Football Fan Spot

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

The Lions are a good bet to win significantly more games than they did a year ago. Their schedule is much easier than a year ago. They were better than their record last season, ranking 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency and 5th in wins by 14 points or more, but only going 2-5 in one-score games. They also have a good chance to be healthier this season, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season. However, while their injury situation might improve as the season goes on, they are not off to a good start in that department, with both of their talented safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, as well as free agent addition center Cade Mays, all out for at least the first four weeks of the season. 

Their schedule also isn’t that easy to start the season, as they host a competent Saints team. The Saints are without first round pick wide receiver Jordyn Tyson and running back Alvin Kamara due to injury, but Kamara is pretty washed up anyway and Tyson’s absence is more than offset by the fact that center Erik McCoy, defensive end Chase Young, and wide receiver Chris Olave are all healthy. Those three are all among the Saints’ three best players when healthy, but all three have concerning injury histories.

The Lions tendency to blow teams out last season worries me when betting on the Saints, but the less than half of the Lions’ games (7 of 17) resulted in a win by more than a touchdown (4 of 8 at home) and, at far less than 100% to start the season, this is too many points to be giving to a competent opponent. This is also a bad spot for the Lions, who have to play the Bills in a much bigger game on Thursday Night Football just four days after this game. Favorites cover at just a 43.9% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. My calculated line is Detroit -3.5, giving us an expected value of +17.15% with New Orleans +7, which is more than enough for them to be worth betting.

Detroit Lions 31 New Orleans Saints 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +7

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Broncos finished 14-3 last season, while the Chiefs finished 6-11, but these two teams were much closer than their records suggest, as the Broncos went 11-2 in games decided by 8 points or fewer, best in the league, while the Chiefs went 1-9, worst in the league. If both teams had about a .500 record in one-game scores (7-6 for the Broncos, 5-5 for the Chiefs), both teams would have finished 10-7. A team’s record in one-score games tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. Case in point, the Chiefs were 11-0 in one-score games in 2024, while the Broncos were 1-6. These two teams were also very close in schedule adjusted efficiency, with the Broncos ranking 9th at +3.34 and the Chiefs ranking 10th at +2.61.

The Broncos also had fewer major injuries than the Chiefs, as they had the 5th fewest injuries in the league in terms of total value lost to injury, while the Chiefs were a middle of the pack team in terms of total value lost to injury. Among more minor injuries, the Chiefs were without their top wide receiver Rashee Rice for nine games, their starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes for three games, their starting left tackle Justin Simmons for nine games, and talented starting right guard Trey Smith for five games last season. 

When the Broncos played in Kansas City last season, the Chiefs were without the four aforementioned players as well as replacement quarterback Gardner Minshew, linebacker Leo Chenal, top-2 cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, right tackle Jawaan Taylor, replacement left tackle Jaylon Moore, and starting wide receiver Tyquan Thornton, while the Broncos were only missing center Luke Wattenberg. Despite that, the Broncos only won that game by 7 points. 

This time around, the Chiefs are much healthier. The Chiefs did lose some players on defense this off-season, including Chenal, McDuffie, Watson, and safety Bryan Cook, but they generally did a good job of replacing those players, while their offense adds talented running back Kenneth Walker. The Broncos added top receiver Jaylen Waddle in free agency, but they lost a couple of key players on defense in Dre Greenlaw and John Franklin-Myers and they have one of the oldest rosters in the league, finishing last season 6th in snap-weighted age and entering this season with the 5th oldest roster in the league, including eight starters in their age 30 season or older. The Chiefs, on the other hand, finished last season with the 8th youngest team in snap-weighted age and enter the league with the 2nd youngest in the league this season.

The Chiefs are without left tackle Josh Simmons in this game due to injury, but the Broncos are without talented edge defender Jonathan Cooper due to suspension. The Chiefs are also missing safety Chamarri Conner, but his replacement Jaden Hicks is arguably better, so that could be addition by subtraction. With their rosters in the state they are currently in, even taking into account that this is Mahomes’ first game back from a torn ACL, the Chiefs are about 1 point better than the Broncos in my roster rankings. 

On top of that, the Broncos are in a bad spot because head coach Sean Payton’s teams tend to struggle early in the season. In Payton’s career, he is 11-24-1 ATS and 15-21 straight up in weeks 1 and 2, underperforming the spread by 3 points per game, including 5-19 ATS and 7-17 straight up since 2013 and 1-5 ATS and straight up with the Broncos. Between the line value and that trend, the Chiefs are worth a bet at -2.5, as they should be able to win this game by at least a field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

Both of these teams were really bad last season, finishing 31st and 32nd respectively in schedule adjusted efficiency, but the Titans were still a significantly better team than the Jets, finsihing about a point and a half better in schedule adjusted efficiency. The Jets made some off-season additions that have made them better since then, but so have the Titans and, overall, the Titans are about a point better than the Jets in my roster rankings. 

Despite that, the Titans are favored by only 1.5 points at home in this game, suggesting these two teams are at worst even and, if anything, that the Jets are the slightly better team. My calculated line has the Titans favored by a full field goal, using a standard 2-point adjustment for homefield advantage, so we are getting good line value with the Titans at -1.5. They are worth a small bet at that number.

