ losses, all of the Bengals’ losses were close games that they easily could have won, all decided by three points or fewer, as opposed to three of their four wins coming by double digits. Their +41 point differential is 4th best in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 4th, about 5 points above average and above the Browns.

The Bengals have some injury concerns as well, most notably the absence of stud wide receiver JaMarr Chase, but they have enough depth at that position to compensate and they are otherwise relatively healthy, leading to them having a four point edge over the Browns in my roster rankings. That still suggests that we’re getting some line value with the Browns, but it’s not enough for the Browns to be worth betting. That could change if Owusu-Koramoah ends up playing and the line stays at a full field goal, but that seems unlikely and, even in that case, I might keep this as a low confidence pick. I will update this pick if I end up betting on the Browns, who should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Cleveland Browns 23

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

The Falcons have been one of the most surprising teams in the league this season. Entering the season clearly in the beginning phases of a rebuild, with one of the least talented rosters in the league on paper, the Falcons have started 3-3 and their performance has been no fluke. Their defense has been mediocre, ranking 24th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but their offense has statistically been one of the best in the league, ranking 5th in both first down rate and schedule adjusted efficiency, and offensive performance tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance.

This week, the Falcons visit a Bengals team that is well above average, despite a 3-3 record, with all three of their losses coming by three points or fewer and a +23 point differential that is 7th best in the NFL, but the Falcons are still about even with the Bengals in overall schedule adjusted efficiency. My roster rankings don’t show the Falcons as favorably, as they’ve significantly overachieved compared to their talent level and are missing talented cornerback Casey Hayward this week, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league through the first few weeks of the season, but the Bengals still only have a 3-point edge in my roster rankings.

The Bengals are at home in this game, but these teams are closer than this 6.5-point line suggests, with my calculated line falling at Cincinnati -4.5. That’s not enough line value for the Falcons to be worth betting, but I would reconsider if this line jumped up to a full touchdown and the Falcons should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The Falcons haven’t lost by more than 6 points all season and, while it wouldn’t surprise me if they suffered their biggest margin of defeat thus far in Cincinnati against a good Bengals team this week, I would expect this to be a relatively close game.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Atlanta Falcons 22

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)

The Saints are just 2-3, but the turnover margin has been a big problem for them, as they have the worst in the league at -8, which, fortunately for them, is not predictive. In terms of schedule adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are much more predictive, the Saints rank 19th and 7th respectively, so they should be better going forward than their 2-3 record suggests. The Bengals are also better than their record, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 8 points, but they are favored by 2.5 points on the road in this game, even though they are only a half point better than the Saints in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Saints do have some significant injuries, with top wide receiver Michael Thomas and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore both out, which is enough for me to not bet the Saints against the spread unless we’re getting a full field goal, but the Bengals still only rank one point higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting at least some line value with the Saints, who should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The money line is also a good value at +130.

Update: +3s are showing up today, so I am going to lock in that bet.

New Orleans Saints 23 Cincinnati Bengals 21 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Medium