Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 11 NFL Picks, Browns, Jaguars, NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-9)

The Browns led the Lions 24-17 in the 3rd quarter last week, despite allowing a return touchdown earlier in the game and getting no points out of a goal line opportunity at the end of the half, but they ended up losing 38-24 when the Lions scored three straight touchdowns. Despite numerous screw ups, the game was one of their best of their winless season. One of the reasons for that is that their defense was fully healthy coming out of the bye, after defensive end Myles Garrett, outside linebacker Jamie Collins, and cornerback Jason McCourty all missed time in the first half of the season.

Collins unfortunately got hurt again last week and now is out for the season, but he wasn’t playing that well, so the Browns still have a decent defense out there. They’re obviously not fully healthy on offense without perennial All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas, but they do get #1 receiver Corey Coleman back from a 7 game absence this week. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are without a pair of starters on the offensive line, left guard Patrick Omameh and right tackle Jermey Parnell, and stud running back Leonard Fournette is at less than 100% with his ankle injury. Given that, we’re getting some line value with the Browns at +7.5, but not enough to pick them confidently as they still figure to have a major problem scoring on the Jaguars’ tough defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 10 NFL Picks, Browns, Lions, NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns (0-8) at Detroit Lions (4-4)

The Browns are winless again at 0-8, but the good news is they come out of their bye as healthy as they’ve been all season defensively. Defensive tackle Danny Shelton, defensive end Myles Garrett, linebacker Jamie Collins, and cornerback Jason McCourty are arguably their best defensive players and all 4 of them have missed time so far this season, but all 4 are healthy this week. They still have injury issues on offense with left tackle Joe Thomas out for the season and wide receiver Corey Coleman out at least another week, but the Browns could conceivably play their best game of the season this week.

Given that, I think this line is a little high at 10.5. The Lions are 4-4 and made the playoffs last season, but they are a mediocre team. They finished last season 28th in first down rate and so far rank 23rd this season. They are 13-11 over the past 2 seasons, but their margin of victory has been just 7.00 points per game, with 9 of 13 wins decided by a touchdown or less. They get left tackle Taylor Decker back from injury this week, but he might not be 100% in his first game back and they are expected to be without right guard TJ Lang and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah this week, two key players on the offensive and defensive lines respectively. There’s not enough for me to bet money on the Browns, but I have this line calculated at -8.5, so we’re getting some line value with Cleveland.

Detroit Lions 24 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10.5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-7) in London

At 0-7, the Browns are winless to start the season for the second straight year, after starting last season 0-14. However, they rank 22nd in first down rate differential at -1.65%, so they’ve actually done a pretty decent job of putting together drives compared to their opponents. The problem is they can’t finish those drives, thanks to a league worst -11 turnover margin. Typically, I like to bet on teams with bad turnover margins because turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but the Browns’ quarterback situation is so bad that it’s hard to get excited about betting on them in any situation. On the season, they’ve thrown 17 interceptions (11 by DeShone Kizer, 5 by Kevin Hogan, and 1 by Cody Kessler), while no other team has thrown more than 10, and that is the single biggest factor in their turnover margin.

The Browns also enter this game banged up. They will be without defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Jason McCourty, arguably their two best defensive players this season, as well as left tackle Joe Thomas, their dominant left tackle who will miss the rest of the season after 10,363 consecutive snaps to begin his career. The Vikings are not a great team with Case Keenum under center, but they get Stefon Diggs back from a 2-game absence this week and I have these two teams about 10 points apart in my roster rankings given the injury situation of these two teams.

