Cleveland Browns (0-14) at Chicago Bears (4-10)
I have picked the Browns against the spread in 6 straight games because I’ve felt for a while that they aren’t quite as bad as their record suggests, especially with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back. They’ve only covered in 1 of those games, but fortunately I have been hesitant to actually bet on them over that time period, only betting on them as 3.5 point underdogs in a game they took the Packers to overtime. In addition to the Green Bay game, the Browns came close to covering in against the Jaguars and Lions, before falling apart late in the game.
This week, I don’t think we’re getting line value with the Browns, as the Bears have been underrated for a while. They’ve had some injury issues in recent weeks, with right guard Kyle Long going on injured reserve a couple weeks back and outside linebacker Pernell McPhee and left guard Josh Sitton join him this week. However, they have been better defensively since getting middle linebacker Danny Trevathan back last week and now they get safety Adrian Amos back from a 3-game absence, which is a huge re-addition.
On the season, the Bears have definitely been better than their 4-10 record suggests, as they rank 21st in first down rate differential at -1.16% and 23rd in point differential at -60. They are 2-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer and have just 4 double digit losses, including a 10-point loss in Detroit last week that was closer than the final score. The Bears were about even in first down rate in that game, but lost by 10 because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and had 2 red zone interceptions. Fortunately, turnover margin tends to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so I don’t hold that against them too much, especially since they are now facing the league’s worst team in turnover margin this week.
The Bears have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league this season in terms of opponent’s records at 56%, as only the Panthers and the Saints have faced a toughest schedule. That strength of schedule will obviously drop this week after facing the winless Browns. The Browns, meanwhile, have a strength of schedule of just 46%, largely as a result of playing in the much easier AFC. The Bears are 1-10 against NFC teams this season, but have won all 3 games they have played against AFC, beating the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals. On the season, the NFC is 36-22 against the AFC (31-25 ATS).
That being said, there isn’t enough here for me to confidently bet on the Bears as 6.5-point favorites. Both teams are in pretty bad spots, as they both have tough upcoming games, with the Browns going to Pittsburgh and the Bears going to Minnesota. Both teams are expected to be double digit underdogs in those games and teams are just 105-179 ATS (37.0%) since 2008 before being double digit underdogs. The Browns should be more focused though, as they try to avoid going 0-16, and underdogs tend to be better before being double digit underdogs than favorites anyway, as underdogs are 82-137 ATS (37.4%) in that spot since 2008, while favorites are 22-40 ATS (35.5%) over that time period. The Bears could definitely look past the Browns here this week, though I still like their chances of winning this one by at least a touchdown.
Chicago Bears 20 Cleveland Browns 12
Pick against the spread: Chicago -6.5