Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
The Bills aren’t getting a lot of attention, but they’ve been a pleasant surprise so far. They’re 3-1 with wins over Denver and Atlanta and their only loss was in Carolina in a game they had a chance to win at the end. Their receiving corps are a major problem, especially with de facto #1 receiver Jordan Matthews now injured, but their defense has overperformed under new head coach Sean McDermott, who has always gotten the most out of his defenses, they have a solid running game, and they have a capable quarterback under center in Tyrod Taylor. Losing Matthews hurts, but they do get talented left tackle Cordy Glenn back from injury for the first time since week 2, to add to what was already a capable offensive line. They could easily push for a playoff spot in the AFC.
That being said, the Bengals aren’t much worse than the Bills, despite their 1-3 record. They too have a strong defense, especially with guys like Adam Jones, Shawn Williams, and Vontaze Burfict back after missing the start of the season, and their offense has been better since firing offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. Their offensive line will be a problem all year, but they have some playmakers around Andy Dalton, so they’re not one of the worst offenses in the league like they appeared to be to start the season. I have this line calculated at -2 in favor of the Bengals at home. At +3, The Bills are the smarter pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t bet anything on either side in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals 17 Buffalo Bills 15
Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3