Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at New York Jets (7-7)

The Jaguars pulled off a huge comeback upset win over the Cowboys in overtime last week, but that loss might have come with a price, as now the Jaguars have to play on a short week after that overtime game, which has proven to be a close to impossible spot for teams to play well in, with teams going just 2-22 ATS against the spread on short rest after an overtime game. Making matters worse, the Jaguars have to go on the road outside of the division, which is also a tough spot for teams on short rest, unless they’re facing a significantly worse team, which is not the case this week against the Jets. Historically, non-divisional road underdogs cover at a 37.5% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest.

We’re not getting good line value with the Jets as 1.5-point favorites, as that’s right around where I have this line calculated, as the Jets are at home and have been the slightly better team this season, but the Jaguars have been playing significantly better in recent weeks, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence emerging in a big way midway through his second season in the league. However, that calculated line doesn’t take into account the significant disadvantage the Jaguars are at in this game and, even without getting any line value with them, the Jets are still worth a bet purely based on how bad of a spot the Jaguars are in. This isn’t worth a big bet, but I like the Jets this week.

New York Jets 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)

The Jaguars are in a good spot in this game, with the Cowboys likely to get caught looking forward to a much bigger game against the Eagles next week, but this line only favors the Cowboys by four points, so we’re not getting great line value with the Jaguars, who have lost by more than four points in seven of their eight losses. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, five points ahead of the 19th ranked Jaguars, even though the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games. I’m still taking the Jaguars, but this is a low confidence pick.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +4

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)

The Titans are 7-5, but their wins haven’t been that impressive. Their only win against a team that is .500 or better right now came against the Commanders, who are 7-5-1 now, but were just 1-4 when they were starting Carson Wentz against the Titans, and all of the Titans’ wins have been close, with several that could have gone either way. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

Meanwhile, the Titans’ five losses have come by a combined 67 points, leading to them having a -21 point differential, despite a positive turnover margin (+2) and a relatively easy schedule. Turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week, but schedule adjusted efficiency is and it takes into account strength of schedule and, in that metric, the Titans rank just 27th, about 5.5 points below average. Making matters worse, the Titans are very banged up right now, missing top wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, their two best edge defenders Denico Autry and Harold Landry, talented starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, and starting cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden.

As a result, I have the Titans about even in my roster rankings with the Jaguars, whose -14 point differential and 19th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency are both better than the Titans. Despite that, the Titans are favored by 3.5 points in this game, a bigger line than you might think, given that about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with about 1 in 6 being decided by exactly a field goal. The Titans are at home, but I have them just slightly favored to win this game on my calculated line, so we’re getting good enough value with the Jaguars at +3.5 for them to be worth betting.

Tennessee Titans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

This is another one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. My calculated line has the Lions just slightly favored to win this game, but it also has the Jaguars covering this 1-point spread, which is how close this one is for me. Making it even tougher, there also aren’t any situational trends affecting either side. I’m taking the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes because we’re technically getting some line value with them, but this 1-point spread doesn’t give us much room to work with and the most likely outcome of this game might be a push.

Detroit Lions 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 33

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +1

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)

The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +49 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about seven points above average. Also healthier now than they were earlier in the year, I consider the Ravens among the best teams in the league and a true Super Bowl contender, which isn’t the consensus opinion of them, so I think they’re a little underrated, even at 7-3.

The Jaguars have been competitive in most of their games this season, but all of their losses have come by more than four points, which would have covered this spread. They have a positive point differential at +11 and a positive schedule adjusted efficiency, about a point above average (13th in the NFL), but they are five points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overachieved their talent level and could easily regress going forward. The Ravens should be able to win this game with relative ease and my calculated line has them favored by a full touchdown, so they’re worth a bet here at 3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3, so I am increasing the confidence of this bet.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)

Despite their 3-6 record, the Jaguars have a positive point differential at +21 and rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average. That’s in large part due to all six of their losses being decided by eight points or fewer. The Jaguars are 9.5-point underdogs this week in Kansas City, which might seem high, given that the Jaguars have yet to be blown out, but the Jaguars rank four points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overperformed their talent level and are likely to regress going forward, and the Jaguars also haven’t played a game this tough yet.

