1. St. Louis Rams 1-15

Pick (will): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

The Rams cannot take Suh here. Albert Haynesworth and Richard Seymour last season were two of the top defensive tackles (though Seymour, at the time was playing 3-4 end in New England, which is essentially the same thing). Haynesworth went to Washington. Seymour went to Oakland. Neither team got better, in fact the Redskins got worse. Big dominant defensive tackles, which I believe Ndamukong Suh can be, don’t win this is league. They help, but they don’t win. Cortez Kennedy was one of the best defensive tackles of the 90’s, but never won a ring because the Seahawks never quite got their quarterback situation straightened out. If the Rams take Suh this year, there’s a good chance they win 6 games next year and get the 9^th-12^th pick, making it impossible to get a franchise quarterback. 19 of the last 20 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks had made a Pro Bowl before winning a ring and the only one who hadn’t, Eli Manning, made it the very next year. You simply can’t win in this league without a good franchise quarterback, They have a chance here to take one so they should jump at the chance. Clausen, contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, is actually a really good quarterback. For more on Clausen vs. Bradford, click here.

For more on why the Rams MUST draft quarterback, click here

2. Detroit Lions 2-14

Pick (will): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

The Lions have their franchise quarterback, but they need to protect him, otherwise his development could be stunted. Suh, or McCoy if they go that direction, is a dominant defensive player, but if the Lions’ franchise quarterback is lying on the ground and/or out with injuries, there isn’t much McCoy or Suh will be able to do to help this team win. Jeff Backus is not the guy you want protecting Stafford’s blindside while he’s developing. Russell Okung is. The Lions don’t want to risk passing on him and getting stuck with Roger Saffold and Jason Fox in the 2^nd.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

Pick (will): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

Pick (should): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

I am not going to mock trades in the should mock because I was have to negotiate with myself to get the deals done and I don’t want to develop a split personality. The Bucs have their quarterback and their left tackle so they can feel free to jump all over Suh, especially since defensive tackle is their biggest need after they were dead last in the league against the run last year. McCoy is a more natural fit for their defensive scheme, but Suh is a beast that simply can’t be passed on here. Contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, Suh is better than McCoy. That’s why he set the record for most Heisman votes as a defensive lineman.

For more on Todd McShay being an idiot, click here

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

Pick (will): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

Pick (should): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Normally, I wouldn’t take the 10^th player on my board over the 4^th players on my board just because the former had a much higher positional value. However, the Redskins need a left tackle here badly. The offensive line that Donovan McNabb will be playing behind this season gave up 43 sacks last year. Donovan McNabb isn’t magic. He won’t be able to have a good year behind that line and, given his history, he’ll probably get hurt. If the Redskins pass on a left tackle like Brown here for Berry, they won’t be able to take a left tackle until the 4^th round, when they pick next. Assuming they want to win know, Brown would be the best choice as he is the best available left tackle on my board.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Pick (will): Trade with Buffalo- QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

Pick (should): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

The Chiefs need to protect Matt Cassel’s blindside, but all left tackles remaining would be reaches. I have Bruce Campbell ranked at 17, but even with the need at left tackle it would be very hard for the Chiefs to justify passing on Berry, my 4^th ranked prospect, here, especially when they’ve been so bad on defense. Positional value is a good motto to go by up to a point and passing on an elite prospect like Berry for a 2^nd tier left tackle is where I draw that line, unless of course I needed pass protectors as badly as the Redskins do, which the Chiefs do not. Brandan Albert is a serviceable starter at left tackle for now.

6. Seattle Seahawks 5-11

Pick (will): DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Call me crazy, but I think, just because you pay him 10 million dollars and give up the equivalent of 2 3^rd rounders for him, doesn’t mean a 28 year old former 3^rdrounder who has never thrown a pass in the NFL is your quarterback of the future and solves your quarterback issue completely. If given the chance in real life, the Seahawks should take either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford, and in this mock, Bradford, my 6^th rated prospect, is available.

7. Cleveland Browns 5-11

Pick (will): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Thanks to teams going with positional value and need over best available, and rightly so, the Browns have the ability to grab my 5^th rated prospect, McCoy, here at 7. McCoy doesn’t fill an obvious need, but he’ll find a way on the field. He’s the most talented defensive lineman they have on their roster and can be an instant starter at 3-4 defensive end, even though that’s not his natural position.

8. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Pick (will): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

Pick (should): DE Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

This has to be the most poorly drafted team in the NFL. They have so many needs that I just want to fix that I just don’t know where to start. Hard to correct 10 years of bad drafting by a senile old man who spends 364 days a year dead and only drafts based on size/speed combinations. Quarterback and left tackle would be the obvious place to start, but I don’t want to reach for one, so I’ll go to the 3^rd thing on my Positional Value Chart and take Derrick Morgan, a future elite pass rushing defensive end who is also strong against the run.

