Quarterback

Midway through the 2022 season, the Jaguars sat at just 2-6 and, at first glance, it seemed like more of the same for a team that had received back-to-back #1 overall picks following 1-15 and 3-14 finishes in the prior two seasons. However, the Jaguars played better than their record suggested to start the season, with all of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer and their two wins coming by a combined 52 points, giving them a +14 point differential and a DVOA that ranked 16th in the NFL, suggesting they would have significantly more success in the win/loss column going forward.

Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened for the Jaguars and then some, as they went 7-2 the rest of the way, winning their final five regular season games, to give them a final record of 9-8, good enough for first place in the AFC South. Part of it is the Jaguars started playing better, but their final DVOA rank, 13th, wasn’t much better than where they were when they were 2-6. The bigger difference is they started winning close games, going 4-0 in one-score games down the stretch after starting 0-6. 

It’s easy to say the Jaguars are a young team that has turned a corner and will continue winning games at the rate they did in the second half last season, but that’s unlikely for two reasons. One, that would likely require them continuing to win an unsustainably high percentage of their close games; just like their 0-6 record in one-score games to start last season was unlikely to continue, the same is true of their 4-0 record in one-score games down the stretch. Two, the Jaguars are unlikely to continue having as few injuries as they had last season, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. 

Working in the Jaguars favor, however, is the fact that young quarterback Trevor Lawrence legitimately did seem to turn a corner midway through last season. The #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, billed as a can’t miss prospect and one of the best prospects of the decade, Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, in part due to coaching, completing just 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. 

He was better to start the 2022 season, but his production was still mediocre, completing 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions through the first 8 games of last season. However, over the final 9 games of the season, that jumped to 69.7% completion, 7.40 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That led to Lawrence finishing 13th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 77.4 grade, including a 90.3 grade from week 9 on, making him the 3rd highest ranked quarterback over that stretch. 

It’s a small sample size and Lawrence might not be quite that effective in 2023, but he has all the talent in the world and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued playing like one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. Even if he doesn’t play as well this season as he did down the stretch last season, he should still have a better season overall than a year ago because he’s unlikely to struggle again to begin the season.

The Jaguars also have a decent backup quarterback in CJ Beathard, who has completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (80.3 QB rating) in 12 career starts in six seasons in the league. The Jaguars would obviously be in trouble if Beathard had to start for an extended period of time because he’s a clear downgrade from Lawrence, but he’s good enough that he can make a couple spot starts without the season getting away from the Jaguars.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Another reason to be optimistic about the Jaguars in 2023, even if they don’t win games at the same rate as they did down the stretch last season, is the return of wide receiver Calvin Ridley from suspension. The Jaguars didn’t have a lot of financial flexibility this off-season after spending sprees during the previous two free agencies, but they didn’t have a lot of off-season losses either and they will get an obvious upgrade with Ridley returning to replace free agent departure Marvin Jones. While Jones averaged just 1.12 yards per route run and is more of a #3 receiver, Ridley has the potential to be a true #1 wide receiver for this team. 

Whether Ridley meets that potential or not remains to be seen though. Ridley is only in his age 29 season and the 90/1374/9 slash line he had in 2020 seems like a #1 receiver, but he did that in Atlanta opposite a true #1 wide receiver in Julio Jones, rarely if ever facing any double coverage as a result, and that remains the only 1000+ yard season of his career. Ridley got the chance to be the #1 in Jones’ absence in 2021, but was limited to a 31/281/2 slash line in five games before missing the rest of the season for personal reasons and he then missed all of 2022 with suspension, leading to the Falcons sending him to Jacksonville. 

Even if Ridley is not a true #1 wide receiver, he should still make a positive impact for the Jaguars and he won’t need to be a true #1, with the Jaguars also having Christian Kirk, who had a 84/1108/8 slash line as the #1 receiver a year ago. It was the first 1000+ yard year of Kirk’s career, but he came close with a 77/982/5 slash line in his final year in Arizona in 2021 and actually averaged more yards per route run (1.81) that season than he did in his first season in Jacksonville in 2022 (1.79).

