Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (0-13)
Last week, I selected the Browns as 3.5 point home underdogs against the Hundley and I picked them to win straight up. They led by 14 going into the 4th quarter and had a 90% chance of winning with just a few minutes left in the game, but the Packers came back, pushed it to overtime, and then scored a touchdown in overtime when they just needed a field goal, meaning they didn’t just win, but they also covered. I also picked Indianapolis +3.5 in Buffalo, so I lost against the spread in two games where I had a 3.5 point underdog in overtime. Making matters worse, I had the Browns money line in a 50:1 parlay with the money line of the Eagles, Vikings, Falcons, and 49ers, who all won.
This week, I am a lot less confident in the Browns, and not just because of what happened last week. The Browns have been competitive in more games than you’d think this season, despite their record, and could easily cover the 7 here. However, the Ravens have had a lot of success against low level teams this season. They’ve beaten the Bengals, the Browns, the EJ Manuel led Raiders, the Matt Moore led Dolphins, the Brett Hundley led Packers, and the Tom Savage led Packers by a combined 121 points, with all 6 wins coming by at least a touchdown. Their defense isn’t as good since they lost top cornerback Jimmy Smith, but their offense has been a lot better in recent weeks thanks to the emergence of lead back Alex Collins
The Ravens are also in a great spot because they have another easy game on deck, as they host the lowly Colts next week. Favorites of 6 or more are 70-42 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6 or more again, as teams tend to take care of business against inferior teams when they don’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better with receivers Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back and who have been competitive in most of their recent games, but I can’t take Cleveland with any confidence this week.
Baltimore Ravens 19 Cleveland Browns 13
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7