Bills

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-6)

When this line opened at Chargers -4.5, I was interested in the Bills. The Bills are obviously coming off of a horrendous home loss to the New Orleans Saints, losing 47-10, but teams tend to bounce back pretty well after blowout losses, going 54-30 ATS since 2002 after losing by 35+ points. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense as teams to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed following a blowout loss. I typically love betting against significant week-to-week line movements and blowout loss almost always trigger significant line movement.

This line shifted from 3 on the early line last week as a result of the Bills’ blowout loss, a pretty significant shift considering 20% of games are decided by 3-4 points. The Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles and have to play again in 4 days in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 61-95 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, as it’s understandably tough to be focused for an inferior opponent with another game right around the corner. The Bills seemed like possibly a smart pick.

However, then the Bills benched Tyrod Taylor mid-week for 5th round rookie Nathan Peterman. That shifted the line by another 1.5 points as the Chargers are now 6 point home favorites, but it should have shifted it a lot more. Taylor was far from the problem with this offense and has played pretty well over the past 3 seasons as the starter, despite underwhelming receiving options. He’s been Pro Football Focus’ 9th, 11th, and 10th ranked quarterback over the past 3 seasons and deserves to go somewhere he can start this off-season.

Peterman, meanwhile, is a completely unknown commodity, but likely fell to the 5th round in April for legitimate reason. The history of quarterbacks drafted in the 5th round or later who go on to have success in the NFL is very limited and Peterman seems to lack the requisite arm strength to play quarterback in the NFL. Benching Taylor should have triggered a line movement of at least 4 points. I have this line calculated at -9 in favor of the Chargers with Peterman at quarterback for the Bills.

That might seem high, but even with Taylor under center, the Bills ranked 31st in first down rate differential. They are 5-4, but they have a -12 point differential, despite leading the league with a +11 turnover margin. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis, so the Bills they won’t be able to rely on winning the turnover battle every week. After starting the season +14, they are -3 in the past two games, which have been a double digit loss to the Jets and a blowout loss to the Saints. They rank 29th in both first down rate and first down rate allowed. Their offense couldn’t move the ball despite solid quarterback play and their defense can’t get off the field if they don’t get a takeaway. Now with Peterman under center, this is one of the worst teams in the league. They rank 26th in my roster rankings.

The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 9th in my roster rankings and they rank 9th in first down rate differential as well, despite their 3-6 record. Four of their 6 losses have come by 3 points or less, including two games in which they missed makeable field goals. That’s pretty impressive considering their lack of homefield advantage. With an actual homefield advantage and better luck in close games, they could easily be 6-3 right now. With that in mind, I’m taking the Chargers here, but I can’t recommend betting any money on them because they aren’t a good home team and they’re in a terrible spot, against a team that just got blown out with another game in 4 days. They should be the right pick for pick ‘em purposes though, given the talent disparity between these two teams.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -6

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (6-2) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

The Bills started the season 5-2 on the strength of a league best +14 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and they ranked just 28th in first down rate differential. Last week, they lost 34-21 in New York to the Jets as 3.5 point road favorites, in a game in which they lost the turnover margin by -3. They also had a first down rate differential of -5.54% in that game and still rank 28th in first down rate differential on the season at -3.89%. If we assume turnover neutral football for the Bills in the second half of the season, which you almost always should when evaluating a team given how inconsistent turnover margins are, the Bills will have a lot harder time winning games in the second half of the season.

Despite Buffalo’s big loss, I was still able to lock this line in at -2.5 in favor of the visiting Saints earlier in the week, the same line as the early line last week. You can still get that line in a few places for a higher vig. I have these two teams about 6.5 points apart in my roster rankings, so this line should be at least -3, if not higher. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so the difference between -2.5 and -3/-3.5 is pretty big. The Saints are 6-2, have won 6 straight, rank 6th in first down rate differential, and have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL thanks to a much improved defense. Only about 8% of games are decided by 2 points or less, so the Saints basically need to just win here. They should be able to win this game by at least a field goal. This is a high confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Buffalo Bills 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -2.5

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-2) at New York Jets (3-5)

The Bills beat the Raiders 34-14 last week, triggering a movement in this game’s line from BUF -2.5 @ NYJ last week on the early line to -3.5 this week. However, that final score is deceiving, as the Raiders won both the first down and the yardage battle. The Bills were able to win by 20 because they won the turnover battle by 4 and brought one back for a touchdown, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The average turnover margin for a team that won the turnover battle by 4 in their previous game is +0.0, the same as the turnover margin for a team that previously lost the turnover battle by 4.

The Bills have been pretty reliant on the turnover margin so far this season, as they lead the league with a +14 turnover margin. They’re unlikely to continue winning the turnover battle at that same rate, which will have a noticeable effect on the scoreboard. They rank just 28th in first down rate differential at -3.74%, only one spot ahead of the 29th ranked Jets (-5.05%). Adding Kelvin Benjamin to this receiving corps via trade will help in future weeks, but he’s unlikely to be much help on Thursday Night Football after just being acquired from Carolina on Tuesday.