Kirk also had a similar PFF grade in 2021 (72.7) as he did in 2022 (74.2) and he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, so could easily continue playing around the same level. He might not receive as many targets as he did last season (133) with Ridley in town, but he should be more efficient with Ridley taking some coverage away from him and Trevor Lawrence likely to play better overall this season than he did a year ago.

Ridley’s addition will likely affect Zay Jones the most negatively from a statistical perspective. Jones received almost as many targets a year ago as Kirk (121), but was not nearly as efficient with them, finishing with a 82/823/5 slash line and a 67.3 PFF grade, not a big surprise for a player whose career best slash line in 5 years in the league prior to last season was 56/652/7 and whose career best PFF grade is 70.2. 

Jones will be the clear third receiver in 2023 behind Ridley and Kirk and, as a result, is highly unlikely to have anywhere near the same target share, with the 81 targets that Marvin Jones had last season being a much more realistic estimate for Jones in 2023 than his 2022 total. He’s an above average third receiver in a talented position group and should be more efficient than he was a year ago in a smaller role, but he probably won’t see anywhere near the same level of total production as he had a year ago.

Tight end Evan Engram was also a big part of this passing game last season, posting a 73/766/4 slash line on 98 targets. Engram might not see as many targets in 2023 with Ridley being added, but, even if does, there’s a good chance he’s not as efficient or as productive as he was in 2022. Engram was a first round pick in 2017 and averaged a 69/740/4 slash line per 17 games in his first five seasons in the league with the Giants, but he missed 16 total games with injury, only playing every game once, and was not that efficient, averaging just 6.59 yards per target, as opposed to 7.82 in his first season in Jacksonville. 

Engram is only in his age 29 season and it’s possible he could keep that level of play up, but it’s more likely that he regresses or gets hurt again. The Jaguars also seem suspicious of his ability to keep up that level of play, franchise tagging him for 11.345 million in 2023, but declining to give him a top of the market long-term extension, at least as of this writing, and then using a second round pick on Penn State’s Brenton Strange as a potential long-term replacement, with Engram not signed in 2024 and beyond. 

Depth wasn’t really needed much in the Jaguars’ receiving corps last season with their top-3 wide receivers and their top-2 tight ends all playing at least 16 games, but depth will almost definitely be more important this season, as it’s unlikely the Jaguars’ receiving corps will have the same health as a year ago. Jamal Agnew and Tim Jones return as their top reserve wide receivers, after playing just 139 snaps and 145 snaps respectively last season, and one or both of them are likely to have to see more playing time than that in 2023. 

Jones is a 2021 undrafted free agent who showed very little in the first action of his career in 2022, averaging just 0.51 yards per route run, while Agnew is a career special teamer who has never played more than 260 snaps on offense in six seasons in the league, so both would be very underwhelming options if forced into extended action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, which is a strong possibility, given that it’s uncommon for a team’s top-3 wide receivers to all stay healthy for the entire season.

At tight end, Strange should be an upgrade in the passing game over blocking specialist Chris Manhertz (6 catches in 2022) as the #2 tight end and he will be a much better option than Manhertz would have been if he has to start in Engram’s absence, but Strange also might not be as good of a blocker in year one as Manhertz was either. It’s possible the Jaguars could use 2021 5th round pick Luke Farrell more as a blocking specialist, but he has played just 352 offensive snaps thus far in his career and would be a projection to a larger role, even as just a blocking specialist. The Jaguars have a very talented starting receiving corps, with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension to upgrade the one weak spot from a year ago, but depth is a concern in the likely scenario that the Jaguars have more injuries in this group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Jaguars’ offensive personnel in general are similar to a year ago, the group that will be the most different is their offensive line. That’s especially true at the tackle position where incumbent right tackle Jawaan Taylor left in free agency and incumbent left tackle Cam Robinson is facing a significant suspension to start the season after a failed drug test. Taylor and Robinson finished with PFF grades of just 58.7 and 67.2 respectively last season though, so they won’t be too hard to replace, especially since the Jaguars have obvious replacement options.

