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St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Rams, Texans, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3)

It’s weird to be saying this because I held that the Texans were overrated coming into the season, but I actually think the Texans are underrated right now. They’ve faced a very tough schedule thus far, playing Baltimore, Tennessee, San Diego, and San Francisco, and Seattle. San Diego is probably the worst of the bunch and even they’re decent. They’ve also been killed off of returns. The Texans are -46 in points differential right now, but they are -28 in points off of returns as they’ve allowed 4 defensive touchdowns.

That won’t continue. Even if the Texans continue to turn the ball over at a rate of 2.2 per game, they are unlikely to allow 36% of them to be returned for a touchdown. And they might not even continue to turn the ball over at this rate. They are unlikely to continue recovering just 30.0% of fumbles that hit the ground and Matt Schaub, while he’s definitely having a down year, probably won’t continue throwing an interception at a rate nearly double his career rate. For his career, he throws an interception on 2.6% of attempts. This season, he’s at 4.2%, partly because of their tough schedule. Their -8 turnover margin is one of the worst in the NFL and a big part of the reason they’ve struggled. The Texans are actually moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a 5% differential that is 6th best in the NFL, despite their tough schedule.

This is a perfect chance for them to get back on track here, with the Rams coming to town. The Rams have already failed to cover similar lines against similar caliber opponents, in Atlanta and Dallas. They beat the Cardinals at home by 3 week 1, but they then trailed Atlanta 21-0 early before injuries and garbage time, they lost 31-7 to the Cowboys, and they lost 35-11 to the 49ers.

They beat Jacksonville by 14 last week, but that’s not even that impressive. They barely even covered the spread, beating the 12 point spread by 2, their first cover of the season. The Texans also haven’t covered this season, but that’s because I think they’ve been overrated. That’s no longer the case. I like their chances of re-establishing themselves here and blowing out the Rams. I wish the line was -7 or lower, but I still think the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 24 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Houston -8

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1)

You could be pretty rich if you only bet on Seattle at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 36-15 ATS at home, including 10-3 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or more and 6-1 ATS as home favorites of ten points or more. Things have only been better for them at home over the past 2 years as they’ve emerged as one of the top football teams in the NFL. They’ve won all 10 of their home games over the past 2 years and in pretty dominant fashion, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.2 points and covering every time except for once. They haven’t been playing cupcakes either. They played 4 playoff teams at home last year, winning by an average of 10.5 points per game, and then they blew out the 49ers at home week 2, a 29-3 victory.

However, I’m not incredibly confident in the Seahawks ability to cover the 14 here at home this week for two reasons. The first is injuries. Their offensive line has been hammered by injuries over the past few weeks, as both Max Unger and Russell Okung have been out. Those are their only two good offensive linemen and it’s showed as the Seahawks have been destroyed up front lately. It wasn’t noticeable against Jacksonville because they suck, but it’s a big part of the reason why they almost lost in Houston and why they lost in Indianapolis. Unger is expected back this week, but Okung is still the more important offensive lineman. On top of that, stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is expected not to play.

The other reason is that the Titans are actually a legitimately solid team, even without Jake Locker. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. It was this strong supporting cast, including a tough defense that is allowing opponents to move the chains on just 69% of opportunities. They’ve benefitted from recovering a league best 83.3% of fumbles and a +8 turnover margin as a result, but they are still a solid team.

They lost without Locker at home to the Chiefs, but that game could have gone either way. The Titans lost the game because they lost the turnover battle, but they could have easily won if they didn’t. First downs (20 to 19 Kansas City), yards (353 to 339 Kansas City), and punts (both at 6) were basically even and two of the Titans’ turnovers (a punt block and an interception off a receiver’s hands) were very fluky. The Seahawks should still beat them by more than two touchdowns at home, but I wish this line was lower.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -14

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)

I was dead wrong about the Colts this season. In my defense, the logic was sound. The Colts were not an 11 win team last year. 7 of their 11 wins came by a touchdown or less against a team that finished with a record of 7-9 or worse. They had a terrible offensive line and defense and finished the season 25th in DVOA, which I think is a much more accurate measure of level of play than record. They started the season basically playing the way they did last year, almost losing to the Raiders at home and then losing at home to a solid Miami team.

