Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Denver Broncos (6-0)
Both the Packers and Broncos enter this one undefeated. The only other time since 1989 when two undefeated teams met this late in the season was week 9 of 2007, when the Patriots (who eventually went 16-0) visited the Indianapolis Colts. Like in that game, the home team is the underdog in this one, as the Patriots were 4.5 point road favorites in 2007 (winning by 4), and the Packers are 3 point favorites in Denver this year. That game and this one are the only instances since 1989 where 6-0 or better team is the underdog at home.
The Broncos deserve to be home underdogs though, as they’re a significantly inferior team to the Packers. The Broncos haven’t played a very tough schedule (Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, Cleveland) and have still only won one game by more than a touchdown and have lost the rate of moving the chains battle in 3 of 6 games. On the season, they’re actually slightly in the negative in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a 6-0 record, and rank 14th in that statistic. The Packers haven’t had a tough schedule either (Chicago, Seattle, Kansas City, San Francisco, St. Louis, San Diego), but they rank 6th in that aforementioned statistic. They’re solid on both sides of the ball, while the Broncos have a great defense, but a horrible offense.
Given that the Packers are legitimate field goal favorites here on the road in Denver, they’re in a great spot coming off of their bye. Favorites of 3+ are 41-13 ATS off of a bye since 2002. The Broncos are coming off of a bye as well, but that tends to benefit the better team more and the Packers are the better team here. I like their chances of remaining undefeated and covering this spread. I’m concerned about all of the public action coming in on Green Bay, but I’m still comfortable putting money on them.
Green Bay Packers 24 Denver Broncos 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3