Spreads/Lines on betonline.com
Last week overall: 8-5
Last week ATS: 5-7-1 (-460/-3 units)
Overall picks: 50-27 (.649)
Upset Picks: 3-3 (+420/4 units)
ATS Picks: 38-36-3 (+840/+14 units)
Survivor picks: 4-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG)
Upset picks: 8-12 (+260/-1 unit)
Last week was pretty neutral. I lost money ($460) on my ATS picks, but because I moved a few of my ATS onto the money line (lines of +1.5 or lower), I was able to make money ($420), with my money line upsets. I also made money with nice calls on Oakland’s upset, as well as Cincinnati’s and Buffalo’s. My only 5 unit pick of the week was 5 Cincinnati’s money line, which I nailed. I did drop 2 of my 3 4 unit picks, but things happen. I’m still up on the season and I only lost $40 dollars last week, +1 unit. I also nailed 3 of my top 5 picks again. This week I have 6 big picks (4 units or more). This is a big week.
Green Bay Packers 28 St. Louis Rams 16
Pick against spread: St. Louis +15 (-110) 2 units (-220)
This Packers team is unbelievable. All the angles said they wouldn’t cover last week in Atlanta. Matt Ryan rarely loses at home. I thought I had everything handicapped perfectly as the Falcons jumped out to a 14-0 lead early with touchdowns on their first 2 possessions. It even looked good when they led 14-6 at halftime. Green Bay’s best offensive lineman, Chad Clifton, left with an injury, and the Packers were having trouble pass protecting to that point in the game. The Falcons had held the Packers to field goals on their last 2 drives.
However, Aaron Rodgers came out in the 2nd half and led the Packers to a 25-14 win, as the defense shut down Matt Ryan and company. Ryan completed less than 50% of his passes after the first two drives and Rodgers nearly threw for 400 yards. There was one trend I forgot. Aaron Rodgers is 27-13 ATS since 2009. I guess he’s pretty good.
Does that mean I’m going to blindly bet Aaron Rodgers from here on out? Not necessarily. There’s a very powerful trend in play here. Teams 0-4 or worse are 22-3 ATS coming off of a bye. I especially like the Rams in this situation. They’re a talented bunch who might just need a week to regroup and stop underachieving.
Besides, they’ve played a tough schedule, Philadelphia (before everything went wrong), NY Giants (3-2), Baltimore (3-1), and Washington (3-1). I think they’re a bit underrated coming out of the bye and the Packers could overlook them. They could easily hang within 2 touchdowns. Besides, Aaron Rodgers is only a mere 5-3 ATS as 10+ favorites since 2009, in comparison to 27-13 ATS overall. I’m not putting any more than 2 units on them here, though, because Aaron Rodgers is awesome.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -13 (+105) 1 unit (-100)
The trends said Tennessee was going to beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last week. I was skeptical and wary of betting heavily on Tennessee because Pittsburgh was a proud veteran team playing for respect and to stay in the playoff mix and Tennessee I felt could have been a bit overrated. Besides, everyone was counting the Steelers out. That had to piss them off. You don’t want to play this team when they’re pissed off. Sure enough, they blew out Tennessee.
I know 13 points might seem like a lot here for Pittsburgh, a team that doesn’t have a great offense. However, covering as double digit favorites only seems to be a problem for Pittsburgh in the Mike Tomlin era on the road. They’re 0-4 ATS in that situation, but 7-3 ATS at home. Going down to 7+ point lines, at home they’re 11-4 ATS, but 2-6 ATS on the road. Here, they are at home.
Besides, Jacksonville sucks. They just lost back to back home games by 10+, last week to Cincinnati, who is hardly the class of the league. The Jets blew them out week 2. The Jets haven’t won since. They lost to Carolina week 3. That’s Carolina’s only win. Their -56 point differential is 3rd worst in the league. They can easily get blown out here. I’m just not making it a big bet because Jack Del Rio is 4-1 ATS coming off a 10+ point loss as a favorite and because I’m not sure how much I trust Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Redskins 17 Survivor Pick (4-1, NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG)
Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-110) 4 units (+400)
If Philadelphia loses this week, it’s over. It’s done. They might as well start sucking for luck. They would be 3.5 games back of Washington, who would hold the tiebreaker, sitting at 1-5 with 5 straight losses as favorites. You can bet this team knows this. This week is essentially their Super Bowl. I expect them to have the game of their lives, especially with a bye week rest coming up.