However, in the three weeks since, they’ve blown out the 49ers in San Francisco, the Jaguars in Jacksonville, and beaten the Seahawks at home. Andrew Luck has had a fantastic year in his 2nd year in the league, as a result of his own development, an improved offensive line, and a new offensive system for which he’s a better fit. His completion percentage is up 8.1%, his yards per attempt up 3/10 of a yard, and his touchdown to interception rate has improved from 23/18 to 7/2. Defensively, off-season additions have made an impact, as has the presence of Head Coach and defensive mind Chuck Pagano, who is fortunately in remission after missing most of last season with cancer. They have moved the chains 83% of the time offensively, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is tied for 2nd best in the NFL with Denver, and only behind New Orleans.

All that being said, I actually love San Diego in this spot this week. They’re no slouch because of their offensively dominance this season. Philip Rivers been very impressive, completing 73.7% of his passes for an average of 8.5 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, as the offense moves the chains on a very impressive 81% of opportunities. He’s doing that without much of a supporting cast. Mike McCoy needs to be given a ton of credit. The defense is pathetic, allowing opponents to move the chains on 82% of opportunities, and they were even worse against the Raiders with Dwight Freeney now out for the season. They made Terrelle Pryor look like John Elway. However, the Chargers can definitely pull the upset in the right situation and I think this is the right situation.

The Colts are coming over from the Eastern Time Zone to the Western Time Zone to play this game at night. The game will start around 8:30 in the internal clocks of the Colts and go to about midnight. Meanwhile, it will run from about 5:30 to about 9 in the internal clocks of the Chargers. That gives them a significant difference. Since 1989, Western Time Zone teams are 47-20 ATS at home against a team from the Eastern Time Zone at night.

It doesn’t stop there, however. This could be a very bad spot for the Colts, as road favorites off of an upset home win against the Seahawks before a huge game against the Broncos in Indianapolis next week. Not only is Denver probably the best team in the NFL, but it’ll be Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. They could easily be caught looking forward to that against the Chargers here. The Chargers, meanwhile, go to Jacksonville next week, when they will be road favorites. Last week, they lost as road favorites in Oakland, so they’ll be completely focused for a superior opponent here.

Since 1989, teams are 20-36 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional home dogs are 71-38 ATS before being divisional road favorites. There are not many situations where a team is home dog in between being road favorites, when their opponent is road favorites in between being home dogs, at least not enough to make any sort of point off of. However, I think we can safely say it benefits the Chargers. I really like their chances to pull the upset at home, as they did against Dallas and almost did against Houston.

San Diego Chargers 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: San Diego +2

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Patriots, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1)

The Patriots had their worst offensive performance since 2006 last week. It was the first time since 2006 that they scored fewer than 7 points in a game. On top of that, Brady hadn’t had a completion percentage that low since 2007. Fortunately, help should be on its way. Stevan Ridley will be back to give them another option on the ground. Danny Amendola, who played on just 62% of snaps last week in his first game back from injury, is expected to be a starter and play close to a full snap count. The biggest boost, however, is that Rob Gronkowski is expected to return.

Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. The Patriots are 31st in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 35.3% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.

Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 13 games, including playoffs. In those 13 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact.

I also expect Brady himself to play better. He didn’t play well against the Bengals. It wasn’t just on his receiving corps. However, this is the type of situation he usually dominates in, when he’s doubted and when he’s facing a tough opponent. In his career, Tom Brady is 26-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 70.3% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 27-9-1 ATS, including 10-4 ATS even as favorites. Even though the Patriots are being favored here, most people don’t expect them to win. The public is pounding the Saints as underdogs. Usually, the public loses and the odds makers win. There’s a reason for that.

The Patriots aren’t big favorites though, as favorites of just a point and a half. They pretty much need to win straight up. Tom Brady usually dominates against the spread in situations where he just needs to win straight up, going 39-15 ATS in his career in that situation, including 12-3 ATS at home. Tom Brady also usually dominates off a loss. He is 26-15 ATS off a loss, including 16-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 29-5 SU off a loss. I expect the Patriots to be at their sharpest in their biggest test this season here and win. Remember, their defense has been incredible, as opponents have moved the chains on 67% of chances this season. Even without Vince Wilfork, they played great defense against the Bengals.

