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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-4

The Raiders faced a 4th and 48 in their loss to the Chiefs this week, which is, unofficially I believe, an NFL record. It was so bad that even a solid punt, 46 yards, didn’t reach the chains. Negative plays were a theme of the day for the Raiders, as they were sacked 10 times. Terrelle Pryor is to blame for much of it, probably more than the offensive line. He held the ball way too long (2.94 seconds per throw, 4th longest of quarterbacks this week) and had a ton of trouble reading the toughest blitz he’s faced thus far in his career, taking a sack on 38.5% of his pressured snaps (2nd highest in the NFL this week). Still, this offensive line is in shambles thanks to injuries and their lack of baseline talent. Pryor was pressured on 55.3% of his snaps.

Week 6 Studs

RE Lamarr Houston

ROLB Sio Moore

CB Tracy Porter

Week 6 Duds

QB Terrelle Pryor

LT Khalif Barnes

RT Tony Pashos

RG Mike Brisiel

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-5

Mike Glennon looked better in his second NFL start, completing 26 of 43 for 273 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, but remember he had 2 weeks to prepare for this one and he was facing arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Philadelphia Eagles. He still has 11 games to prove himself going forward, but if the Buccaneers finish with a top-5 pick and fire Greg Schiano, they’ll have a very tough choice between a top defensive player like Jadeveon Clowney and a 2nd tier quarterback like Tajh Boyd or, if they declare, Marcus Mariota or Brett Hundley. I’m not so sure they wouldn’t take the latter.

Week 6 Studs

LT Donald Penn

DT Gerald McCoy

CB Darrelle Revis

Week 6 Duds

LG Ted Larsen

RG Davin Joseph

C Jeremy Zuttah

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

DT Akeem Spence

MLB Mason Foster

FS Mark Barron

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-6

The Jaguars are awful, but it’s way too early to start thinking about 0-16 for them, just like it’s way too soon to start thinking about 16-0 for Denver. As we’ve seen in recent years with teams like the 2007 Dolphins or the 2010 Colts, going 16 games without a victory in the NFL is really hard. They’ll probably pull off some random upset before the season is over. Candidates include home games against Arizona, Tennessee, and Buffalo, as well as a trip to Cleveland. I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat San Diego this week, if the Chargers turn in another road dud off of a home upset, like they did after beating the Cowboys a few weeks ago.

Week 6 Studs

WR Justin Blackmon

FS John Cyprien

Week 6 Duds

LG Will Rackley

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2013 Week 7 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Zac Stacy (Vanderbilt)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.7%

Zac Stacy has taken over the lead back job and has rushed for 157 yards on 32 carries in 2 games, while adding another 2 catches for 11 yards. He’ll continue being the starter going forward and he should be owned universally. He’s a RB2 or flex depending on the matchup.

TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh)

Percent owned (ESPN): 20.4%

Heath Miller is finally healthy again and is functioning as a reliable safety valve, catching 12 passes for 154 yards in his last 2 games. He’s a low end TE1 going forward.

RB Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.0%

I don’t know where this came from. Brandon Jacobs ran for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries against an admittedly banged up Chicago defense. He’ll continue being the starter going forward with both David Wilson and Da’Rel Scott hurt. He needs to be owned universally.

WR Keenan Allen (California)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.7%

Keenan Allen continues to establish himself as Philip Rivers’ #1 wide receiver. He now has 20 catches for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last 3 games. He should be owned universally.

RB Andre Ellington (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.8%

Andre Ellington once again led the Cardinals in rushing without leading them in carries, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown on 7 carries, while Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 40 yards on 10 carries. He also continues to produce as a pass catcher, catching 5 passes for 36 yards. Over his past 2 games, he has 175 yards from scrimmage and his usage is only going to go up going forward.

RB Joseph Randle (Dallas)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.4%

DeMarco Murray is (surprise) out with what appears to be a multi-week knee injury. Joseph Randle carried the load in his absence and is expected to be the starter next week against the Eagles. He wasn’t very effective in relief of Murray, rushing for 17 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, but as long as he’s getting the opportunities as a lead back, he has a chance to be fantasy relevant.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)

This is another one I could really go both ways on. On one hand, the Eagles don’t deserve to be favorites here. Much has been made about all the problems the Buccaneers have, from Josh Freeman, to Greg Schiano, to MRSA, but they still have a lot of talent. Mike Glennon isn’t a very good quarterback under center, but they are still holding opponents to a 72% rate of moving the chains defensively, thanks to guys like Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis. They had 7 of my top-200 players before the season and 6 of them will play this week (Carl Nicks is out). The Eagles’ defense isn’t very good at all, so, in his 2nd career start after a week off, he could be significantly better than he was in the opener against a much tougher Arizona defense.

