New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
I would say this would be the shorst game of the season, but the Jets and Cardinals from last week currently hold that title. Raiders/Chiefs next week might give them a run for their money, but this is going to be a terrible game. More importantly, how the hell am I supposed to pick a side? You’d have to be reckless and degenerate to make a big play on this game. Seriously, seek help. How can you get excited about picking the Jets as road favorites or the Jaguars as dogs of fewer than 3? There aren’t even any prominent trends that make either side attractive.
Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, we are getting some line value with the Jaguars. The Jets rank 27th in net points per drive, at -0.48, while the Jaguars rank 30th at -0.80. If you take the difference and multiply by 11, the amount of drives per team per game on average, and add 3 points for home field, you get a real line of a pick em, which makes sense because how the hell can the Jets be road favorites over anyone? That line holds up to DVOA, where the Jaguars rank 30th in both regular and weighted and the Jets rank 25th in regular and 26th in weighted. Chad Henne is also an improved quarterback over Blaine Gabbert, who started for most of their season. However, it’s not enough reason for me to want to take Jacksonville. Henne is too inconsistent anyway.
Gun to my head, I’d take the Jaguars if I had to for two reasons. One, I do think a pick em line is valid, not because the formula said so, but because this is a completely toss up of a game. Given that, I’d rather get +125 on the money line with the Jaguars than the Jets -2.5. I’m going to make this play on the money line, rather than the spread, but just know that this would rank dead last in any confidence pools and if you actually make a play on this game based off this advice, you have a problem. This is not a game to risk any real money on (I do units for confidence pools and things like that, but don’t recommend making plays on all 16 games. That’s just common sense).
The second reason is that the Jets have done a terrible job of bouncing back off of wins this season, going 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU. Those losses haven’t been pretty. Aside from a near overtime win in New England, which would have been a huge upset, their other 3 games were 27-10, 49-19, and 34-0 losses. It also doesn’t help that Sanchez is starting once again for the Jets, which means the players might just completely quit on Rex Ryan, who appears to have no clue what he’s doing. Sanchez is also without top receiver Dustin Keller.
Public lean: Jacksonville (50% range)
Sharps lean: NYJ 13 JAX 7
Final thoughts: 20 people are degenerates apparently.
Jacksonville Jaguars 13 New York Jets 12 Upset Pick +125
Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 0 units