This would be a higher confidence play if not for two things. One is the possibility that Brady is more at fault for their slow start than we think. The Patriots are moving the chains on 70% of chances this season. For a team that was moving the chains at about an 85% rate in 2012, that’s unheard of. Tom Brady needs to take some of the blame. He hasn’t played well this season.

Discomfort with new receivers is a factor, but he has a negative passing grade on ProFootballFocus, who usually does a good job of determining who is at fault. It’s possible he’s turning into late career Dan Marino. He definitely has diminished arm strength, but that alone wouldn’t hold him back. Peyton Manning has diminished arm strength, but that doesn’t seem to affect him. It’s something to watch going forward and something that holds me back from being too confident in the Patriots.

The other is just how good the Saints have been playing this season. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate offensively. That’s no surprise, considering how well the Saints’ offense has played since Drew Brees came to town. However, they have been very good defensively as well, as opponents have moved the chains on 68% of opportunities, which is absurd considering they set the NFL record for yards allowed last season and ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed.

Rob Ryan’s new defensive scheme has made a huge difference and allowed young players like Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette to break out. That 13% differential is best in the NFL, even ahead of Denver, whose defense is suspect. I really wish we were getting points with the Patriots. However, they should still be the right side and I’m pretty confident in that. One final note, if Gronk is surprisingly ruled out, I’ll drop this to a low confidence pick. Don’t actually put any money on the Patriots until Gronk’s status is confirmed.

Final update: Gronk is out, but I’ve decided to leave this as a medium confidence pick. The Patriots’ history with Tom Brady in this type of game is too powerful to ignore. I’m running the risk that these aren’t the same old Patriots anymore, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

New England Patriots 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0)

Anyone who puts any money on this game is a degenerate gambler and should seek help. You never want to lay 27 points with any NFL team. The highest line ever in NFL history was 23.5 points and the highest line ever covered in NFL history was 20.5 points. No team has covered as 20 point favorites since 1992 (0-8 ATS in their last 8 opportunities).

However, you don’t really want to bet on Jacksonville in this one either. Jacksonville is getting blown out. There is no doubt about it. Denver is moving the chains on 87% of opportunities, a ridiculous rate, including an absurd 100 first downs to 3 punts over their last 3 games. Jacksonville’s defense is equally as bad as Dallas, Oakland, and Philadelphia, who the Broncos have been able to score against at will, as the Jaguars are allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. Denver is probably going to score almost every time out again.

Denver’s defense isn’t great, as they’ve allowed opponents to move the chains on 75% of opportunities, but the Jaguars are moving the chains on just 59% of opportunities and have lost one of their few strong points, their two offensive tackles, in the last two weeks. Even with a slightly superior Chad Henne taking over for a once again injured Blaine Gabbert, It wouldn’t be me at shock if the Jaguars didn’t score a touchdown until garbage time (which could start in the 2nd quarter). This line is justified.

I don’t expect the Broncos to go undefeated or the Jaguars to be winless just because that’s really hard to do either way, but there is no way, barring a Manning injury, that Jacksonville doesn’t lose by two touchdowns or more. They’re getting blown out. It’s futile to bet on whether or not they’re getting blown out by 21 or 35 or 28 or whatever. That’s the definition of a degenerate gambler. The Broncos could easily pull Manning in the 3rd quarter and throw Brock Osweiler out there. The Jaguars could easily mount a garbage time drive that cut the margin of victory from 31 to 24. Don’t bet actually money on this game. Out of principle, I’m taking the Jaguars (and I have to mention that the Jaguars are road dogs off of a road loss, a 65% covering situation historically), but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 42 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +27

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Bills, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. This year, they’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots, who are probably playoff teams, but lost to the Browns. It’s very possible that they are just a better team this year, but they lost to the Browns because it was a “sandwich” game between the Packers game and Patriots game. However, this game could be a similar situation, in Buffalo as favorites of more than a touchdown plus, after last week’s big win. Of course, I’m not going to pretend to have a read on the Bengals, who I am 0-4-1 ATS when picking their games (46-25-1 ATS picking everyone else’s).

