Carolina Panthers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-7-1)
The Panthers are on a 4-game losing streak after a 6-2 start, but they’ve actually won the first down rate battle in each of their last 3 games. The Panthers lost by 1 in Detroit, in a game in which they missed a field goal, an extra point, and a 2-point conversation late when they didn’t trust their kicking unit to tie the game. They lost by a field goal at home to the Seahawks, but outgained the Seahawks by 1.9 yards per play in a game in which the Panthers missed another field goal, threw a red zone interception, failed on a 4th down, and allowed the Seahawks to go 2 for 2 on 4th downs. And then they lost by 3 in Tampa Bay in a game in which they outgained the Buccaneers by 1.5 yards per play, but lost the turnover battle by 3. If not for a couple plays, they could have easily won any of those games, but instead they are 6-6 and going to Cleveland desperately in need of a win.
Even though they’ve been better than the final scores have suggested recently, I’m not so sure they’re going to get that win this week. The Browns have been better defensively since getting stud linebacker Joe Schobert back from injury and they’ve been better offensively since plugging running back Nick Chubb into the lineup and getting rid of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. They lost by 16 in Houston last week, but were more competitive than the final score suggested, as they actually won the first down rate battle by 7.17%, losing the game primarily because of a -4 turnover margin and a return touchdown by the Texans. Even with the Browns banged up, with top cornerback Denzel Ward and possibly top defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi out with injury, I still have this line calculated at even.
That’s not a ton of line value, but it suggests the Browns should be the pick at +1.5. The Browns are also in a much better spot, as the Panthers have to turn around and play an even tougher game against the Saints next week. Road favorites are 22-44 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs and the Panthers are 6.5-point home underdogs on the early line. Even though the Panthers are only road favorites of a point and a half here in Cleveland, the logic still stands and teams are 34-63 ATS in general since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 points or more. There is not quite enough here for the Browns to be worth betting against the spread given the players who are injured, but they should be the right side in this one.
Cleveland Browns 26 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +1.5