9. Buffalo Bills 6-10

Pick (will): Trade with Chiefs- OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Tim Tebow (Florida)

I know what you’re thinking. Tim Tebow sucks. He’ll never be a good NFL quarterback. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^st rounder on him. I will agree with that 3^rd statement. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^strounder on him because no other teams really have him on their 1^st round radar and he’ll still be there for the Bills in the 2^nd. However, in this mock, he’s my 12^thrated player and won’t be available in the 2^nd for the Bills. I could explain in large detail why I think Tebow will work at the next level, but, in summary, it’s basically this. His two issues are his delivery and his lack of experience under center. He made huge strides on his delivery for his Pro Day at Florida. That was in the 2 months between then and The Senior Bowl. Imagine if he has a year sitting on the bench to work things out. We’ve seen guys with weird deliveries get better before (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Steve Young) and it helps Tebow that he is working with Romo’s former instructor. As for the lack of experience under center, the NFL is progressively growing into more and more of a shotgun style league. Not as much as college, but if you look at the numbers, the amount of snaps taken from shotgun are increasingly steadily every year. The Bills are considering going to a pure shotgun offense next year (making them one of 6 teams in the NFL to use a pure shotgun or a variation of the pure shotgun, New England, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, and Kansas City are the other 5). That would be a perfect fit for Tebow. Also, they do have Trent Edwards, who is not a franchise quarterback, but can be a decent one year stopgap before Tebow takes over in 2011.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

Pick (will): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Pick (should): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Tebow would have fit here as well, but for all the wrong reasons. His celebrity would help them sell tickets, but he would be counted on to start right away (bad) and the scheme doesn’t fit him at all. Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver wants Tebow and, if he’s lucky, he’ll get his way (probably in the 2^nd round though, not the 1^st), but in this mock he does not get to take Tebow, but instead takes his former teammate Joe Haden. Haden is not nearly as big of a celebrity in Jacksonville as Tebow, but Gainesville is only 75 miles away so bringing in a Gator to patch up one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year is not a bad idea. Haden also happens to be one of the best players available on my board.

11. Denver Broncos 8-8 (via CHI)

Pick (will): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

Pick (should): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

If Brandon Marshall leaves town, this pick becomes Dez Bryant, but since I am putting myself in Josh McDaniels shoes, I would go and sign Marshall to a big longterm deal before McDaniels realizes I stole his shoes. If Marshall stays, this pick has to be defense. Their defense, especially against the run, was good for the first 6 weeks of the season, but sucked the rest of the season and could get worse now that Mike Nolan has gone to Miami. And its no coincidence that the Broncos were 6-0 for the first 6 weeks of the season and 2-8 once their run defense started sucking. The way the Broncos are designed offensively, as a short throw, game manage, grind it out offense, they need to be able to stop the other team and win the field position battle. I would just take the best available 3-4 front 7 player. That is McClain who fills the void at middle linebacker left when they cut Andra Davis.

12. Miami Dolphins 7-9

Pick (will): RLB Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

Pick (should): RLB Brandon Graham (Michigan)

This pick and the situation of the Miami puts two of my strong drafting beliefs in contrast to one another. I believe that by far, quarterback, left tackle, and defense end/rush linebacker are the three most important positions, but I also believe that rush linebackers are incredibly risky to take in the first round. For more information on that click here. That being said, I do have some confidence in Graham because, though he has never played rush linebacker, he has played linebacker before he was converted to an end, and I also love his motor and work ethic and, as far as I’m concerned, that has value anywhere on the field.

13. San Francisco 49ers 8-8

Pick (will): S Taylor Mays (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

I don’t love Campbell as a prospect. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued him in the past, but at his best, he is one of the best left tackles in this draft class. His upside is enormous if he can achieve it. He would allow the Niners to move Joe Staley to his natural position at right tackle and give the Niners two upgrades in one.

14. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via DEN)

Pick (will): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

The Seahawks make a reach here for a left tackle, but I think it’s a necessary reach. Behind a good offensive line, Matt Hasselbeck can actually make this team competitive in the sure to be weak NFC West in 2010. Plus, Bulaga would be able to be their blindside protector for the next 8-10 years or so which is great for young Sam Bradford when he steps in at the beginning of the 2011 season.

15. New York Giants 8-8

Pick (will): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

Pick (should): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

A great pick in both mocks. Weatherspoon can play middle in a 4-3 as well as 4-3 outside linebacker and 3-4 middle linebacker. He’s the best available prospect at this juncture and fills a need for the Giants after they released Antonio Pierce.

16. Tennessee Titans 8-8

Pick (will): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Pick (should): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Dan Williams is a perfect fit here and likely would go here in reality if he is available. As weird as it may seem, he’s a do everything nose tackle. He’s 325 pounds, but has experience playing in a system similar to the one the Titans run now and he’s also an in-state college kid. He is mobile enough to play in Tennessee’s system and, though he’s not the pass rusher Haynesworth was, he can be the big mobile body that Haynesworth was in the middle of their defense a couple of years ago and free things up for the guys on the outside. He’d be a great compliment to their roster full of sub 300 pound defensive tackles.