One of those options is Walker Little, who has made just 6 starts in two seasons in the league, but who has flashed potential in limited action and who was originally drafted to be a starter long-term when he was a second round pick in 2021. He should be at least a capable starter in his first season in that role and he has the upside to be more than that, in which case he would likely be an upgrade over Robinson and Taylor. The Jaguars also used their first round pick on Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison. Harrison and Little will start at the beginning of the season with Robinson out and the better of the two will likely wind up at right tackle opposite Robinson when he returns.

There’s also a possibility that both players play too well in Robinson’s absence to be benched, in which case the Jaguars might opt to keep Robinson on the bench upon his return. Robinson is an experienced starter, starting all 75 games he has played since entering the league as a second round pick in 2017, and after some early career struggles, Robinson has had three straight seasons of PFF grades in the 60s, but he’s never had a PFF grade higher than 67.4 for a season and it wouldn’t be too hard for Harrison and/or Little to be an upgrade. Even if Robinson keeps his job upon his return, it’s very likely that this is his last season in Jacksonville, with a 17.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024 and comparable in-house replacements who are much cheaper.

On the interior of this offensive line, the biggest difference is the Jaguars should get a healthier season out of left guard Ben Bartch, who was limited to just 293 snaps in 5 games last season. Bartch isn’t a great player or anything, but the 2020 4th round pick had a 62.1 PFF grade in 11 starts in 2021, after taking over as the starter in week 5, and then had a 60.5 PFF grade in 5 starts last season before getting hurt, so he should get his starting job back upon his return. Veteran Tyler Shatley wasn’t bad in Bartch’s absence last season and has been a solid interior reserve for them for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season in 2023, he has just 45 career starts in 9 seasons in the league, and his career best PFF grade was 67.7 in 10 starts in 2020, so he would be best back in a reserve role.

It’s also possible Shatley could push for the starting job at center, although the Jaguars would probably prefer second year player Luke Fortner keeps the job, even after he was PFF’s 40th ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 49.6 grade in 17 starts. He could be better in year two and, while he would have to improve drastically to even become a solid starter, if that doesn’t happen, the Jaguars do have Shatley as an option if they want to bench Fortner and turn to the more reliable veteran.

Brandon Scherff remains at right guard. He was a big free agent signing last off-season, coming over from Washington on a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 4th highest paid guard in the league in average annual salary. Scherff was one of the best guards in the league in his first seven seasons in the league with Washington, posting a 72.5 PFF grade in every season, but he came with some risk as a signing for a couple reasons. For one, he was getting up there in age, with 2022 being his age 31 season, and he had a pretty significant injury history, missing 24 games over his final five seasons in Washington combined.

Injuries proved not to be a concern for Scherff his first season in Jacksonville, as he played every game for the first time since his second season in the league in 2016. However, age did prove to be a concern as Scherff’s play dropped off dramatically, leading to him finishing with just a 59.0 PFF grade. Now going into his age 32 season, Scherff’s best days are almost definitely behind him and, even if he could be better in 2023 than he was in a career worst 2022 season, it’s also possible that he has permanently declined and could continue to struggle. He also still has durability concerns, given his history. Without any elite players, this offensive line is underwhelming, but they’re not a bad group either.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Travis Etienne returns as the feature back. He actually started last season behind James Robinson, who had 90 touches to Etienne’s 67 in the Jaguars’ first six games of the season last year, in part because Etienne was working back from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season in 2021. However, Etienne showed why he was a first round pick originally in those six games, averaging 5.57 YPC on 54 carries and adding 146 yards on 13 catches, leading to Robinson being benched and then traded to the Jets, which led to Etienne becoming the featured back for the rest of the season. 