There are angles to support this. The Eagles are in their 2nd straight road game and facing a divisional opponent. Since 2008, teams are 62-34 ATS in this situation, 40-18 ATS as underdogs. I know the Eagles aren’t underdogs here, but they’re very small favorites, so it’s similar. When the line is -3 to +3, teams are 13-7 ATS in this situation. Teams in their 2nd second consecutive road game in general are 141-103 ATS since 2008. Andy Reid is 19-11 ATS as a head coach in that situation. Going more specific, teams in their 2nd straight road game after losing as favorites in the first one are 16-9 ATS since 2008, 8-4 ATS when the 2nd game is divisional.
Besides, Andy Reid has never lost 5 straight games in his career as a head coach. He’s lost 4 straight 3 times, but never 5. For those of you who are geniuses, you probably figured out that means he’s 3-0 all time in games after losing 4 straight. One trend that does work against Philadelphia is that teams are 1-6 ATS as favorites after losing in 4 straight as favorites.
However, they aren’t very big favorites here and I refuse to believe that Philadelphia is this bad. Andy Reid teams tend to struggle out of the gate and it was predictable they would struggle early. They have a new defensive coordinator and a lot of new players coming out of a lockout shortened offseason. I still think they pull out an NFC East title and it’ll start here with a straight up win and thus an ATS win.
Detroit Lions 31 San Francisco 49ers 21
Pick against spread: Detroit -4 (-110) 2 units (-220)
Wow. The Lions and 49ers are a combined 9-1. Did not see that one coming. The Lions aren’t necessarily that surprising. I thought they could be 3-2 or 4-1 here because they have a talented team that just needed to stay healthy. However, I had the 49ers as one of the worst teams in the league. I didn’t think there was any way Jim Harbaugh could have this big of an impact this quickly, coming off of a lockout.
That being said, I think this line is a little off. The 49ers massive blowout over a tired (east coast team playing on the west coast after a Monday Night game) and probably overrated Buccaneers team has skewed this line a little. I thought we’d see this as maybe -6, -5 at the least. Instead, it’s -4.
On top of that, the 49ers are playing in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM as a west coast team. Teams tend to struggle in this situation, though the 49ers have won in this situation twice this year so maybe they’re immune. More likely, it’s a fluke. Finally, the Lions are coming off a Monday Night win of 10+ points. Teams are 53-38 ATS in this situation since 2002, 26-18 ATS when they were home favorites on Monday Night. For this reason, I’m making a small play on Detroit.
Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 26
Pick against spread: Carolina +4 (-115) 3 units (-345)
This was a tough one. There’s a lot of angles in Atlanta’s favor. In the Mike Smith era, Atlanta is 17-10 ATS at home. In the Mike Smith era, the Falcons are 14-3 ATS off of a loss, 4-0 ATS off of a home loss and 3-0 ATS at home off of a home loss. They’re also 6-2 ATS off of not covering at home, 4-1 at home off of not covering at home. However, there’s something different about this year’s Falcons. They seem to suck. I’ve used those trends to bet on Atlanta in the past two weeks and they haven’t covered in either. They’ve looked really bad against Seattle and Green Bay.
Besides, Cam Newton is awesome, at least against the spread. While the Panthers are 1-4 this season, they are 4-0-1 ATS. This shouldn’t be surprising as Sam Bradford did the same thing last year. The Rams were 10-6 ATS last year, 9-3 ATS in their first 12 before the Vegas lines finally caught up to them. The Panthers almost won at home against New Orleans last week when the situations were going against them. They could easily win or almost win here in Atlanta with situations going against them.