 17. San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (via CAR)

Pick (will): OT Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

Pick (should): S Earl Thomas (Texas)

The Niners would like to address the cornerback position, their biggest need, in the first, but they shouldn’t reach for a corner like Kyle Wilson as long as they have other needs to address, especially when you consider the strength of this cornerback class in the 2^nd and 3^rd round range. Earl Thomas allows Dashon Goldston to move to strong safety when he would be a better fit and gives them two upgrades in one.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

Pick (will):  S Earl Thomas (Texas)

Pick (should): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Nose tackle isn’t their biggest need with Casey Hampton under contract for 3 more years, but Hampton is getting old and that contract pays him 21 million dollars over 3 years so I’m guessing they would love to be able to cut him midway and safe money. Cody allows them to do that by giving them a nose tackle, something that is extremely rare.

19. Pick (will): DE Brandon Graham (Michigan)

Pick (should): WR Damian Williams (USC)

Williams is my 9^th rated player, but falls out of lack of need for wide receivers. Wideout is not a huge need for the Falcons, but Michael Jenkins could be upgraded. Matt Ryan, throwing to Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Williams, who I compare to Greg Jennings, is pretty good.

20. Houston Texans 9-7

Pick (will): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

Pick (will): RB Jahvid Best (California)

Given how bad the Texans were running the ball last year, taking a talented running back like Best who fits their scheme is a smart idea. Best might not be an every down back, but they have plenty of other running backs to spell him in the backfield, just no true #1 running backs unless Steve Slaton can bounce back.

21. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pick (will): DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)

Pick (should): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

I wouldn’t give up on Chase Coffman, a 2009 3^rd round pick who didn’t play a snap last year because of injuries, just yet. Unless of course Jermaine Gresham, my top tight end, fell to me at 21. Gresham had an injury problem last year, but he appears to have put it behind him. He’s one of the best pure pass catching tight end prospects since Kellen Winslow and he’d finally give the Bengals that over the middle target they are lacking.

22. New England Patriots 10-6

Pick (will): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) 

Randy Moss is getting up there in years and only has one year left on his deal. He didn’t give a lot of effort last year either and the Pats have won without him. I don’t think he’ll be in town for anymore than a year so they’ll want to look for a future replacement. Bryant would fit the Patriots offensive scheme well because he played in one just like it in college. I think if Bryant falls to the Pats in real life, they’ll also pull the trigger.

23. Green Bay Packers 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jason Pierre Paul (South Florida)

Pick (should): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

A left tackle is majorly needed, but I wouldn’t reach for a guy like Jason Fox or Trent Williams here. They can just go with best available which they probably will do in real life anyway because of how much they like going with best available. Spiller can help this team in the return game, which they struggle in, and give them a 3^rd round down back, and a homerun hitter out of the backfield, all of which are things they do not have at the moment. He’s the best available player who they could use.

24. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

Pick (will): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

Pick (should): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

This is a great pick is both reality and in my own little world. Wilson would fill the need left by Sheldon Brown, who was traded to the Browns, and he can move over to the #1 cornerback spot when they decide Asante Samuel is too old and costs too much, which will probably be next season.

25. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Pick (will): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

The Ravens have very few needs after all of their upgrades at receiver, including their trade for Anquan Boldin and resigning Derrick Mason. They will probably just look past available and Odrick certainly is that. Trevor Pryce turns 35 soon and the Ravens would be wise to take this opportunity to do what the Steelers did last year and had some youth to their again defensive line.

26. Arizona Cardinals 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

Pick (should): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

The Cardinals have the personnel to switch to a 3-4 full time next season, but if they do, they’ll need to get more pressure from their rush linebackers. They added Joey Porter, but I don’t see how much the 33 year old Porter helps their group of old rush linebackers for the future. Hughes can be the #1 rush linebacker of the future opposite Cody Brown, a 2009 2^nd round pick, assuming he pans out.

27. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

Pick (will): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Pick (should): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Youth and depth for the offensive line, that is the Cowboys’ biggest need this offseason. They were destroyed in their playoff loss to the Vikings up front because their old line had worn down and injuries struck and their backups, who aren’t very good, had to step in. Iupati is very raw, but has huge upside. He won’t be a week one starter, but could step in and be an upgrade for Kyle Kosier sometime next year.

28. San Diego Chargers 13-3

Pick (will): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Brian Price (UCLA)

They never replaced Igor Olshansky after he left as a free agent last year. I have some qualms about Price’s ability to play 3-4 defensive end, but the switch from 4-3 under tackle to 3-4 defensive end is nowhere near as big as the switch from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 rush linebacker. I also have no qualms about Price’s talent and, though I would have rather than Odrick, I am happy with Price.

