Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)
The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading it does make sense. That line movement is a massive overreaction to what happened last week. Sure, the Cowboys won in Philadelphia, but that doesn’t erase the fact that they got blown out at home by those same Eagles in Dallas on Thanksgiving. They aren’t as bad as they looked on Thanksgiving, but they aren’t as good as they looked last week. It’s important to remember that.
On the season, the Cowboys rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.58% rate, as opposed to 74.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.93%. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 75.79% rate, as opposed to 70.07% for their opponents, a differential of 5.72%. This line suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all. We’re getting significant line value with the Cowboys before you even get into the fact that they are 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010, a big part of the reason why they lost to Philadelphia here 3 weeks ago. A similar thing could happen this week only the Colts are a better opponent than the Eagles.
The Cowboys are in a good spot with only a trip to Washington left on the schedule. They’ll almost certainly be significant road favorites in Washington next week. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, and 25-10 ATS before being 7+ road favorites. However, the Colts are in an equally good spot with a trip to Tennessee on deck. On top of that, the Cowboys are also 14-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter, including 6-14 ATS at home and 5-13 ATS as home favorites. In a tough week for picks, the Colts are my Pick of the Week.
Indianapolis Colts 27 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +135
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3
Confidence: Pick of the Week