Even after an underwhelming performance against the Titans last week, the Chiefs are still among the best teams in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Chiefs rank 3rd, about eight points above average, led by an offense that leads the league in schedule adjusted efficiency by a wide margin, and my roster rankings support that, with the Chiefs about ten points above average. Overall, my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 12, suggesting that we’re getting a little bit of line value with them as 9.5-point favorites. That’s not enough to bet on them though, especially with the Chiefs in a potential look ahead spot, with a matchup against the Chargers on deck after facing a 3-6 Jaguars team this week. I’m still taking the Chiefs, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Low

Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

The Jaguars are just 2-6, but they actually have a positive point differential at +14, as all six of their losses have come by eight points or fewer, with an average margin of 6.3 points per game, while their two wins have come by margins of 24 and 28. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Jaguars rank 7th in the NFL, about 3.5 points about average and, while my roster rankings have them 5.5 points below average, they’re still significantly better than their record would suggest, overachieving their talent level by a significant amount.

The Raiders also have just two wins and have also played better than that, with four of their five losses coming by six points or fewer, but their -11 point differential is still significantly behind the Jaguars, while their 18th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency is 4 points behind the Jaguars. The Raiders have the 3.5 point edge in my roster rankings, as they are underachieving their talent level and the Jaguars are overachieving, but, overall, I have the Jaguars as the slightly better of these two teams. Given that this game is in Jacksonville, my calculated line has them favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value with them as 2-point home underdogs. I wish we were getting a full field goal with them, but they’re still bettable at +2, and on the money line.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Las Vegas Raiders 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (2-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) in London

Normally the rule of thumb in London games is to pick the favorite, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation in a London game, covering the spread at a 63.4% rate all-time. In this case, that would be the Jaguars, who are favored by 2.5 points, but we aren’t getting much line value with them, as my calculated line is Jacksonville -2. I am still taking the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes because they are slight favorites and have familiarity with playing in London more than any franchise, but there’s not nearly enough here for the Jaguars to be worth betting.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -2.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)

The Giants have a 5-1 record, while the Jaguars are just 2-4, but the Jaguars actually have the better point differential between these two teams (+24 vs. +14). While all of the Giants’ wins have come by just one score, the Jaguars’ wins have come by 24 and 28, while their losses have all come by one score. Big blowout wins tend to be much more predictive of future success than close wins and the gap between these two teams is even more pronounced if you look at schedule adjusted efficiency, where the 9th ranked Jaguars have a 5.5-point edge over the 23rd ranked Giants. My roster rankings have these two teams closer together than schedule adjusted efficiency, but, any way you look at it, the Jaguars are the slightly better team, despite not having nearly as good of a record.

Unfortunately, the odds makers are still not giving the Giants any respect, despite their record, so we’re not getting any line value with the Jaguars, who are favored by a full field goal at home, even being three games worse than the Giants in the standings. The Jaguars are in a better spot, as the Giants are coming off of a big home upset win over the Ravens last week, which tends to be a situation in which teams are flat the following week, covering the spread at just a 41.3% rate after a home upset win as underdogs of 5 points or more. However, that isn’t enough for the Jaguars to be worth betting without getting any real line value, so this is only a low confidence pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -3

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)

The Jaguars have a significantly better point differential than the Colts (+31 vs. -25) and won the first matchup between these two teams earlier this season in convincing fashion (24-0), but a lot of the gap between these two teams has been because of turnovers, which are not that predictive week-to-week. On the season, the Colts are -6 in turnover margin, as opposed to +1 for the Jaguars, and the Jaguars won the turnover battle in the first matchup by 3. That game was also in Jacksonville and the Colts were missing their two best wide receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, who will be active for this rematch in Indianapolis.

My roster rankings have these two teams about even, which unfortunately doesn’t give us any line value, with the Colts being favored by 2 points at home, about where my calculated line would be. I am taking the Colts for pick ‘em purposes for now, just because I think the home team winning by a field goal is the most likely outcome, but there is some uncertainty over the status of Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor, who missed last week and was limited in practice this week. I am expecting him to play, but, if he doesn’t, I would change this pick to the Jaguars, for a no confidence pick either way.

Update: Taylor is out, so I am changing to a no confidence pick on the Jaguars instead.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2

Confidence: None