29. New York Jets 9-7

Pick (will): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

Pick (should): RLB Everson Griffen (USC)

Vernon Gholston is on a short leash and the only reason he is still on the team is because the Jets would look really stupid to have to release the #6 overall pick 2 years after drafting him. Gholston could bounce back, but he has 0 sacks in 2 years, so I’m not counting on it. Just in case he doesn’t, they should add Griffen, a more natural fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker than Gholston was and the best player available. The Jets aren’t going to be an elite team unless they can create more pressure on the quarterback.

30. Minnesota Vikings 12-4

Pick (will): DT Brian Price (UCLA)

Pick (should): CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Antoine Winfield is getting up there in age and has had recent injury issues, Cedric Griffen is average at best and recently tore his ACL, and Asher Allen is a nickel at best and a kick returner. The Vikings, given the NFL is becoming more and more a pass first league every year, should add one more starting caliber corner to the mix. Ghee is that.

31. Indianapolis Colts 14-2

Pick (will): G Maurkice Pouncey (Florida)

Pick (should): OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Charlie Johnson did a decent job this year at left tackle, but I think even I could do a decent job at left tackle for the Colts because Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly, like clockwork, that it’s almost impossible to sack him. The Colts need to bring in an upgrade at left tackle and Williams has the upside to be amazing in Indianapolis with Manning making him look a little better than he is. Johnson is also a free agent in 2011.

32. New Orleans Saints 13-3

Pick (will): DE Everson Griffen (USC)

Pick (should): OLB Eric Norwood (South Carolina)

The Saints can use Norwood in the way the Redskins used Brian Orakpo, a strong side linebacker on running downs, because he’s too small to play the trenches on running downs, and a defensive end on passing downs, because he’s not good enough in coverage. This way, they could make the most out of his size (he’s big for a linebacker, but small for an end) and his pass rushing ability, without having to use him in places where he does not fit. 

Poor Aubrayo Franklin, he’ll have to try hard for a 3^rd straight season if he wants big money. Franklin was a contract year wonder in 2009, but got franchised by the 49ers for the 2010 season. He once again had a huge year, showing himself to be one of the best run stuffers in the league. However, this is a weird market so he only gets 4 million over 1 year here, an absolute steal for the Saints given their need at defensive tackle. He’s the perfect complement to Sedrick Ellis and once again should have a huge year in his 3^rd straight contract year.

Grade: A

By Ryan Glab

A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.

1. Get rid of the ball quickly

The Jets have one of the most innovative defenses today that has served them well. Despite an awful quarterback, they are winning games with the No. 5 defense and No. 6 run game. They run a version of the “amoeba” defense, which is when no defender — or less than the normal three or four — puts his hand on the ground before the snap. The idea behind the scheme is that the offense won’t know where the defense is coming from and the offensive line won’t know which defender to block. It’s been referred to as “controlled chaos” because it looks like the defense is confused or is playing sandlot ball. It can be a very dangerous defense, though, especially for an offensive line that has had struggles all season. The Bears need to utilize a quick-passing attack to prevent the Jets from sending the house all game. For that to work, though, the receivers need to be on the same page as Jay Cutler.

2. Confuse Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez is a bad quarterback. Period. Terry Bradshaw included him, and not Jay Cutler, on his “Top 10 Quarterbacks Under the Age of 30” list that he unveiled on FOX NFL Sunday a few weeks ago. It makes you wonder if Bradshaw took too many hits to the head as a quarterback himself. Sanchez is the No. 1 reason why the Jets won’t win the Super Bowl — now, or in any year in the foreseeable future. He’s ranked No. 28 in passer rating with a mark of 74.6. He’s got a completion percentage of just 54.0, which ranks him No. 30. He has thrown just 16 touchdown passes compared to 12 interceptions. On top of everything else, Sanchez is battling a sore shoulder that he injured last week against Pittsburgh. The best way for the Bears to defeat the Jets is to knock around Sanchez, confuse him by sending pressure from different areas and take away the football.

3. Jump out to an early lead to neutralize the run

Continuing from the previous key, the Bears would prefer to let Sanchez throw the football and take the ball out of the hands of running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, who anchor the sixth-best rushing offense in the league. In order to do that, the Bears need force the Jets to play from behind and also stifle the run game early. Scoring won’t be easy, though. The Jets have the No. 5 scoring defense and are allowing just 18.5 points per game. This could be a game in which the defense scores and that would certainly go a long way towards putting the ball in Sanchez’s hands.

4. Win the turnover margin

The Bears defense failed to record a takeaway against either the Lions or the Patriots before picking up five against the Vikings last week. There’s a reason Lovie Smith preaches takeaways and that’s because turnovers usually tell the tale of which team will win the game. The Jets are ranked No. 8 in the league with a plus-5 turnover ratio, so the Bears need to protect the football on offense to prevent placing any further burden on the defense to record takeaways. The Jets are hardly offensive juggernauts — they rank just one spot ahead of the Bears’ offense, averaging 21.1 points per game — so it’s not as if turning over the ball will automatically lead to points for New York. But it is one less possession the offense will have at scoring on a good Jets defense.

