Detroit Lions (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)
Both of these teams won close games last week, but the Bills were much more impressive in doing so, winning on the road in Houston, while the Lions barely won at home against the Saints. The Lions also had to go to overtime in their victory, which puts them in a very tough spot for this game against the Bills on a short week. It might seem like common sense that playing on a short week after an overtime game would put a team in a bad spot, but it is a tougher spot than you might think, as teams are just 5-26 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game the previous Sunday, underperforming the spread by an average of 8 points per game. This spread seems to take that trend into account somewhat, moving from Buffalo -3 on the early line last week to Buffalo -4.5 this week, but that is not a significant enough line movement to adjust for how exhausted the Lions figure to be this week.
On top of that, the Lions were already in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs on Thursday Night Football. Traveling on a short week tends to be a huge disadvantage unless you are facing a familiar divisional opponent and/or a significantly inferior team. Non-divisional road underdogs cover at just a 39.1% spread on Thursday Night Football when both teams are on short rest. With the Lions in a near impossible spot as non-divisional road underdogs on a short week after an overtime game, the Bills are an easy choice here and, without an obvious game this weekend that I love, the Bills are my Pick of the Week on Thursday Night Football.
Buffalo Bills 38 Detroit Lions 28
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Leave a comment