Two more things, Atlanta is going to be flat off of last week’s loss to Green Bay. Anyone who watched that game has to know how heartbreaking it was for Atlanta to go up 14-0 in a big revenge game against the Super Bowl champs and still lose pretty convincingly. This is also a textbook trap game. Atlanta is favorites after being underdogs and before being underdogs. The Falcons head to Detroit next week where they will almost certainly be underdogs. Teams in this situation are 62-89 ATS since 2008, 21-43 ATS off of a loss as dogs and a pitiful 4-10 ATS off of a loss as home dogs.
The final thing is that this is a revenge game for Carolina. Atlanta beat up on Carolina week 17 last year. Divisional road teams are 72-47 ATS trying to avenge a loss of 14+. I would make this a 4 or 5 unit bet if we were getting better line value with Atlanta. I still don’t like the idea of betting against Atlanta when a lot of angles are in their situation, especially since they are at home. I don’t like the idea of picking an inferior (1-4) road team to win straight up in Atlanta, especially since Atlanta could be playing for their season this week. However, I’m still picking Carolina for 3.
Indianapolis Colts 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick (+280)
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-105) 5 units (-525)
The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 facing the 0-5 Colts. If you had fallen into a coma 6 months ago, woke up today, and saw that, I’m pretty sure you would freak out and jump out a window and end up in a coma again. However, this is reality. Peyton Manning is hurt and the Colts suck, while the Bengals are sitting pretty at 3-2.
However, should the Bengals be 7 point favorites here? I don’t know if they’re necessarily 4 points better than Indianapolis. Their 3-2 record is a little misleading. They’ve played Cleveland (2-2 against a weak schedule), Denver (1-4), San Francisco (4-1), Buffalo (4-1, but they were flat off a huge win against New England), and Jacksonville (1-4). I’m not so sure that if we bet on Cincinnati, we’re not betting on a team that finishes 6-10 or worse as favorites of 6+. Teams in that situation are 22-61 ATS since 2002.
Besides, are the Colts really as bad as their 0-5 record would suggest? They aren’t exactly getting blown out, with the exception of their week 1 game in Houston. They’ve hung within 7 of Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, two teams superior to Cincinnati, so why can’t they hang within 7 of Cincinnati? Also, their losses to Cleveland and Kansas City were by less than 7 as well. I like getting this team plus 7.
On top of that, Cincinnati sucks as favorites since Marvin Lewis has taken over. As favorites of 7+, Cincinnati is 4-11 ATS since 2003. As favorites of 3+, they are 18-23 ATS since 2003, but 1-9 ATS since 2008. As favorites of any kind since 2008, the Bengals are 4-14 ATS. The Colts are also playing for their pride this week. Teams 0-5 or worse are 38-28 ATS since 2002. They’re devalued by Vegas and desperate for a win at the same time. Lastly, Curtis Painter is getting better every week. I think this is the week he actually gets a win and the Colts become winless no more.
One trend that makes me a little uneasy is that favorites of 7+ are 42-16 before a bye since 2002. That’s a pretty powerful trend (one I’ll use later) and Cincinnati is in that situation. However, this trend makes sense because good teams tend to be focused heading into a bye. I just don’t know how good Cincinnati really is. I don’t think they deserve to be 7 point favorites against anyone, even the lowly Colts.
New York Giants 31 Buffalo Bills 27
Pick against spread: NY Giants -3 (-130) 1 unit (+0)
What the hell happened to the Giants last week? All the angles were in their favor. They’re an excellent first half team. They had covered and won in 3 straight weeks. The Seahawks had been terrible on the road in the past few years against teams that weren’t terrible offensively, especially on the East Coast and yet the Giants lost at home by double digits. Unbelievable.
Giants fans better hope that was the wakeup call the team needed. They have a brutal 2nd half schedule @ New England (4-1), @ San Francisco (4-1), vs. Philadelphia (could have everything together by then), @ New Orleans (4-1), vs. Green Bay (5-0), @ Dallas (2-2), vs. Washington (3-1), vs. NY Jets (2-3), vs. Dallas (2-2). They can’t afford to lose games they should win in the first half. If they are anything less than 5-2 heading into New England, I think their playoff chances (9 wins) are very, very slim.