Go back to Bears Fan Spot 

http://www.bearsbeat.com/

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

Wide Receiver 

LSU

6-2 211

40 time: 4.59

Draft board overall prospect rank: #40

Draft board wide receiver rank: #4

Overall rating: 79*

2/28/10: He wasn’t supposed to be a speed demon, but a 4.59 hurts a lot. He’s not going to get a lot of separation at the next level. He also measured in at 6-2 this week instead of 6-4 so his stock could be taking a drop this week.

1/17/10: The perfect fit for a run heavy pro style offense because he has experience running pro style routes and he’s an amazing run blocker for his age. His frame is still a bit wiry and that could lead to injuries at the next level as he tries to make some of the crazy catches he made in college, but he’s certainly not afraid of anything and will throw his body around for the ball fearlessly. 57 catches for 792 yards doesn’t seem like much for a senior season, but when you consider that LSU passed 336 times this season, all of a sudden those numbers look really good. He was by far the most dominant end zone threat on his roster and his 11 touchdowns more than tripled the total of the guy who was second on the team. He’s got good height, good hands, good fearlessness, good run blocking, and a good red zone presence, but needs to put on more muscle and he’s not fast in comparison to some of the receivers in this draft class.

Update (11/2/09): Big tall wide receiver with solid hands and great run blocking ability. Perfect for a run heavy offense and has the potential to be a top receiver at the next level.

            7/28/09: Brandon LaFell put up very good stats last season as the #1 for LSU, despite the fact that LSU runs one of the most conservative run heavy offenses in the country. What really impressed me about LaFell was his consistency. He didn’t have any games last season that made you say wow, with the exception of a 12 catch 126 yard performance against Troy, but he had at least 48 yards in every game last season. LaFell fits right into the gritty tough style of LSU. He loves to go over the middle and catch balls. He never gives up on a ball and will throw himself out there to get the ball even if it puts himself at risk. On one hand, that’s great and you love that if you’re an NFL scout. On the other hand, you look at how Anquan Boldin, a player who does the same thing, is always hurt in one way or another in the NFL, and then you look at the fact that Boldin is 10 pounds heavier than LaFell and lot bulkier and you worry about LaFell’s health going forward. He needs to add at least 10 pounds to his frame, if not more, to be able to dive after balls over the middle of the field, with all of the big safeties in the NFL. He’s tall, at 6-3, and a great possession receiver, but has not flashed the high touchdown numbers that would suggest that he’s a big time end zone threat, although that may be because of the bad pass offense he played in at LSU. He’s a very physical and tough to guard because of that. Physical wide receivers normally have an easier time transitioning to the NFL than speedsters. His timed speed is below average and if he runs a 40 in the 4.5s, that could really hurt. If he runs one at about 4.48, he should be fine, assuming he can add on the bulk that he needs to, which shouldn’t be a problem because he’s a hard worker. He has very reliable hands and should be a reliable player in the pros going forward. He’s not a future #1 option, but he should be a solid #2 possession receiver that will always be there to make a play on the ball. Because of this weak wide receiver class, that could be enough to sneak him into the 1^st round, but I give him a 2^nd round grade overall. 

NFL Comparison: Dwayne Bowe

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

At one point this season, this team had a lot of hope. They may have been a mere 5-7, but they had one of the toughest schedules in the league. In fact, at that point, they had beaten every sub .500 team they had played (Cincinnati, Carolina). They hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, New York, and Jacksonville.

Rookie Colt McCoy had impressed in 5 starts, leading the team to victories over the Saints and the Patriots, before an ankle injury. Peyton Hillis had emerged into one of the premier backs in the league. The young defense had stepped up big time and elevated this team to victories over Carolina and Miami even without McCoy. Even when they lost 13-6 to the Bills week 14, things still looked promising with McCoy coming back.

However, McCoy wasn’t the same in his final 3 starts, going 54 for 95 for 3 touchdowns, 6 picks and an 0-3 record. Peyton Hillis also hit a rough patch at the same time. The breakout back, who had rushed for 1070 yards, 11 scores, and caught 57 passes for 446 yards and another 2 scores through 13 weeks, only had 107 rushing yards and 4 catches for 31 yards in his final 3 weeks. The Browns ended the season at 5-11 and Head Coach Eric Mangini was fired and the hope that was once strong has dwindled.

However, there is still some hope. Browns fans can hope with time to rest, both McCoy and Hillis can regain their form. Last year was McCoy’s rookie year and Hillis’ first year as a feature back, so it’s possible they both just hit “rookie walls” of sorts. The Browns will almost certainly try to get McCoy better receiving options this offseason.

They also will add to a defense that ranked 13^th in fewest total points allowed, a very impressive number for a young defense. Their defense only accumulated 29 sacks, so that’s obviously an area they can improve. However, this defense does look promising for the future thanks to the breakout play of rookie corner and 7^th overall pick Joe Haden.