The Vikings are 9.5 point favorites in this neutral site game in London, so we aren’t really getting line value with them, but the better team does tend to cover in these neutral site games. Favorites are 19-9 ATS in neutral site games since 1989, including 11-1 ATS as favorites of 4 or more. It makes sense that the better team would be better prepared for playing in a weird neutral site overseas game like this. There isn’t enough line value for me to take the Vikings confidently, but they have a good chance to cover this spread.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -9.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Titans

Tennessee Titans (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-6)

The Browns rank dead last in the NFL with a -9 turnover margin. Usually I like to bet on teams with bad turnover margins because turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but the Browns’ quarterback situation is so bad that I can’t bet them unless we’re getting a lot of line value. On the season, they’ve thrown 14 interceptions (9 by Kizer and 5 by Hogan), while no other team has thrown more than 8, and that is the single biggest factor in their turnover margin.

I thought we were getting a lot of value last week with the Browns when they were 10-point underdogs against the Texans, who were missing JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus, but Kevin Hogan played so bad in his first career start that the Browns didn’t have a chance to compete in that game. The Browns will go back to DeShone Kizer this week, which is probably an upgrade by default, but Kizer has had his own problems turning the ball over and we’re not getting the same value with the Browns that we were getting last week, as they are 6 point home underdogs against the Titans. I have this line calculated at -5.5.

The Browns are also in a tough spot with a trip to London on deck. Teams are just 14-24 ATS all-time before a trip over to London and the Browns have a tough game waiting for them there, as the early line has them as 7.5 point underdogs on the neutral field against the Vikings. Teams are just 52-85 ATS since 2008 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, as it’s very tough for inferior teams to keep it close with a superior team when they have another tough game on deck. I can’t bet on the Titans because of the uncertainty with Marcus Mariota’s injury, but, if he’s close to 100% in his 2nd game back from the hamstring injury, the Titans should win this easily.

Tennessee Titans 24 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 6 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Texans

Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Houston Texans (2-3)

The Browns are 0-5 and tied for the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league at -7. Fortunately for them, turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, the Browns were -2 against the Jets last week and teams that post a -2 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week. If you look at other numbers as well, there’s really no week-to-week correlation between turnover margins. That’s great news for a team that has actually moved the ball pretty well this season when they aren’t turning the ball over.

The Browns rank 25th in first down rate differential, which isn’t great, but it’s better than their record suggests and their -2.34% mark is not terrible. They have 8 more first downs than they’ve allowed (103 vs. 95) and they rank 15th in first down rate at 34.45%, above the league average. They haven’t won a game, but they’ve won the first down margin between in 3 of 5 games, including last week’s 17-14 home loss to the Jets, a game in which the Browns had 3 drives down inside the Jets’ 5-yard line that did not result in points (interception, fumble, failed 4th down conversion) and missed 2 field goals (39-yard and 52-yard). The Browns lost by 3 despite winning the first down battle 22-14.

Not only are turnover margins inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but the Browns also made a smart, proactive decision to improve their turnover margin by benching quarterback DeShone Kizer, who has been responsible for 11 of the Browns’ 13 turnovers, despite playing just 81.1% of the team’s offensive snaps. In addition to the turnovers, Kizer was completing just 50.9% of his passes for an average of 5.35 YPA. The 2nd round rookie was a disaster in 5 starts and will be replaced by 2016 5th round pick Kevin Hogan, who has significantly outplayed him in limited action this season, completing 68.9% of his passes for 9.92 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Hogan might not be great in his first career start, but going with him instead of Kizer increases their likelihood of winning this game.

Their big mistake might have been not going to Hogan sooner, as the Browns’ schedule has been pretty easy so far (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, NY Jets) and gets harder going forward. They get lucky this week though, as they head to Houston to face a Texans team that just lost their two best defensive players, defensive end JJ Watt and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, for the season with injuries. The Texans’ offense is improved with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson under center and 2nd year wide receiver Will Fuller playing well since his return from a broken collarbone, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and now have major problems on defense too.

They shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anyone. This line was -8.5 a week ago on the early line, but moved to 10 despite the losses of Watt and Mercilus because people are overreacting to the Browns’ loss to the Jets, a game the Browns likely would have won if they had played Hogan all game. The one concern with taking the Browns is that the Texans are going into a bye and teams are 65-24 ATS as 6+ point home favorites before a bye since 2002, but the Texans shouldn’t be favored by this many points and will have a very hard time covering as 10 point favorites without Watt and Mercilus. I have this line calculated at -5.5 in favor of the Texans, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the visitors. This is my Pick of the Week.

Houston Texans 23 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 5 NFL Picks, Browns, Jets, NFL Picks

New York Jets (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Going into the season, the Jets were seen as one of the worst teams in recent memory and a legitimate candidate to go 0-16, after completely gutting their roster this off-season. However, they’ve managed to win two games in a row, so the general public is starting to think they might not be so bad. The Browns were favored by 4 in this game on the early line last week, but now this line is even, which is a significant line movement given that about 30% of games are decided by 4 points or less. That’s partially because the Browns got blown out by the Bengals, but I think the public is overrating the Jets because of their record.

I still have them ranked dead last in my roster rankings, especially given that they’re missing talented edge defender Kony Ealy with injury. Their first win came at home against the Dolphins, who are one of the worst teams in the league and who was playing in London the following week, and their second win came in overtime at home against the Jaguars, a middling team at best who had just returned from London. Despite the easy schedule and the two wins, they still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. Their defense has been middle of the pack, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 34.34% rate, but their offense has been horrendous, only picking up first downs at a 29.11% rate. On paper, this is still arguably the least talented team in the league, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if they ultimately end up with only 3-5 wins when all is said and done.

They get another easy game this week, but they have to travel to Cleveland after spending the last two games at home and they’ve looked pretty bad on the road thus far. As bad as the Browns are, I still have them one point better than the Jets, so I have this line at -4, which is where the line was before the significant line movement. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. The Jets are also in a tough spot with a huge home game against the Patriots on deck. Teams are 20-43 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 7 or more and the Jets are underdogs of 9.5 on the early line. There’s enough line value here for me to make a small bet on the Browns, but it’s hard to be too confident in them right now, even if all they have to do is win at home against a terrible team.

Sunday Update: This line has jumped to Cleveland +2 and the money line is now worth a play at +110.

Cleveland Browns 24 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-3)

After not scoring a touchdown in either of their first 2 games, the Bengals nearly beat the Packers in Green Bay last week, taking a 21-7 lead early before eventually losing in overtime. The Browns, meanwhile, blew their first opportunity to be road favorites since 2007, losing 31-28 in Indianapolis in a game in which they got down 28-7 early. As a result, this line has shifted from 1.5 in favor of the visiting Bengals on the early line to 3 this week.

Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements like that, but I think this line is about right. The Bengals’ offense is better than it looked when they were held without a touchdown by 2 of the better defenses in the league (Baltimore and Houston) and they now have a new playcaller with Ken Zampese getting relieved of his duties after week 2. Green Bay was missing several key players in that near loss, but the Bengals should still be pleased with their progress, as taking the Packers to overtime in Lambeau is not easy feat as long as Aaron Rodgers in healthy. They’ll have offensive issues all year because of their offensive line, but they have an underrated defense and they’re definitely better than their record suggests.

The Browns, meanwhile, have major issues, as they are missing arguably their three best front 7 players with injuries. Linebacker Jamie Collins will miss his 2nd straight game. Defensive end Myles Garrett will miss his 4th straight game. And defensive tackle Danny Shelton will join them on the sideline for the first time. Without those three, the Browns have arguably the worst defense in the entire league. I have these two teams about 6 points apart in my roster rankings, so this line is about right. I’m taking the Browns for one reason only and that’s because the public is betting heavily on Cincinnati, but this is maybe my lowest confidence pick of the week. A push seems like a good possibility as well, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: None

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 3 NFL Picks, Browns, Colts, NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, but injuries are the major reason why. Obviously the injury to Andrew Luck is the big one, but they’re also missing top cornerback Vontae Davis, talented hybrid safety/linebacker Clayton Geathers, and starting center Ryan Kelly. The Browns enter this game with significant injuries too though, and unlike the Colts, they are not that good even when healthy.