There are reasons for optimism for the Giants this week. They typically rebound well as a favorite after a loss as a favorite. They are 7-2 in the Tom Coughlin era in this situation, including a home win on Monday Night Football over St. Louis a few weeks ago. However, the Bills are a tough test and I don’t know if I necessarily agree with this line. I think the Bills are a better team right now, so I don’t understand why New York is -3 with a 130 juice at home. I also don’t trust this erratic New York team. I’m taking New York for just a unit.
Baltimore Ravens 28 Houston Texans 20
Pick against spread: Baltimore -7.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)
The Texans were riding high a week ago after beating the Steelers and improving to 3-1. However, a week later, they are 3-2 after a home loss to Oakland and now they have to go into Baltimore. Not only that, but they’ve lost wide receiver Andre Johnson for at least this game and their top pass rusher Mario Williams for the season with injury.
This was a tough line for me, though. I feel it accurately takes into account Houston’s injuries so there’s no line value betting against a banged up Houston team. A week ago, I felt maybe Houston would be -4.5 going into Baltimore, but this line is accurate given their injuries. Baltimore is going to be rested coming out of a bye and favorites of 7+ coming out of a bye are 30-16 ATS since 2002, excluding the playoffs.
But at the same time, they didn’t look so great before the bye with Joe Flacco completing roughly 33% of his passes against New York. Houston is still a talented team, so I’m taking Baltimore, but only for a unit. I’m also not entirely sure how bad Houston is with all of their injuries. We’ll found out this week and I’m scared to bet against (or on) an unknown commodity.
Oakland Raiders 24 Cleveland Browns 21
Pick against spread: Cleveland +6 (-110) 2 units (-220)
Oakland had an amazing performance last week, beating Houston in Houston just a day after the death of their owner Al Davis. It did help that Matt Schaub lobbed a pass to Oakland’s Michael Huff in the end zone to seal the victory for Oakland. I guess you could say that’s charity at its finest. Now they return home, another emotional game for them in the house that Al Davis built (it’s a dump for the record, but whatever). Could they have yet another emotionally charged performance this week and blow out the lowly Browns? They could, but it’s tough to play with that level of intensity for two straight weeks.
Oakland is just 3-10 in their last 13 instances as favorites and Jason Campbell for his career is 1-7 as a favorite of 6.5+. I know this line is 6, but it’s close. Oakland is also in their 1st of 3 home games. Favorites in their 1st of 2+ home games are weirdly 28-43 ATS as favorites over the past two years, 19-34 in their first of 2+ as home favorites. Oakland has Kansas City coming to town next week, so they’ll definitely be favorites then as well. I’ll take the points for a small bet.
New England Patriots 38 Dallas Cowboys 20
Pick against spread: New England -7.5 (+100) 4 units (-400)
I mentioned that favorites of 7+ are 42-16 ATS heading into a bye earlier. I didn’t want to use this in Cincinnati’s case because I don’t think Cincinnati deserves to be favorites of 7+. New England definitely does. They’re an excellent team and they’ll be focused here heading into a bye. They always are anyway. Belichick is 12-7 ATS going into a bye in his career as a head coach.
Besides, New England matches up really well with Dallas. Dallas is a young team that loves to make mistakes and shoot itself in the foot. The Patriots prey on teams that shoot themselves in the foot. If you shoot yourself in the foot, they’ll shoot you in the head. It’s as simple as that. Why do you think they always dominant the Chargers?
Plus, I think we’re getting line value here. New England is -7.5 with a juice of +100 here? They were -9 with a juice of -110 a week ago against the Jets. The Jets beat the Cowboys. There’s no way Dallas is 2 or so points better than a team they lost to.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick (+185)
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +4.5 (-115) 4 units (+400)
The Buccaneers lost a close one last week, 48-3. Just 7 more touchdowns and they would have won it. In all seriousness, that big loss last week is a good thing. Not only is Vegas going to undervalue them this week, their opponent could overlook them, and they’ll be playing for their dignity. I was expecting this line to be somewhere around -1.5 or -2 in favor of New Orleans. This line says New Orleans is 7.5 points better than Tampa Bay and that they’d be -10.5 in New Orleans. That seems a little bit of an overreaction. Since 2002, dogs of 3+ after a loss of 21+ are 144-106 ATS, 58-38 ATS since 2008.
