Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 12

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 265 31 16 32 19 4 0 80.65%
2 GB 212 36 17 33 8 3 2 79.74%
3 DEN 230 37 11 49 11 6 0 77.62%
4 KC 210 27 15 42 10 2 0 77.45%
5 NE 232 32 25 40 8 4 0 77.42%
6 PIT 259 29 20 45 14 5 0 77.42%
7 IND 252 34 22 39 16 6 1 77.30%
8 CHI 224 25 10 36 20 10 0 76.62%
9 SEA 211 27 21 37 9 5 1 76.53%
10 BAL 218 28 22 35 14 6 0 76.16%
11 DAL 216 28 20 36 18 2 1 76.01%
12 MIA 222 23 25 35 16 8 0 74.47%
13 SD 195 24 17 49 9 3 0 73.74%
14 ATL 207 25 18 45 15 6 1 73.19%
15 ARZ 198 23 18 55 7 1 0 73.18%
16 WAS 207 23 18 44 20 4 0 72.78%
17 SF 200 20 23 45 12 5 0 72.13%
18 NYG 210 25 10 52 21 9 0 71.87%
19 CAR 228 22 22 54 19 3 0 71.84%
20 PHI 223 26 19 50 25 4 0 71.76%
21 CIN 191 24 23 46 14 3 0 71.43%
22 HOU 196 21 22 49 15 3 0 70.92%
23 CLE 203 23 19 58 10 8 0 70.40%
24 TB 178 20 15 43 20 5 1 70.21%
25 DET 183 19 24 46 13 4 0 69.90%
26 STL 185 18 18 50 16 4 0 69.76%
27 NYJ 190 18 19 50 18 6 0 69.10%
28 TEN 166 19 14 53 14 4 2 68.01%
29 MIN 181 16 22 54 13 4 0 67.93%
30 JAX 182 18 15 57 22 6 0 66.67%
31 BUF 169 18 25 55 14 6 2 64.71%
32 OAK 149 16 13 64 20 2 0 62.50%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 MIA 175 18 20 41 19 8 1 68.44%
2 BUF 204 19 22 54 21 3 0 69.04%
3 ARZ 190 19 15 52 20 5 0 69.44%
4 DET 186 16 15 54 14 4 1 69.66%
5 DEN 201 24 20 59 12 4 1 70.09%
6 CLE 216 21 20 56 18 6 1 70.12%
7 PHI 209 27 17 59 16 6 0 70.66%
8 BAL 191 20 18 46 15 5 1 71.28%
9 KC 196 16 21 46 8 10 0 71.38%
10 WAS 186 26 15 55 9 3 0 72.11%
11 SF 189 23 10 45 21 5 0 72.35%
12 DAL 183 23 11 44 17 6 0 72.54%
13 MIN 196 25 15 50 14 4 0 72.70%
14 NYJ 185 29 18 54 7 1 0 72.79%
15 JAX 205 26 21 48 11 5 1 72.87%
16 HOU 221 24 15 48 23 5 0 72.92%
17 NE 216 23 20 38 19 11 0 73.09%
18 SD 189 23 14 46 10 7 1 73.10%
19 SEA 194 22 17 44 14 3 1 73.22%
20 PIT 217 27 24 48 14 1 1 73.49%
21 IND 212 30 11 51 15 7 0 74.23%
22 OAK 213 27 24 47 8 4 0 74.30%
23 STL 204 23 17 43 14 4 0 74.43%
24 NYG 211 28 21 40 18 3 0 74.45%
25 ATL 222 27 25 39 18 1 0 75.00%
26 CIN 236 23 23 41 15 6 1 75.07%
27 CHI 197 29 26 29 14 4 0 75.59%
28 TB 229 28 28 38 15 1 0 75.81%
29 GB 231 24 14 34 22 11 0 75.89%
30 CAR 240 33 21 45 17 3 0 76.04%
31 TEN 238 26 21 44 12 4 0 76.52%
32 NO 210 26 19 40 10 1 1 76.87%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.52%
2 KC 6.07%
3 MIA 6.03%
4 BAL 4.88%
5 NE 4.33%
6 PIT 3.93%
7 GB 3.85%
8 NO 3.78%
9 ARZ 3.74%
10 DAL 3.48%
11 SEA 3.31%
12 IND 3.06%
13 PHI 1.10%
14 CHI 1.03%
15 WAS 0.68%
16 SD 0.63%
17 CLE 0.29%
18 DET 0.24%
19 SF -0.22%
20 ATL -1.81%
21 HOU -2.00%
22 NYG -2.59%
23 CIN -3.64%
24 NYJ -3.69%
25 CAR -4.21%
26 BUF -4.33%
27 STL -4.67%
28 MIN -4.77%
29 TB -5.60%
30 JAX -6.20%
31 TEN -8.51%
32 OAK -11.80%

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