Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of 0.29%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.81%. However, this isn’t normal homefield advantage as Matt Ryan is 31-20 ATS at home in his career dating back to 2008. I’m taking the Falcons, but I’m not confident at all.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Cleveland Browns 20
Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3