On the other hand, Nick Foles looked really good in relief of Michael Vick against the Giants. Yes, it was just the Giants’ defense, but he completed 16 of 25 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Vick completed 6 of 14 for 105 yards. The team was noticeably better when he was on the field. I’ve held all season that Chip Kelly’s offense is making a washed up Vick look significantly better than he is (ProFootballFocus agrees, as they’ve graded him below average as a passer this season). I think his offense can do the same with Nick Foles. The offense will obviously look different with him out there, but he should continue to get open receivers and he should continue to be supported by LeSean McCoy on the ground.

At the end of the day, I’m going with Tampa Bay, but I really wish we were getting a whole field goal or more with them at home. I don’t think Philadelphia has any business being favored on the road against a team with a solid supporting cast, because of how terrible their defense is. One trend does hurt them, as non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home dogs, though the Eagles could end up being favored over the Cowboys at home next week depending on the results of this week. However, I’d need at least a field goal to be confident at all.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Browns, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

I don’t know how this game can have a line. Calvin Johnson is a game time decision and yet this line has been at about -2.5 or -3 in favor of Detroit all week. The Lions’ offense looked miserable without Johnson last week, totaling just 286 yards and not scoring a touchdown until there were 2 minutes left in the game in a 22-9 loss to a Green Bay team with a vulnerable defense. It’s not just that Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. It’s the Lions’ lack of wide receiver depth. With the exception of Ryan Broyles, who is still working his way back from injury, the Lions don’t have a single receiver who would be higher than 5th on the average depth chart. Johnson is as valuable as any non-quarterback can be to his team for that reason.

Even if we knew Johnson’s status, this isn’t a very easy game to predict, but Johnson’s health just makes things more complicated. The case for Cleveland is that, even if Johnson plays, he’ll have to face Joe Haden. Haden wouldn’t be able to cover Johnson if Johnson were healthy, but he’s not so even if he plays, he’ll have a shot. Haden has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this season (he’s always been good, but this has been his best year). Shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, he’s allowed 18 catches for 169 yards on 38 attempts this season.

He was a big part of the reason why the Browns, in a similar situation as home dogs, beat the Bengals, who similarly have one dominant receiver and little else. Offensively, Brian Hoyer is out for the season for the Browns, but Brandon Weeden looked good in relief of him last week. Remember, he didn’t have Josh Gordon at his disposal when he started the year as the starter. Gordon has been dominant in his 3 games since returning from suspension, catching 18 passes for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. With him and Jordan Cameron, Weeden has weapons to work with.

The case for Detroit, however, is that Detroit is a legitimate playoff team who should be able to bounce back off of a road loss in a tough environment and beat an inferior opponent. Teams tend to cover at a higher rate in their 2nd road game than their first because it gives them an opportunity to get used to being away from home. It’s also very possible that, even at less than 100%, Haden can’t cover Johnson. He’s that good. And as for Weeden, well maybe he’s still just Brandon Weeden and his strong half in relief of Hoyer last week was a fluke against a banged up Buffalo defense. One trend also supports the Lions, as home dogs are 52-74 ATS before being double digit dogs on the road. The Browns travel to Green Bay next week and might not be as focused as they need to be in order to pull an upset as a result. I’m definitely not confident either way, but I like the Lions right now.

Detroit Lions 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)

Remember when everyone freaked out just because the 49ers lost 2 of 3 games. Good times. Losing 2 of 3 games isn’t a big deal. It’s just more noticeable at the start of the season. They’ve won the last two games by a combined score of 69-14. However, everything is still not as perfect as it seemed coming into the season. The 49ers’ 34-3 win masked the fact that Colin Kaepernick completed just 6 passes all game. They won’t be able to win the turnover battle by 4 every time going forward.

Kaepernick is completing just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season and the 49ers are moving the chains on just 69% of opportunities as a result. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s combined for less than that in his other 4 games, catching 13 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.

The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 154 yards and no scores on 27 carries in 5 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first. Kaepernick gets a tough matchup this week against the Cardinals, whose solid defense got even tougher last week when Daryl Washington returned from suspension.