Etienne wasn’t quite as efficient as he was when he was splitting carries, but he still had a 4.96 YPC on 166 carries and 22 catches for 170 yards in his final 11 games after Robinson got benched and traded and he finished the season with a 72.1 PFF grade. He might not see quite as much action per game in 2023 as he did down the stretch in 2022 though, as the Jaguars put an emphasis on improving their running back depth back behind Etienne this off-season, signing D’Ernest Johnson from the Browns and drafting Auburn’s Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round to give them other backup options besides JaMycal Hasty, who averaged 4.22 YPC on 46 carries as Etienne’s backup last season after Robinson’s departure and who has a 4.06 YPC average on 101 carries in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020. 

D’Ernest Johnson isn’t that much more experienced than Hasty, buried on the depth chart in Cleveland behind probably the best running back duo in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but Johnson does have an impressive 5.23 YPC average on 141 carries in five seasons since going undrafted in 2018 and could easily see more playing time in Jacksonville than he did in Cleveland. Bigsby was a third round pick and could be a starting caliber player long-term, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson beat him out for the #2 job. Etienne still figures to be the featured back, but he might not see quite as many touches per game as he did after he became the feature back last season (17.1 per game), with better reserves options behind him on the depth chart.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While there were some changes on the Jaguars’ offense this off-season, mostly for the best, the Jaguars’ defense had remarkably little turnover from last year, bringing back all 10 players who played at least 500 snaps and 12 of 14 players who played at least 400 snaps. That might not be a good thing though as, unlike on offense where they finished 9th in DVOA, their defense finished 26th. On top of that, the Jaguars didn’t make any major additions to this group this off-season and they probably will have worse injury luck than a year ago, so they figure to be a below average group on this side of the ball again this season.

The two players the Jaguars did lose this off-season were reserve edge defenders Arden Key and Dawuane Smoot. They only played 475 snaps and 445 snaps respectively last season, but both played pretty well in a reserve role, earning grades of 81.3 and 70.3 respectively from PFF while combining for 9.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate. The Jaguars also didn’t really do anything to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Louisville’s Yasir Adbullah, so they will be relying on inexperienced young holdovers K’Lavon Chaisson and Jordan Smith, as well as Adbullah, as rotational reserve options. 

Chaisson is actually a former first round pick, but he’s never had a grade of 60 or higher on PFF in three seasons in the league and has seen declining snap counts in every season, from 569 as a rookie to 384 in 2021 and just 109 last season. Chaisson is still only 24 and could have untapped potential, but counting on him as your top reserve option is tough and it’s probably something the Jaguars are doing out of necessity rather than true faith in Chaisson, who they barely gave any playing time last season. He’s their top reserve by default over the rookie Abdullah and Jordan Smith, who has played just 21 snaps in two seasons in the league.

The Jaguars do still have starters Josh Allen and Travon Walker, a pair of former first round picks in their own right. Allen was the 7th pick in 2019 and has so far lived up to the billing, breaking out with a 78.5 PFF grade in his third season in the league in 2021, after middling seasons to begin his career, and then he followed them up with an even better season in 2022, ranking 14th among edge defenders on PFF with a 82.9 grade on 895 snaps and totaling 7 sacks, 17 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate on the season. Allen has always been a good pass rusher, with 27.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 57 career games, and his run defense has improved significantly throughout his career, allowing him to become one of the more complete players in the league at his position. Only going into his age 26 season, he should continue his high level of play for several seasons.

Travon Walker, meanwhile, was the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. That draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory at the top and Walker was considered a project entering the league, but his rookie year still had to be somewhat disappointing. He played 788 snaps as close to an every down starter, but he managed just 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while earning just a 60.3 grade from PFF. He still has a sky high upside though and could easily take a big step forward in year two. The Jaguars will need that to compensate for their lack of depth. If Walker does not improve significantly, Josh Allen is the only reliable outside pass rusher the Jaguars have.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Jaguars top-4 players in terms of snaps played last season were Roy Robertson-Harris (714 snaps), Davon Hamilton (610 snaps), Folorunso Fatukasi (446 snaps), and Adam Gotsis (293 snaps) and all four return for this season and should play similar roles. Hamilton was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 74.9 grade on PFF, a breakout season for the 2020 3rd round pick, who had previously received PFF grades of just 53.9 and 52.8 on 408 snaps and 443 snaps in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Hamilton is a one-year wonder who could regress a little this season, but he’s only in his early prime in his age 26 season and could easily remain an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Originally going into the final year of his rookie contract this season, the Jaguars extended him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal this off-season.