Tennessee Titans 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Tennesee -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

The Colts are an underrated team coming into the season. Last season, they finished just 8-9, but they ranked 11th in point differential, 13th in first down rate differential, 8th in yards per play differential, and 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That was despite the fact that three of their best defensive players Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward, and DeForest Buckner played just 4 games, 7 games, and 10 games respectively for this team and did not once play in the same game, while quarterback Daniel Jones also missed 4 games. 

All four of those players are expected to play in this game. Some of them might not be at their best at the start of the season coming off of major injuries, as could also be the case with wide receiver Alec Pierce, who missed much of the off-season after ankle surgery. However, this team arguably has more of their best players in the lineup at once than they did at any point last season, which they were better than their final record suggested. 

The Ravens are also healthier now than they were for most of last season, with quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off of an injury plagued season and interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike possibly returning after missing all but two games last season, but I think the public and sports books are properly taking that into account, while the Colts are being overlooked. We are getting more than a field goal at home with the Colts, which is more significant than some might realize, with 1 in 4 games decided by a field goal or less. They are a strong bet at that number.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

A lot has been made of the Bengals having a potentially improved defense this season after the acquisition of Dexter Lawrence. The Bengals should be better on that side of the ball than they have been in recent years, but considering they have ranked 30th, 30th, and 31st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency over the past three seasons, it would be very possible to be better than they have been and still be a well below average defensive unit, given the issues they still have all over this defense. 

The Bengals are also historically slow starters in the Zac Taylor era, especially as home favorites. While the Bengals are 54-32 ATS in week 6 or later since Taylor’s first season in 2019 and 21-11 ATS as underdogs when Joe Burrow plays, the Bengals are just 3-7 ATS as home favorites in week 5 or earlier since 2019, with straight up losses in five of those ten games. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have a good chance to get out to a hot start like they did last year, when they started 5-1, before having terrible injury luck, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. 

In total, the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, starting running back Bucky Irving, their top-3 wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka, and their top-3 offensive linemen Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke, and Cody Mauch all either missed significant time last season and/or were at much less than 100% for much of the season. This season, Evans is gone and Egbuka is less than 100% with a foot injury, but they are much healthier than they were last season when they went 3-8 after their hot start. With one in four NFL games decided by three points or fewer, the Buccaneers have a good chance to at least keep this one close enough to cover this 3.5 point spread in Cincinnati, if not win outright. My calculated line is Cincinnati -1.5, giving us an expected value of +16.15% with the Buccaneers.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

The Packers started last season 9-3-1 and were leading the eventual AFC #1 seed Broncos week 15 in Denver, but disaster struck when All-Pro caliber edge defender Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL midway through that game. The Packers would go on to lose to the Broncos and did not win a game the rest of the season, finishing 9-7-1 and collapsing after building a 21-3 halftime lead in the first round against division rival Chicago. 

Parsons was the most important player the Packers lost to an injury last season, but he wasn’t the only key player that suffered a season ending injury, as tight end Tucker Kraft, their leading receiver at the time of his injury, had his season ended in week 9 by a torn ACL, top interior defender Devonte Wyatt had his season ended in week 13 by a fractured ankle, and top offensive lineman Zach Bako-Bewele had his season ended in week 15 by a partially torn patellar tendon.

There was some hope the Packers could return to form in 2026 if they could get healthy again and there is still time for the Packers to do that, but it won’t be early in the season, with Parsons set to miss at least the first four games of the season. Additionally, Bako-Bewele, Kraft and Wyatt could be at less than 100% to start the season after missing much of the off-season program, while running back Josh Jacobs is out in indefinitely after an off-season arrest. On top of that, the Packers had several key free agent losses and, because of the Micah Parsons trade, they didn’t have a first round pick to use to replace those departed players.

The Vikings, meanwhile, come into the season very healthy, most importantly quarterback Kyler Murray. The biggest concern on the Vikings’ offense is Murray’s injury history, but as long as he stays healthy, they figure to be a good bet this season, after going 9-8 last season despite one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. Their defense isn’t going to be as good as last season due to the loss of four starters on that side of the ball, but the addition of Murray should at least offset that, given how bad their quarterback situation was last season. The Vikings are the better team right now and are at home, but are only being favored by a point and a half. I think the Vikings should be favored by at least a field goal, giving us decent value with them (+16.82% expected value).

Minnesota Vikings 23 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -1.5

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)

The Chargers are a popular team to take a step forward this season, with expected improvements on the offensive line and in offensive play calling with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, which were both big weaknesses last season. Their offense should be a lot better this season, but maybe not right away, with their talented offensive tackle duo of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt possibly not being 100% right away after missing significant time last season, particularly Slater, who missed all of last season and most of this off-season. On top of that, their defense probably won’t be as good as this season after losing talented defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to the Ravens, where he became their new head coach. 

Given that they could get out to a bit of a disappointing start compared to expectations, the Chargers are favored by too many points in week 1, giving 10.5 to the Cardinals. The Cardinals were one of the worst teams in the league last season and should be again this season, but they only lost by double digits in 6 of 17 games, while the Chargers only won by double digits in 5 of 17 games. The Chargers are also typically a poor bet at home, where they have covered the spread just 45.6% of the time since moving before the 2017 season, as opposed to a 56.0% cover rate on the road. This game should be a lot closer than people are expecting. My calculated line is Chargers -7.5, giving us 22.85% expected value with the Cardinals at +10.5.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Arizona Cardinals 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona +10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week