Speaking of overreaction, New Orleans was -7.5 in Jacksonville and -6.5 in Carolina. Tampa Bay is only 3 points better than Jacksonville? Huh? And the Panthers almost beat New Orleans last week. Why can’t the Buccaneers do the same thing this week, or even win straight up. After all, the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in New Orleans week 17 last year. I know the Buccaneers sucked last week and the Panthers are better than their 1-4 record, but it’s tough to argue Carolina is better than Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s loss last week was excusable. They had a short week after a Monday Night Football game and had to travel 3 time zones.
Besides, New Orleans isn’t very good on the road, especially outdoors against quality opponents, which I believe the Buccaneers are. New Orleans is a mere 4-8 ATS on the road in the past 2 seasons. Let’s look at their outdoor games in the past 2 seasons. 3 point win at San Francisco (6-10), 10 point loss at Arizona (5-11), 25 point win at Tampa Bay (10-6, more on this game later), 31 point win at Carolina (2-14), 3 point win at Dallas (6-10), 4 point win at Cincinnati (4-12), 6 point loss at Baltimore (12-4), 3 point win at Atlanta (13-3), 5 point loss at Seattle (8-10), 8 point loss at Green Bay (5-0), 13 point win at Jacksonville (1-4), 3 point win at Carolina (1-4). That’s not that impressive.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 6-5 at home in the past 2 years, as opposed to 7-3 on the road. However, this doesn’t mean they’re a bad home team. Since LeGarrette Blount took over as their starting running back, this team is 5-3 at home and they’ve lost once by more than 4 and that was a 7 point loss to Detroit week 1 this year, a game they had a chance to win at the last second.
Their 25 point loss to New Orleans last year at home was without Blount. In fact, Tampa Bay’s leading rusher in that game was Cadillac Williams with 18 yards. They avenged that loss and proved they were for real week 17 in New Orleans.
I think they can win this game here and definitely keep it close. I think they’re being devalued here because of how badly they played last week and because they didn’t blow out teams like Minnesota and Indianapolis. However, Tampa Bay isn’t built to blow teams out. Plus, Detroit didn’t blow out Minnesota. Pittsburgh didn’t blow out Indianapolis. Do those teams suck? Those 2 teams have lost a combined 1 game by more than a touchdown this year and that was week 1.
Also, I believe that last week was a fluke for Tampa Bay. They were tired off a short travel week across 3 time zones and looking forward to New Orleans this week. I think they can take advantage of how poor New Orleans’ plays on the road and win here straight up in a huge game for them, playing for both their pride and potentially for a division title (these two teams would be tied with Tampa Bay holding the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay wins here).
Minnesota Vikings 27 Chicago Bears 24 Upset Pick (+140)
Pick against spread: Minnesota +3 (-120) 4 units (-480)
I was ready to put 5 units on Minnesota in this game. All the angles are against Chicago. Chicago is coming off of a loss of 10+ on Monday Night Football. Teams are 10-20 ATS in this situation since 2008 and 33-58 ATS since 2003. They’re also in a textbook sandwich game, favorites before and after being underdogs. They head to Tampa Bay next week.
Teams in that situation are 62-89 ATS since 2008, 39-66 ATS off of a loss, 7-20 off a divisional loss, 3-8 ATS off of a Monday Night loss, 14-31 ATS off of a loss of 10 or more, 2-10 off of a divisional loss of 10 or more, and 0-6 off of a loss of 10 or more on Monday Night. Tracing that trend back to 2002, favorites are 2-13 ATS (0-4 off a divisional loss) off of a 10+ point Monday Night loss as underdogs, assuming they will be underdogs the next week as well, and I think they will be underdogs in Tampa Bay. On top of that, Minnesota is a road dog trying to avenge a big divisional loss, a situation teams are 72-47 ATS in.
History lesson time, week 14 last year the Jets were coming off of that big Monday Night loss to the Patriots and were home for the “lowly” Dolphins. They had an upcoming game with the Steelers and lost as 7 point favorites to the Dolphins, 10-6. I see something similar happening this week with the Bears.