Robertson-Harris also got an extension this off-season, re-signing for 21.6 million over 3 years ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract as well. He wasn’t as good as Hamilton last season, but he’s a good value on that contract. He’s always been a good pass rusher, with a 9.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s gotten better as a run defender as well, allowing him to play an every down role like he did in 2023, when he played a career high in snaps and held up with an overall 63.9 PFF grade. Robertson-Harris is still better as a pass rusher than a run stopper, with 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate last season, but he’s a capable overall player and should remain that in 2023, even if he’s starting to get up there in age in his age 30 season.

Adam Gotsis was also solid with a 65.6 PFF grade last season, albeit in very limited action. He’s an experienced 7-year veteran who has been middling on an average of 411 snaps per season in his career, but now he’s heading into his age 31 season and he could easily become an increasingly less reliable reserve option. The Jaguars won’t need much from him this season barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he could still prove to be a liability. He could also be pushed for his role by 4th round rookie Tyler Lacy, who figures to start the season as a deep reserve, but who could earn playing time as the year goes on. 

The only one of this group who truly struggled last season was Fatukasi, who was a big disappointment in the first year of a 3-year, 30 million dollar contract that he signed to come over from the Jets last off-season, posting a 44.5 PFF grade in his first season in Jacksonville, good for 123rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders. Fatukasi was a dominant run stuffer early in his career, with PFF grades of 87.6 and 86.2 against the run in 2019 and 2020 respectively as a part-time player (390 snaps and 507 snaps), but that fell to 57.3 in his final season in New York in 2021 (558 snaps) and then fell even further to 41.4 in 2022. 

The big 6-4 318 pounder has never been much of a pass rusher with a career 5.5% pressure rate, so the sudden drop off of his run stopping abilities is a significant concern. Fatukasi probably won’t be as bad in 2023 as he was in 2022, but now two years removed from his last above average season, it’s possible he won’t regain his old form, even though he’s theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season. He’ll have to bounce back in a pretty big way to justify remaining on the roster in 2024, owed a non-guaranteed 8 million. He’s part of a decent, but underwhelming position group on the interior.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Jaguars overhauled their linebacking corps last off-season, using a first round pick on Devin Lloyd and signing ex-Falcon Foyesade Oluokun to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Neither player really lived up to the resources the team committed to them in year one though. Lloyd was a solid run defender, but led all linebackers with 722 receiving yards allowed in coverage and finished with an overall 48.3 grade from PFF, due to his struggles in coverage. Lloyd has the potential to be a lot better in year two, but that’s not a guarantee.

Oluokun, on the other hand, wasn’t bad last season, playing 1,145 snaps (all but 18) and receiving a 69.6 PFF grade, 31st among off ball linebackers, but it’s hard to say he was worth how much the Jaguars paid to sign him. That contract came as a big surprise as Oluokun had never been more than a solid linebacker in four seasons in Atlanta, making 41 starts and averaging 720 snaps per season, but never finishing above 65.7 in PFF grade, meaning last season was actually a career best PFF for Oluokun. Oluokun is in the prime of his career in his age 28 season and could easily remain a slightly above average every down linebacker in 2023, but I don’t expect him to ever live up to his contract.