The defense is, of course, very tough for the 49ers as well and things will only get better this week with Patrick Willis returning from injury. The 49ers have done a terrific job holding opponents to 14 points in 2 weeks without arguably their two best defenders, Willis and Aldon Smith. That speaks to their depth. While Smith is still out indefinitely, they should continue frustrating opponent’s defensively going forward.

Given that, I want to take the points and expect a defensive battle, but I’m going with the 49ers for a 3rd straight blowout victory. The Cardinals could be distracted with a Thursday Night Game against the Seahawks and not be as focused as they have to be to hang with a tough 49er team. The 49ers, meanwhile, have absolutely no distractions here with a trip to Tennessee and Jacksonville on deck. The 49ers should rip through these next 3 games going into their bye, starting this week. Also, teams are 25-37 ATS since 1989 as double digit dogs off of a win as home dogs. I’m not confident though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco 49ers -11

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

Before the season, the Raiders were expected to be an all-time bad team. That hasn’t happened, as they are 2-3 right now and credit Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen for building a passable team despite over 50 million in dead money on their cap. However, I think they’re a little overrated right now. They’re not a good football team. I circled 4 games I thought the Raiders could win before the season and so far they’ve both two of them (home games against the Titans and Eagles were the other two). The fact that they are 2-3 right now does not shock me. Terrelle Pryor has legitimately impressed me, but he gets his biggest defensive test of the season, by far, this week.

The Chiefs have allowed opponents to score 11.6 points per game this season and opponents are moving the chains at a 61% rate. For comparison, the Jaguars are averaging 10.2 points per game and moving the chains at a 59% rate. Basically, the Chiefs have made their average opponent look like the Jaguars offensively (and they embarrassed the Jaguars week 1, for what it’s worth). They haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both the Eagles and Cowboys are moving the chains at high rates this year and couldn’t do anything against the Chiefs. The Raiders aren’t exactly adding to their strength of schedule here and they have a very good chance to stifle them offensively.

That’s going to allow the Chiefs to execute their game plan offensively and they should have plenty of success avoiding turnovers and moving the chains against a Raiders defense that hasn’t been bad, but lacks much talent. I feel like this line is at least a couple points too low. It should be on the other side of 10, like it was before the Raiders’ “surprising” win over the Chargers. It’s not a big play, but the Chiefs should win this by multiple scores at home, on a day in which their fans will be attempting to bring Seattle’s crowd noise record. Kansas City is also my survivor pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 9 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Kansas City -8

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

I could go either way on this game. On one hand, the Cowboys generally fall flat as big home favorites, at least lately. Using the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009 as a start point, they are 9-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more, excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what. The Cowboys gave the Broncos a real run for their money last week, but that was in a completely different dynamic as underdogs and now they could be a little flat for an inferior opponent after coming up short. The Redskins, on the other hand, could be a much improved team coming out of the bye. Mike Shanahan generally covers coming out of the bye, going 10-5 ATS, and the extra rest could have been exactly what Robert Griffin needed. He’s four games in now so he’s essentially had the pre-season he missed.

On the other hand, I legitimately think the Cowboys are a good football team and that this line at -5 might not be accurate (check out other NFL Lines). I don’t think their near win against the Broncos was a fluke. Their defense clearly still has a bunch of flaws. Injuries to Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff have thinned their defensive line significantly, while the defensive scheme change seems to have hurt promising youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter. However, they have one of the better offenses in football, moving the chains on 80% of opportunities (as opposed to 79% for opponents).

Tony Romo has always had a ton of weapons to throw to and he’s supposed to get Miles Austin back this week. However, he’s as well protected as he’s been in years as the Cowboys finally seem to have retooled what was once the oldest offensive line in football. Tyron Smith is emerging as a talented blindside protector in his 3rd year in the league. Doug Free has bounced back in a big way and has been one of the best right tackles in the game this season. On the interior, the additions of Brian Waters and Travis Frederick have helped immensely. Add in a healthy DeMarco Murray running well and this is a very strong offensive unit.

Unless the Redskins are significantly improved coming out of the bye, this line is too low. I’m still skeptical that Griffin will resemble his 2012 self at all this season. For one, the 1.0% interception rate he had in 2012 is probably something he’ll never match again, even if he goes on to have a Hall of Fame career. Two, he’s not going to be as effective running the football due to the combination of a terrible defense always making him play catch up and the fact that teams have had a year to study the read option. Three, even Tom Brady took a year to really get his legs under him after an ACL tear and he’s not nearly as reliant on his legs as Griffin. There’s enough for me to be scared off of being confident in the Cowboys, but they should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -5

Confidence: None

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