Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
No team has gone back to the Super Bowl the year after losing it since the Bills in 1994, but the Falcons have a real shot to do that this season. They have opened the year 3-0 and have arguably the most talented roster in football right now, despite missing talented right tackle Ryan Schraeder and talented defensive end Vic Beasley with injuries. They’re in a great spot this week as they try to push that to 4-0, favored by 8 at home against the Buffalo Bills, with a bye on deck. Teams are 65-23 ATS since 2002 as home favorites of 6 or more before a bye, as good teams tend to take care of business in easy matchups without any upcoming distractions.
The Buffalo Bills are improved defensively under new head coach Sean McDermott, but have serious problems on the offensive end, especially without left tackle Cordy Glenn, who is out again with an ankle injury. Even with the Falcons also a little banged up, I still have these teams 6 points apart in my roster rankings. That translates to a line of -9 in Atlanta, even before you take the Falcons’ upcoming bye into consideration. They have a good chance to win by multiple scores this week, so they’re worth a bet as long as the line is under 10. They are also my survivor pick (past picks: BUF, OAK, NE).
Atlanta Falcons 31 Buffalo Bills 17 Survivor Pick
Pick against the spread: Atlanta -8