The Jaguars also added Chad Muma in the third round of last year’s draft and he played 286 middling snaps behind Oluokun and Lloyd. He’s expected to play the same role in 2023 and he’s a solid backup option to have, as he has the upside to be a starter long-term and could potentially fill in capably as an every down player if there’s an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Oluokun is a solid every down player and Muma and Lloyd both have potential, even if they haven’t shown themselves to be reliable every down options yet, but, overall, this is a middling at best linebacking corps.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The one major injury the Jaguars had on defense last season was losing starting cornerback Shaq Griffin for the season after 336 snaps in 5 games. Griffin was let go this off-season to save 13.5 million and the Jaguars didn’t really replace him, which is surprising, as his replacement Tre Herndon struggled in his absence with a 55.4 PFF grade on 416 snaps and is their only realistic candidate to replace him. Herndon hasn’t been any better in the past either, as his mediocre PFF grade last season was actually a career best. He’ll almost definitely be no worse than their 3rd cornerback this season, with their only other options for the job being veteran journeyman Tevaughn Campbell, who is going into his age 30 season with a career best PFF grade for a season of 56.9, 2020 7th round pick Chris Claybrooks, who has struggled on 621 career snaps, and 6th round rookie Christian Braswell. 

Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams remain locked in as the starting every down cornerbacks in base packages, with the former being one of the best players in the league at his position. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell struggled to begin his career, with a 52.8 PFF grade through 8 games, but that improved to 72.3 from week 12 on and he continued improving into his second season in the league, finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked cornerback with a 82.1 grade. Campbell is inexperienced and a one-year wonder, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best players in the league at his position for years to come.

Darious Williams, meanwhile, was a free agent acquisition last off-season, coming over from the Rams on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. Williams has been a starter for three seasons dating back to his time with the Rams (35 starts), but he hasn’t been able to repeat the level of play he reached in 2020, when he received a 80.0 PFF grade on 824 snaps, following up that season with PFF grades of 65.3 and 61.4 over the past two seasons on snap counts of 924 and 944 respectively. Now going into his age 30 season with only one above average season on his resume, it’s unlikely he’ll ever bounce back to that level of play, but he has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter in 2023, even if he is starting to get up there in age.

Starting safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco both remain as well. Jenkins signed with the Jaguars on a 4-year, 35 contract two off-season ago and has started 31 games for the Jaguars in two seasons since, but he’s struggled overall with PFF grades of 56.9 and 57.3, failing to live up to the level he played at in his final two seasons with the Chargers, when he had PFF grades of 63.1 and 68.9 while starting another 31 games. The Jaguars restructured Jenkins contract this off-season, freeing up cap space, but making it more difficult to cut him long-term, so they clearly still believe in him and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled again in 2023.

Cisco was the better of the two safeties, with a 67.1 PFF grade in 15 starts. A third round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential on 247 snaps as a rookie, so it wasn’t really a surprise he continued his solid play in a larger role. Still only in his age 23 season, Cisco could easily still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, I would expect him to continue being at least a solid starter. The Jaguars also have a good reserve safety in veteran Andrew Wingard, who has made 22 starts of his own over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.8, 69.0, and 79.9 respectively, making him a very valuable backup option to have. Overall, this is a solid secondary, but Tre Herndon figures to be a liability as the #3 cornerback and Rayshawn Jenkins could continue struggling as a starting safety.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars are a young team who won 7 of their last 9 games last season to surprisingly finish in first place in their division and this season they’ll get talented receiver Calvin Ridley back from suspension, so some have high expectations for this team in 2023. However, there are reasons to expect them to not keep winning games at the rate in which they won games down the stretch last season. For one, while they were never as bad as their 2-6 record suggested, with a 0-6 record in one-score games and a +14 point differential during that stretch, they were also never as good as their 7-2 record suggested, with a +40 point differential and a 4-0 record in one-score games during that stretch. On top of that, the Jaguars are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury.

I would still expect the Jaguars to be better overall in 2023 than they were in 2022, with several young players legitimately seeming to turn a corner down the stretch last season, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who looks like one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league and now has a new wide receiver to throw to. However, I would pump the brakes on this team doing anything more than winning their underwhelming division, as I still think they’re a little short of being a true Super Bowl contender. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 9-8, 1st in AFC South