The 49ers let Carlos Rogers hit the open market because they didn’t want to meet his demands of a 4-5 year deal, presumably in the neighborhood of 6-7 million per year. The market dried up for him today with St. Louis agreeing to terms with Cortland Finnegan and Dallas close to an agreement with Brandon Carr. Those were his two most likely destinations. So it makes sense that he’d return to San Francisco at a discount.

The only problem, the 49ers signed him for more than the original amount he reportedly asked for. Now it’s possible those reports were wrong, but the 49ers still overpaid giving him a 4 year, 29.3 million dollar contract (upwards of 7 million per year). Rogers is a soon to be 31 year old former first round bust who finally had one good season last year in San Francisco in a contract year surrounded by immense talent.

Who’s to say the career disappointment doesn’t go back to being a disappointment now that he has his money? Who’s to say his abilities don’t take a turn south as he gets into his 30s? Who’s to say that Rogers’ strong season last year wasn’t just a product of the talent around him? One hand it’s nice to keep all 11 starters from one of the league’s best defenses, but on the other hand, I think they overpaid.

Grade: C

By Mike Toast

For some reason I still care about these games and for the second week in a row I am so pissed at the outcome. How did we lose this football game? The Chefs are horrible. They are a bad football team. Their coach Todd Haley sucks. Their QB Matt Cassel is a complete bum. The only good player on their team is Jamal Charles. The Chefs ran for 274 yards. This should seem like an astronomical amount of yards but we as Bills fans are numb to running backs averaging 8 yards per carry. Seriously, did Haley really punt on 4th and 7 from the 33 and then go for it on 4th and 3 from the 20? Then, was he really going to go for it from his own 30 at the end of regulation? Is this dude on crack? I would never ever ever punt on 4th and 7 from the 33. Kick a field goal or go for it…why would you punt?

The Bills defense is bad. I know I have said this over and over like a broken record but how many bad plays can Chris Kelsay make? What loyalty does this coaching staff have to Kelsay? He got juked by Matt Cassel. That is almost as bad as getting juked by Chad Pennington like another terrible Bills linebacker did in Eddie Robinson. If you are getting compared to Eddie Robinson, that is not a good sign. The Bills defense can’t buy an interception either. I haven’t heard Jairus Byrd’s name said on air all season. George Wilson had a ball right in his hands. Whitner had a chance at an interception…but who is surprised at Whitner making no plays…again. The Bills had 28 interceptions last season…they have one this season. How can you possibly go from 28 interceptions to 2? That is what they are currently on pace for.

How bad must the Bills defense be for George Edwards to get fired? I understand that it is his first year as Bills defensive coordinator, but thus far I have seen no improvement. The Bills did only allow 13 points but I think that has more to do with the lack of talent on the other side of the ball than actual good play by the Bills defense.

I know on the podcast I said how much I like Fitzpatrick. He made some big plays today, especially that pass to Parrish on 3rd and long in leading the Bills to the game tying touchdown. When it is all said and done however, Fitzpatrick did not make the plays needed to win the game. He made two horrible throws that you can say cost the Bills the game today…the wounded duck interception at the end of regulation and the pass to Spiller that he missed in overtime. If you want to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, those are plays that have to be made. Fitzpatrick is guaranteed to throw a terrible interception in every close road loss we have it seems. As of today, Fitz is nothing but a backup that we will keep around to hopefully mentor Andrew Luck. I will not put 100% of the blame on Fitz though. The play calling when the Bills got close to field goal range was very questionable. The Bills ran 10 plays starting with the drive at the end of regulation in which they had 1st and 10 inside the Chefs 43 yard line. The passed incomplete on 7 of those plays, threw one interception and threw one 3 yard pass to Jackson. The only run was a QB scramble. Why did the Bills become so one dimensional when they got near field goal range? No one knows. On Lindell’s missed field goal, if the Bills were about 4 yards closer, that kick would have been good and not hit the goal post.

Does anyone else absolutely despise listening to Steve Tasker? In the beginning of the game he actually said the Bills defense was improving. Then, in the 2nd quarter when the game was tied at 0, he said this game was playing out exactly how KC wanted to. I am sure Todd Haley drew it up just like that. “Hey guys, we are playing a 0-6 team, hopefully we can keep it tied in the 2nd quarter.” Then, on 3rd and 3 after the Evans fumble, he went to commercial saying the Bills should kick a field goal and take the points because “they need to stop KC anyway.” Then after commercial, he said that the Bills need to try and score a TD on this drive. What is he talking about? Hopefully his producer called him out on how absolutely lost he is during that commercial break. Stick to special teams, Steve, you lifetime mediocrity.

The Bills are now 0-7 and play the Bears in Toronto next week. The Bills have had no business losing their past 2 games. I would say that the chances a team would lose the last 2 games based on how the games transpired would be less than 1% but that’s the Bills for you. This team just cannot win.

http://wnywatercooler.blogspot.com

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Quarterback

Nevada

6-5 233

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #81

Draft Board Overall Quarterback Rank: #5

Overall Rating: 72 (mid 3^rd)

40 time: 4.53

3/23/11: Kaepernick threw very well. His footwork and his delivery have come a long way from The Senior Bowl, where, at least in the game, he looked very raw. He cemented his status as a 2^nd round pick in my opinion. 

