Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
This is a tough one because I don’t really have any significant trends for either side. The Browns are the better team and we’re probably getting some line value with them as mere 3.5 point favorites, especially with Arian Foster out. The Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.53% rate, as opposed to 69.36% for their opponents, a differential of 1.17%, while the Texans rank 24th, moving the chains at a 70.19% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of -3.14%.
However, I’m worried about taking the Browns after they’ve had 10 days to listen to the media blow smoke in their ass after their win over Cincinnati. While they’re better than the Texans, they’re still not as good as their record so that could be very dangerous for them. The public is also on the Browns and hate taking a publicly backed side unless I have good reason as the odds makers always make money in the long run. The fact that this line is 3.5 instead of 3 also scares me as this could easily be a field goal game. I’m still taking the Browns, but I’m not confident at all.
Cleveland Browns 17 Houston Texans 13
Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5