Rookie defensive end Myles Garrett, the #1 overall pick in the draft, remains out with a high ankle sprain and will be joined on the sideline this week by linebacker Jamie Collins, who has a concussion. Those are arguably their two best defensive players, from a defense that wasn’t good to begin with. The Colts are significantly better with Jacoby Brissett under center than Scott Tolzien and could move the ball pretty easily in this one.

The Browns could also move the ball against Indianapolis’ weak defense, but these two teams are about even and this line suggests that the Browns are a whopping 4.5 points better than the Colts. With Cleveland now missing Collins, I actually have the Colts one spot better in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good value with the Colts as home underdogs here. The Colts are also in a better spot as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Browns, meanwhile, host the Bengals next week in a game in which they are expected to be home underdogs and road favorites are 52-73 ATS since 2002 before being home underdogs. The Colts should win this outright by a field goal or more.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cleveland Browns 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 2 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

Coming into the season, I had the Ravens winning just 6 games. They pulled the week 1 upset in Cincinnati last week, shutting out the Bengals in a 20-0 victory, but the Bengals are having major offensive problems after losing their top-2 offensive linemen in free agency, not scoring a single touchdown so far through 2 games (including this week’s Thursday night game). The Ravens have a strong secondary, but are very inexperienced in the front 7, with first-time starters at 4 of 7 spots, so I don’t expect them to be that dominant defensively all season.

That will expose their offense, which has been weak over the past couple seasons and is arguably as weak as it’s ever been right now, thanks to free agent departures and injuries. They’ve lost 3 starting offensive linemen (Alex Lewis, Jeremy Zuttah, Ricky Wagner), 2 of their top-3 receivers (Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta), and their most promising running back (Kenneth Dixon) from last season. They added veterans like Jeremy Maclin, Austin Howard, and Danny Woodhead to plug holes in free agency, but none of those players are spectacular and Woodhead is already out for an extended period of time with injury. Injuries have seriously thinned depth on both sides of the ball for the Ravens, as they now have a league-high 12 players on injured reserve.

Despite that, they’re favored by more than a touchdown (7.5) here at home against the Browns. That’s not just because the Ravens are an overrated team, but also because the general public still thinks the Browns are as bad as they were last season. They’re far from a playoff team, but I think they’re noticeably improved on both sides of the ball from a year ago and aren’t that much less talented than the Ravens. They’ve drastically improved their offensive line and have taken a big step forward defensively, even if they still have issues on that side of the ball. We’re getting great value with the visitors here.

The Ravens don’t really blow teams out anyway because they tend to play low scoring games. They have just 3 wins by more than a touchdown over the past 2+ seasons. One of those wins came last season in Baltimore against the Browns, but these two teams are not the same as the last time they met. The Ravens are also in a tough spot having to travel to London to play the Jaguars next week. Teams are 10-20 ATS all-time before having to fly over to London for the week, which makes sense considering how taxing London trips can be for team’s schedules (hence why teams usually go on bye afterwards). The Browns have a very good chance to keep this one close throughout and have an outside shot at winning outright. This is one of my favorite plays of the week.

Baltimore Ravens 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2017 NFL Picks, 2017 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

This is one of the games where I just don’t have a strong lean either way. The Steelers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL, while the Browns are one of the worst, but this line is right about where it’s supposed to be at 9.5. I thought about going against the Steelers, who are a heavy public favorite despite not travelling well last season, but the Steelers always play well in Cleveland with Ben Roethlisberger (10-2 straight up, 7-4-1 ATS) and I think they’re the right side in pick ‘em leagues as long as the line is less than 10.

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -9.5

Confidence: None