2/19/11: 3 players have ever rushed for 20 touchdowns and passed for 20 touchdowns in the same college season, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick. The reason Kaepernick is not being talked about as a 1^st round pick like Tebow was and Newton is, first was his level of competition. Nevada might have beaten Boise State, but they still played in the WAC, which is not the same as playing in the SEC like Tebow and Newton. Kaepernick also is a rawer prospect. He has a wild delivery like Tebow, but not Tebow’s hustle and heart. He played in a very similar scheme to Cam Newton, but his arm isn’t as big as Newton’s, his delivery needs more work than Newton’s, he doesn’t quite have Newton’s speed, and didn’t win like Newton did.

Kaepernick’s stock is on the rise after The Senior Bowl. He was very raw in the game, failing to see open targets and opt to run outside the pocket on almost every snap, but he did a good job of throwing on the run and keeping his eyes downfield. His pocket footwork needs help and he has a tendency to throw off his back foot. His delivery isn’t quite the same as Tebow’s. Some scouts have even said that it reminds them of Philip Rivers and that they wouldn’t touch it. He had the strongest arm at the Senior Bowl, not saying much, but it’s not elite and his short accuracy and footwork need a lot of work.

Kaepernick is probably best off going 2^nd or 3^rd  round to a team with a low upside starter in place, like say Buffalo will Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati with Carson Palmer, Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck, Jacksonville with David Garrard, or Arizona, assuming they sign someone like Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb. He’s not ready to play right away, but with the right coaching, I could see him taking off and being a good starter in his 2^nd or 3^rd year.

NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Josh Freeman

By Jim Keller 

Quick, when was the last time the Dallas Cowboys started a season 0-2, and how did they finish? 

The answer is 2001 when they lost to Tampa Bay and San Diego and finished 5-11.  The Boys also lost their first two in 2000 and finished 5-11, so that seems to indicate the importance of this week’s home opener against the Chicago Bears in Cowboys Stadiums. 

Dallas is 34-15-1 all-time in home openers, losing openers this decade to Philadelphia in 2000, Tampa Bay in ’01, Atlanta in ’03, Washington in ’05 and the New York Giants in ’09.

Dallas comes in having thought they won the game with the Washington Redskins last Sunday after Tony Romo threw an apparent 11-yard TD pass to Roy Williams on the game’s final play.  However, it was called back because right tackle Alex Barron was called for his fourth holding call (third accepted) of the game and the Redskins prevailed 13-7.

Chicago won in just about opposite fashion last week. The Bears beat the Detroit Lions 19-14, but only after an apparent 25-yard scoring pass from Shaun Hill to Calvin Johnson with 25 seconds remaining was ruled incomplete by the officials and upheld by the replay booth. Johnson appeared to have possession with both feet on the ground, but the ball popped loose when he hit the ground while holding it with one hand.

What will Dallas have to do to get back on track of becoming the first of 36 teams whose cities hosted a Super Bowl to actually make it to the season’s biggest game?

Offense

It appears that Dallas has the same problem, albeit just the preseason and Game 1 as a small sample size, as last season – converting yards into drives.

Dallas was second in total offense last season but 14^th in scoring and Romo completed just 44 percent of his tosses inside the 10-yard line. On Sunday at Washington, The Boys racked up 380 total yards – fourth most in the NFL in Week 1 – and managed just seven points.

The main culprit in this one was penalties and the offensive line.  Dallas had 12 penalties for 91 yards and Washington declined two other holding penalties. Right tackle Alex Barron was whistled four times and continued his preseason horrendous play.  Fortunately for Dallas, starting right tackle Marc Colombo is set to return along with left guard Kyle Kosier, both out with knee injuries.

But having those starters back isn’t a cure-all.  The average age of the line is 32 years and they combine for about 1,600 pounds.  A study by Football Outsiders determined that lines of this age don’t win Super Bowls let alone improve as they age. So that doesn’t bode well for improving upon an 11-5 mark to advance to the Super Bowl.

Hopefully, with the line intact this week against a good Chicago defense, Romo will have more time and confidence in his line and the game plan will be to challenge Chicago more vertically than horizontally.

Last week it was obvious the game plan called for short and flat passes as nine of Romo’s 31 completions were for two yards or less. Romo used quick 3-step drops and relied on “smoke routes” that didn’t go anywhere, screens and flares. He threw only 2-3 balls more than 20 yards downfield all night, but he did show maturity, trying to force only one ball.

I’ll be looking for Romo to utilize big play weapons Miles Austin (10 catches, 146 yards) and Dez Bryant (8, 56) down the field more and try to get Felix Jones (24-yard reception on first touch) out in space.