However, I was expecting this line to be like 6 or 7. Not 3. Minnesota and Chicago are equal? What? There are two reactions to this. One, I could make my bet a lot smaller. Two, I could assume it’s a trap bet and keep my bet the same. I’m going to side with the latter. The trends heavily favor Minnesota, but Vegas knows people aren’t going to bet Chicago as big favorites after their loss last week on national TV so they made the line really small. If that’s their intent, then it’s working. The public is betting heavily on Chicago.
If that is their intent, it’s even more reason to pick Minnesota. I’m still making a big bet on Minnesota, but for 4 instead of 5. I think Minnesota is underrated. They held big leads against San Diego, Detroit, and Tampa Bay, 3 teams better than Chicago, and they blew out Arizona last week. The Vikings have yet to be blown out. They’ve lost by 7, 4, 3 (OT), and 5. I think they can beat Chicago.
Miami Dolphins 16 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick (+250)
Pick against spread: Miami +7.5 (-120) 5 units (-600)
Miami is 0-4. They have sucked so far this season, but they’re coming out of a bye. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are 22-3 ATS coming off of a bye, as Miami is. 0-4 teams in general are 23-11 ATS since 2002. The simple truth is that Vegas tends to undervalue them. 0-4 is bad, but it’s not awful quite yet, especially coming out of a bye.
Matt Moore will start at quarterback for the Dolphins, which is an upgrade over Chad Henne. Henne constantly killed this talented team with his turnovers and inconsistencies. Moore isn’t great, but he won’t turn the ball over as much. Remember, he did go 4-1 with the 2009 Panthers after Jake Delhomme got benched. This is a similar situation, solid supporting cast held captive by its starting quarterback’s inability to take care of the ball. I think Moore can have some success here.
Besides, I love betting against the Jets -7+ at this point. They don’t have the kind of offense deserving of being 7+ point favorites. We all know how bad they were week 4 against Baltimore, but how about last week versus New England. They managed just 255 yards of total offense against a New England team that had given up a whopping 478 yards per game coming in. New England’s defense is so bad that they held New York to 255 yards and they’re still the worst defense in the league in terms of yards allowed. This Jets offense just isn’t very good and the Dolphins do have good talent on defense.
On top of that, the Jets could be flat coming off of a loss to New England. They’re also sandwiched between that loss at New England and an upcoming game with San Diego. Favorites coming off of a loss as a favorite, who will be favorites the next week are 21-43 ATS since 2008, 7-20 ATS when the loss is divisional.
Will the Jets be underdogs with San Diego in town next week? If they aren’t, then they’re definitely going to be favorites of less than 3. Either way, they’re playing a superior team, which is why this is a sandwich game. Plus, teams who are in the first of two home games are weirdly 45-62 ATS since the start of last year, 28-43 ATS as favorites, 19-34 ATS in their first of 2+ as home favorites.
If it helps, the Jets have been in this situation before. In fact, this exact same situation happened last year. The Jets had just lost to the Patriots and had a home game in which they were 7 point favorites for Miami. They also had an upcoming game with the Bears, a superior opponent at the time. The Jets lost 10-6 and I made a lot of money betting on Miami. I’m doing the same thing here and I feel more confident about it because the Jets are doing worse offensively now than they were at this time last year and because the Dolphins at 0-4 are going to be even more overlooked.
Speaking of the Dolphins, they are 7-20 ATS at home since Tony Sparano took over and 17-9 ATS on the road, as they are here. I love betting this team on the road because for some reason they play better on the road than at home, particularly as dogs, 14-6 ATS. They were 1-7 straight up at home last year and 6-2 on the road. This year, they’ve lost by double digits at home twice, but on the road, they almost beat Cleveland, and they hung within San Diego until late, despite the fact that they had to switch quarterbacks mid game because of injury. Matt Moore will have had about 2 weeks to get in sync with the rest of this Dolphins offense this week and I think they have a legitimate chance of winning. I like them to win and I absolutely love them to cover this week.
LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Miami +7, Minnesota +2.5, Indianapolis +7, New England -7, Tampa Bay +4.5 (14-11 on the season).
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