The Jets aren’t a very good team, but they’re not the worst and they’ve played pretty well at home this season (4-0 ATS), defeating the Jaguars and Dolphins and playing the Falcons and Patriots close. Given that, we’re getting some line value with the Jets as 3.5 point home favorites because the Bills are overrated right now as a result of their turnover margin. 3.5 points doesn’t seem like a lot, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less and this could easily be a close game. This is just a low confidence pick, but the Jets should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Low

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Expected to be an AFC contender, the Raiders got off to an underwhelming 2-4 start, but things are looking up for them following last week’s last second home victory over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. After getting knocked out with a back injury in a week 4 loss to the Broncos, missing a week 5 loss against the Ravens, and struggling in his return in a week 6 loss to the Chargers, Derek Carr played one of his best games last week against the Chiefs and should be close to 100% after an extended rest following the Thursday game. Despite their record, there’s a case to be made that the Raiders are still a top-10 team, given how few true contenders there seem to be this season and how talented this roster still is.

This line favors the hometown Bills by a field goal, suggesting these two teams are about even, which I don’t agree with. The Bills are 4-2, but they’ve been very reliant on the turnover margin, as they lead the league with a +10 turnover margin, but rank just 26th in first down rate differential at -3.00%. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they’ll need to do a better job of picking up first downs going forward if they want to continue having success in the win column. Their offense has major problems (29th in first down rate), so I don’t see that happening, and their defense is a little bit overrated because of how many takeaways they’ve gotten (12th in first down rate allowed). Their defense also enters this game banged up, missing cornerback EJ Gaines and safety Jordan Poyer, who have been a big part of their defensive success this season.

The Raiders are also banged up in the secondary, missing rookie slot cornerback Gareon Conley for the 6th time this season, in addition to cornerback David Amerson (2nd game) and safety Karl Joseph (1st game). However, their secondary isn’t as important to their success as the Bills’ secondary is to their success. They have easily the better offense, especially with Carr rounding back into form, and are about 2 points better than the Bills in my roster rankings. The Bills are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are just 59-92 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. I locked this line in at -3 earlier this week on my Thursday pick, but I would take 2.5 if I had to. I also like the Raiders’ chances of the straight up upset.

Oakland Raiders 24 Buffalo Bills 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: High

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

I was hoping that Jameis Winston would be ruled out this week with his shoulder injury so I could get more points with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay +6 with Ryan Fitzpatrick would have been a great value. Tampa Bay +3 would be a good value if Winston were 100%, but it’s unlikely he is, just one week after suffering a sprain to his throwing shoulder. Winston missed practice Wednesday and Thursday before returning for Friday and will give it a go. It’s a gutsy move, but it’s very tough to be confident in the Buccaneers given the uncertainty of his shoulder.

This line at -3 in favor of the hometown Bills suggests these two teams are about even, which would not be true if Winston was healthy. The Bills are 3-2 and the Buccaneers are just 2-3, but the Buccaneers would have beaten the Patriots if they could make field goals and they came back to make it close against the Cardinals even after Winston was knocked out of the game. They’re also as healthy as they’ve been all season on defense right now. Defensive tackle Chris Baker, cornerback Brent Grimes, safety TJ Ward, outside linebacker Lavonte David, and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander have all missed time this season, but all 5 players should be in uniform for this one, for the first time since their first game of the season. Of course, the Buccaneers now have new injury concerns with Winston, but at least their defense is healthy.

The Buccaneers are also in a good spot because they’re in their second of two road games. Teams are 248-265 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.95 points per game, as opposed to 364-499 straight up in a road game that’s sandwiched between two home games, getting outscored by an average of 2.92 points per game, a difference of about 2 points. It especially helps that the Buccaneers are underdogs off a loss, as road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games are 115-77 ATS off of a road loss. I’d need 3.5 to put money on the Buccaneers, but they should be the right side at 3 as well.

Buffalo Bills 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

The Bills aren’t getting a lot of attention, but they’ve been a pleasant surprise so far. They’re 3-1 with wins over Denver and Atlanta and their only loss was in Carolina in a game they had a chance to win at the end. Their receiving corps are a major problem, especially with de facto #1 receiver Jordan Matthews now injured, but their defense has overperformed under new head coach Sean McDermott, who has always gotten the most out of his defenses, they have a solid running game, and they have a capable quarterback under center in Tyrod Taylor. Losing Matthews hurts, but they do get talented left tackle Cordy Glenn back from injury for the first time since week 2, to add to what was already a capable offensive line. They could easily push for a playoff spot in the AFC.

That being said, the Bengals aren’t much worse than the Bills, despite their 1-3 record. They too have a strong defense, especially with guys like Adam Jones, Shawn Williams, and Vontaze Burfict back after missing the start of the season, and their offense has been better since firing offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. Their offensive line will be a problem all year, but they have some playmakers around Andy Dalton, so they’re not one of the worst offenses in the league like they appeared to be to start the season. I have this line calculated at -2 in favor of the Bengals at home. At +3, The Bills are the smarter pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t bet anything on either side in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Buffalo Bills 15

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

No team has gone back to the Super Bowl the year after losing it since the Bills in 1994, but the Falcons have a real shot to do that this season. They have opened the year 3-0 and have arguably the most talented roster in football right now, despite missing talented right tackle Ryan Schraeder and talented defensive end Vic Beasley with injuries. They’re in a great spot this week as they try to push that to 4-0, favored by 8 at home against the Buffalo Bills, with a bye on deck. Teams are 65-23 ATS since 2002 as home favorites of 6 or more before a bye, as good teams tend to take care of business in easy matchups without any upcoming distractions.

