Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)
The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 63.74% rate, as opposed to 73.35% for their opponents, a differential of -9.61%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 7th, moving the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%.
I’m not confident in the Chiefs though, as they aren’t in a great spot either. They have a much tougher game in Pittsburgh next week which could serve as a playoff tiebreaker. Teams are just 99-114 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. On top of that, this is just the 17th time that a team has been favored by double digits off of 3 straight losses in the past 25 years. Only three teams have covered in that spot over that time period, going 3-12-1 ATS. I’m going with the Chiefs to be the 4th, but I’m not confident at all.
Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10