Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

Teams who have blowout wins on Monday Night Football tend to carry that over into the following week. Teams are 29-13 ATS off of a win by 21 or more points on Monday Night Football since 2002. The Broncos didn’t win by 21+ last week, because of a late fumble that immediately led to an Oakland touchdown and shrunk the margin from 23 to 16. However, they completely dominated the Raiders in a way even worse than the final score would suggest.

The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They might not have won by 21 or more, but they certainly dominated in a way that could be carried over into this game.

I also think this is a very poor matchup for the Eagles. Their defense has no chance of stopping Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos have 78 first downs and 13 punts this season, while the Eagles have allowed 77 first downs and forced 9 punts. There’s a very good chance that the Broncos score on almost every possession and surpass 40 points in this one. The Eagles’ offense, meanwhile, might not be able to execute their game plan as they’d like because of the altitude in Denver. They won’t be used to the thinner air and that could easily hurt their ability to run a no huddle, hurry up offense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because there’s no line value. The Broncos are favored by 11 points here which is a lot considering the Eagles aren’t a terrible team or anything. This line was also a lot lower last week before the Broncos blew out the Raiders and the Eagles lost at home to Kansas City. However, the Broncos should be the right side. They are also my Survivor Pick this week.

Denver Broncos 38 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Denver -11

Confidence: Low

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