I also really hate to back the Bills this week, even as touchdown underdogs at home, given their quarterback situation. EJ Manuel is out for at least 6 weeks, so Thaddeus Lewis, signed off the practice squad, will start, after undrafted rookie backup Jeff Tuel went 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six in relief of Manuel last week. I don’t trust a practice squad quarterback who couldn’t even beat out Jeff Tuel for the backup job. Lewis has one career start under his belt, going 22 of 32 for 204 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in a 24-10 loss to the Steelers week 17 last year, as a member of the Browns, the Steelers’ only win in their last 8 games. Who’s to say this couldn’t be a close game late and Lewis throws a pick six for a front door cover?

If I had to pick a side though, it would be Buffalo. I feel this line shift (from Cincinnati -3.5 to Buffalo -7.5) is sufficient enough to adjust for Manuel’s absence. On top of that, the Bills are actually getting healthier on defense as Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore are expected to make their season debut in the secondary for the Bills. They return to a defense that has done a great job of stopping teams without much talent in their secondary. Opponents have moved the chains on just 70% of opportunities this season. The Bills’ defense could keep this a close defensive battle and cover the 7.5. Finally, home dogs of 7.5+ or more are 16-3 ATS since 2011. I’m not confident at all in the Bills though.

Cincinnati Bengals 13 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

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Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 5-0

The Broncos proved themselves to be human in Dallas this week, even in a win. They probably won’t go 16-0. That’s just really, really hard to do. Someone will upset them once or twice at least this season. However, I’m moving them to the top spot because the Seahawks lost in Indianapolis this week. I still believe the Seahawks could easily beat the Broncos in a cold weather Super Bowl and that the gap between them is much more minimal than people think (throw New Orleans in there as well).

Week 5 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

Week 5 Duds

LE Derek Wolfe

DT Kevin Vickerson

CB Tony Carter

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

SS Duke Ihenacho

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

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Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 4-1

I thought when the Seahawks won in Carolina (after winning in Chicago, Washington, blowing out Buffalo, and almost winning in Atlanta late last year) that it meant the Seahawks had turned a corner on the road. However, they almost lost in Houston and then last week they did lose in Indianapolis. The Colts are a good team and there’s no shame in losing there, but I’m moving the Seahawks down, essentially from 1a to 1b to Denver’s 1a. That win in Carolina doesn’t look so impressive anymore either.

Week 5 Studs

None

Week 5 Duds

LT Paul McQuistan

RG JR Sweezy

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

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Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 5-0

I honestly feel like this team is as good as the Seahawks and Broncos. They are deadly at home and they proved last week they can play well on the road as well. They move the chains on 81% of opportunities and opponents move the chains on 68% of opportunities, a league leading differential. This week is their biggest test of the season in New England. It’ll be a benchmark game for both teams.

Week 5 Studs

QB Drew Brees

RE Cameron Jordan

Week 5 Duds

CB Jabari Greer

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

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Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 4-1

The Patriots are moving the chains on 70% of chances this season. For a team that was moving the balls at about an 85% rate in 2012, that’s unheard of. Things will get better as Danny Amendola gets healthier and Rob Gronkowski returns and eventually Shane Vereen returns. However, there’s no guarantee they will get significantly better. Tom Brady needs to take some of the blame. He hasn’t played well this season. Discomfort with new receivers is a factor, but he has a negative passing grade on ProFootballFocus, who usually does a good job of determining who is at fault. It’s possible he’s turning into late career Dan Marino. He definitely has diminished arm strength, but that alone wouldn’t hold him back. Peyton Manning has diminished arm strength, but that doesn’t seem to affect him. It’s something to watch goes forward. The good news is the defense has been incredibly, as opponents have moved the chains on 67% of chances this season. Even without Vince Wilfork, they played great defense against the Bengals. They haven’t played a tough schedule, but they get their first huge test this week when New Orleans comes to town.

Week 5 Studs

MLB Brandon Spikes

Week 5 Duds

QB Tom Brady

LG Logan Mankins

RG Dan Connolly

DT Joe Vellano

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