Chicago’s defense held Detroit to under 200 yards and just 21 yards on the ground, but it was the Lions and they played without starting QB Matthew Stafford for the second half. Julius Peppers knocked Stafford out of the game with a first-half sack on a play that drew a fine by the league office for going to the head – albeit ever so slightly.

Dallas will have to keep an eye on Peppers, who will probably be moved all over the line to create a good matchup.  Former Pro Bowler Tommie Harris is also a pressure guy and will have to be maintained, but linebackers Brian Uhrlacher and Lance Briggs, coming off a combined 17 tackles, one sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery performance against Detroit, will be coming for Romo and will use their quickness against the beef and age of the Dallas front.

Dallas has one of the best run games in the NFL and averaged 4.7 yards last week, but ran it just 22 times with a long run of 12 yards, but only one carry resulted in negative yardage.   

Many experts have questioned that run-less strategy and it has called rancor in Cowboys Nation about who is running the show, coach Wade Phillips, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett or head man Jerry Jones.

Dallas shouldn’t return to the ground on a more heavy-dose plan this week because that simply isn’t what the Cowboys do.  They are a pass-first, run second team that relies on Romo, its best and most important weapon first and foremost.

Defense

Dallas held Washington to a pair of field goals, McNabb completed under 50 percent of his passes and the Redskins’ ground game was shut down completely for three quarters until making some solid runs and first downs in the fourth to help control the clock.

DeMarcus Ware, who is scheduled to play after straining his neck on a collision with Skins RB Larry Johnson late in the fourth, had one sack and provided solid edge pressure all night.

However, the Cowboys couldn’t put a consistent rush on McNabb without gambling with an extra blitzer and didn’t come close to forcing a turnover or making any big plays.

This week the D will be up against the team that amassed over 400 yards of total offense with QB Jay Cutler throwing for 372 yards and 2 TDs to Matt Forte.

The Bears will have a choice. Cutler was sacked four times last week and 10 times in limited play during the preseason, and Chicago’s run game was stagnant last season, so do they try to attack Dallas downfield and become vulnerable to sacks and Cutler’s questionable decision making – he led the NFL with 26 picks last season – or do they try to establish the run game, control the ball and limit turnovers – they had an interception and 3 fumbles lost last week.

Dallas likes corners Michael Jenkins and Terence Newman, and will probably man-them up on the outside against Devin Hester and Johnny Knox.  They will try to stuff the run and pressure Cutler. With Chicago’s suspect line, the Cowboys hope to apply pressure, confuse Cutler and force him into bad decisions.

Special Teams

Despite missing just one FG all preseason, Dallas must be concerned with David Buehler, who missed his first career attempt from 34 yards last week.  An excellent kickoff man, Buehler has a reputation for being erratic on FGs.

Dallas punter Matt McBriar, who has one of the strongest legs in the game, missed two opportunities to pin Washington deep when he booted punts into the end zone.  The kick coverage team allowed 76 yards on two returns and the Boys’ didn’t have much in punt or kick returns.

Bears FG kicker Robbie Gould is one of the most accurate kickers in the game but is challenged length-wise.  Hester is one of the best return men in the game, but his effectiveness has dropped off in recent seasons and he averaged just three yards per punt return last week.

Prediction

It’s the Cowboys home opener, a game Dallas needs for more ways than one – Phillips’ security, don’t want to start 0-2, end talk of offensive and red zone woes – against an opponent that is beatable.

With Colombo and Kosier back and another week for Bryant to get comfortable with the offense, the Boys’ offense should be more efficient but still not where it needs to be. The Bears’ 19 points on over 400 yards wasn’t efficient either, and Dallas’ D is a step or two ahead of Detroit’s, so Cutler will not be as effective, will make some poor decisions and Dallas will prevail 23-13.

Leftovers

14 first downs, 20 minutes of possession in first half last week without scoring a point

Dallas inside Redskins 40 in three of first four series without a point

Perhaps the stupidest two plays since Leon Lett against Dolphins on Thanksgiving and in Super Bowl in Miami.  It was the fifth time in series history that the Skins returned a fumble for a TD.  Washington won four of those games by less than a TD.

Bryant had no big-play impact in pass or kick game; caught eight passes for 56 yards, a club record for catches in first career game and the most by a rookie making his debut since Denver’s Eddie Royal had nine catches for 146 yards in 2008.

Roy Williams was a no-show as usual; three catches for 21 yards but could have had the game-winner; probably had five balls his way all night

Last week was the fourth time Dallas had amassed 380 yards of ffense in the opener and lost.

Sixth time in franchise history Dallas has been held to seven points or fewer in the opener, and first since 2001 against Tampa Bay (0-6)

Austin is third player in franchise history to record 10+ receptions in opener, joining Tony Dorsett (1984) and Frank Clarke (1962&64), and Austin’s 146 yards receiving is sixth most in an opener

Romo completed 31 passes and lost just one other time in his career, in last year’s home opener to the Giants; Troy Aikman did it twice, Danny White once and Steve Pelleur once.

http://www.respectthestar.com