The Buffalo Bills are improved defensively under new head coach Sean McDermott, but have serious problems on the offensive end, especially without left tackle Cordy Glenn, who is out again with an ankle injury. Even with the Falcons also a little banged up, I still have these teams 6 points apart in my roster rankings. That translates to a line of -9 in Atlanta, even before you take the Falcons’ upcoming bye into consideration. They have a good chance to win by multiple scores this week, so they’re worth a bet as long as the line is under 10. They are also my survivor pick (past picks: BUF, OAK, NE).

Atlanta Falcons 31 Buffalo Bills 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -8

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-1)

The Broncos pulled off the shocker of the week last week, demolishing the Dallas Cowboys by the final score of 42-17 as home underdogs. The casual public seems to have taken notice as the Broncos are one of the highest bet teams of the week, despite the fact that this line moved from 1.5 in favor of Buffalo on the early line last week to 3.5 in favor of Denver this week. I typically like to go against a significant line movement like that, especially when I can also go against the public in the process, and this game is no exception.

That’s not to say I wasn’t impressed by the Broncos last week. Despite some personnel losses and the loss of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Broncos still have arguably the best defense in the league. They are also noticeably improved on the ground with CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles healthy and an improved interior offensive line. That makes life easy for Trevor Siemian, who also seems to have upped his game this season. They can definitely win 10 games and make the playoffs as a wild card in the AFC.

However, this line suggests the Broncos would be about 9 or 9.5 point favorites over the Bills in Denver. The Broncos were just 3.5 point favorites over the Chargers week 1 and they failed to cover in a game that almost went to overtime. The Bills are not 6 points worse than the Chargers, even without defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and left tackle Cordy Glenn, who are out with injuries. The Bills had an impressive week 1 victory over the Jets, which was not as close as the final score, and then nearly won in Carolina last week, in a game in which they didn’t allow a touchdown.

New head coach Sean McDermott has improved defenses wherever he’s gone and seems to have done the same in Buffalo. They also have the more trustworthy quarterback in this game, as I trust Tyrod Taylor more than Trevor Siemian. The Broncos are definitely the better team overall, but they’re on the road and I like getting this many points at home with the better quarterback. I have this line calculated at -1 in favor of the Broncos, so we’re getting significant line value at 3.5. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so, even if the Bills don’t win straight up, they have a decent chance to still cover the spread.

One thing that could benefit the Broncos is that this is just their first road game of the season. Teams are 44-33 ATS since 1989 in week 3 when it’s their first road game of the season. However, favorites are just 9-12 ATS over that time period. On top of that, teams tend to struggle after a home upset victory, going 112-140 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 31-44 ATS as favorites. That’s likely because teams tend to be overrated and overconfident after those type of victories. I’m not sure if the Broncos will be overconfident, but they are a little overrated right now, so the Bills are worth a small bet.

Denver Broncos 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)

The Panthers entered the season high on my underrated list. I don’t expect them to be as good as they were in their 15-1 season in 2015, when Cam Newton had a career year, they won a lot of close games, and their defense was more talented, but they should be noticeably improved from last season 6-10 finish. They were better than their record last season, but went 2-6 in games decided by less than a field goal. They were a few plays away from being a 8-8 or 9-7 team in contention for a playoff spot. That was despite injuries on the offensive line and defense, most notably former Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly, who missed 6 games.

Kuechly is back now and this defense looked noticeably improved last week in San Francisco, as did their offensive line. Their competition wasn’t tough, but winning by 20 on the road is always impressive, as just 7% of home teams lose by 20 points or more. The Panthers had 20 first downs to 13 for the 49ers, and finished with a +10.85% first down rate differential, 5th highest in the NFL last week. Cam Newton looked a little rusty after not playing much this preseason after off-season shoulder surgery, but that should improve going forward. This is one of those lines where we’re going to look back and wonder why it wasn’t 10, so I love getting Carolina at -7.

Carolina Panthers 27 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

Ordinarily, I don’t like picking bad teams as big favorites, as teams that finish 6-10 or worse historically only cover the spread at about a 30% rate as favorite of more than 6 points. The Bills seem to be rebuilding, after trading away their top cornerback and top wide receiver before the start of the season, and could easily finish the season 6-10 or worse, but it’s also very early in the season and I think this line (-8) is justifiable against a team like the Jets.

The Jets were one of the worst teams in the league last season, finishing 29th in first down rate differential, and then they spent all off-season shedding expensive veterans in favor of unproven young players. On paper, they look like one of the worst teams in recent memory. I wouldn’t be confident in the Bills, who have major issues in the receiving corps and in the defensive back 7, but they should be able to put the Jets away pretty easily.

Buffalo Bills 20 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8

Confidence: None