Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)

The Packers are 4-8, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last in efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 30th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in the NFL in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about two points below average.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-6 with a -44 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Given that, I am tempted to go against them on the road this week in Chicago as 3.5-point favorites, a bigger number than you might realize, with 1 in 4 games being decided by a field goal or less, including 1 in 6 by exactly a field goal.

However, the Bears are just too banged up to take this week unless we were getting a bigger number. They’ll get Justin Fields back from a one-game absence this week and he elevates their offense significantly, but he’ll be missing his top wide receiver Darnell Mooney for the first time this season, while their defense, which has been horrendous since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, will be without their two starting safeties Jaquan Brisker and Eddie Jackson due to injury, a big absence as they were two of their better players that side of the ball. I can’t take the Packers with any confidence, but they still seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes against a skeleton crew Bears team.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

The Packers are 4-7, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 29th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 2.5 points below average, and they’ve been worse in recent weeks, since losing a pair of key defenders, Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell, for an extended period of time.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Despite that, the Packers are only 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia, where the Eagles have won by more than a touchdown in four of their five home games.

The Eagles aren’t quite as good as their 9-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 5.5 points above average, which is predictive, and they are the top team in my roster rankings, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. Given that, this line is way too low, as my calculated line favors the Eagles by 11, even before taking into account Aaron Rodgers’ relative struggles on the road. The Packers seem to be a little overrated based on the name value of their quarterback, while the Eagles are getting great value at -6.5. This is my top pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Green Bay Packers 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)

In ordinary circumstances, I would like the Packers a lot this week. The Packers are a disappointing 4-6 and their 21st ranked schedule adjusted efficiency suggests they’ve played at about the level their record would suggest, but it hasn’t helped that they’ve only had four games at home, with their other six games, including a neutral site game, played away from Lambeau. The Packers routinely have among the biggest home/road splits in the league, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers’ having a much bigger home/road split in terms of QB rating than the average quarterback, and this year isn’t an exception, as they are 3-1 with a +6 point differential in their true home games, as opposed to 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau.

The Packers are just 2-2 ATS at home this year, but that’s largely due to them being overrated to begin the year, which is not the case anymore now that they are 4-6, and if you look at Rodgers’ entire career, the Packers are 48-21 ATS in Lambeau in games that Rodgers starts and finishes, which is very encouraging for their chances of covering the spread against the Titans this week. Putting the Packers at even more of an advantage is the fact that they’re hosting this game on a short week, against a non-divisional opponent who isn’t familiar with them, a very tough situation for a road team, with non-divisional road underdogs covering at just a 37.1% rate all-time on Thursday Night Football.

It might be surprising to see the Packers favored by a full field goal at home over the Titans, considering the Titans are two and a half games better in the standings, but, in addition to the Packers having a huge homefield advantage on a short week, the Titans also haven’t played as well as their record would suggest, with all of their wins coming against teams that are .500 or worse and their average margin of victory being just 6 points per game. That’s despite the fact that the Titans have benefitted from a +3 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive week-to-week, the Titans rank just 29th, about 3.5 points behind the Packers.

My roster rankings have a smaller gap between these two teams, but the Packers are still clearly the better team in that aspect as well. The Packers are far from healthy, missing two of their most important defensive players, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and edge defender Rashan Gary, but the Titans aren’t healthy either, missing a pair of starting offensive linemen Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones, a pair of key edge defenders Bud Dupree and Harold Landry, talented starting safety Amani Hooker, and top linebacker Zach Cunningham. Overall, I have the Packers two points better than the Titans which, when combined with their significant homefield advantage, gives us significant line value with the Packers at just -3.

However, there is one significant problem with the Packers this week, which is that they are playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-21 ATS all-time. That makes sense, as teams are exhausted after overtime games and understandably find it tough to get up for another game just a few days later. There are a lot of reasons to take the Packers, but playing on a short week after an overtime game makes them unbettable. In fact, I am actually going to take the Titans for pick ‘em purposes, though this is a no confidence pick and I might change to the Packers depending on the final injury report. 

For the Packers, their two starting offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins and their best wide receiver Randall Cobb are all questionable, while stud Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons is questionable as well. If all of the questionable Packers play and Simmons doesn’t, that would cause me to change my pick, but this is a no confidence pick either way, with both sides having good arguments for and against them. A push is also a strong possibility, given how many games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Green Bay Packers 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Packers have been close to an automatic bet at home with Aaron Rodgers in his career, going 47-21 ATS in games he starts and finishes, including 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, as he is this week, by 4.5 points against the Dallas Cowboys. On the other hand, this line makes sense even with the Packers’ significant homefield advantage and the Cowboys are also in a great spot as big road favorites after a bye, with road favorites of more than a field goal covering at a 63.3% rate all-time after a bye.

Coming into the season, I was expecting the Packers to regress. The Packers went 13-4 last season, but finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

On offense, the Packers have fallen from 4th to 16th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and, while their defense has remained middle of the pack, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, after ranking 17th last season, they’re likely is likely to fall off significantly on that side of the ball going forward, due to the long-term absence of two of their best defensive players, De’vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary, who are among the best players in the league at their respective positions. 

The Packers also have continued to struggle on special teams, ranking 30th in special teams efficiency, after ranking dead last a year ago and, all in all, the Packers are already 3-6 and rank just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 2.5 points below average, which could easily get worse going forward, as injuries pile up. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 4.5 points above average, even though quarterback Dak Prescott missed five and a half games with injury, which he has since returned from.

Even factoring in five points for homefield advantage for the Packers, which is several points more than the standard, my calculated line is still Dallas -4, which is right around where this line is, at Dallas -4.5 in reality. In normal circumstances, I would probably take the Packers for a no confidence pick, but the Cowboys do have a strong trend on their side so I am going to take them for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting on, but, even with the Packers’ recent home dominance, no one should be surprised if the well-rested and relatively healthy Cowboys come into Green Bay and beat this mediocre and banged up Packers team relatively easily.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4.5

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6)

The Packers have started 3-5, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 16th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 31st. All in all, the Packers rank just 20th in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 1.5 points below average, and my roster rankings only have them slightly higher, about a half point above average. Despite the big name at quarterback, this team isn’t much more than a slightly above average team any way you look at it.

The Packers get to face the one-win Lions this week, but this isn’t as easy of a matchup as it seems, as the Lions are just 4.5 points behind them in my roster rankings and 2.5 points behind in schedule adjusted efficiency, with four of the Lions’ six losses coming by four points or fewer. Making matters worse, the Packers are on the road and they just haven’t had the same success away from Lambeau in Aaron Rodgers career, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers having a 10 point drop in QB rating on the road in his career, well above average. My calculated line has the Packers favored by one and, while they should still be favored to win this game, they could easily lose and, even if they don’t, about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, so we’re getting good line value with the Lions at +3.5. They’re bettable at that number.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 30

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)

The Packers have started 3-4, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 18th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 16th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 28th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about two points below average, and my roster rankings only have them slightly higher, about one point above average. Despite the big name at quarterback, this team isn’t much more than a slightly above average team any way you look at it.

Making matters worse, now the Packers have to go on the road to face arguably the best team in the league, the Buffalo Bills, who rank first in my roster rankings and in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 12.5 points and 12 points above average respectively. This will be especially tough for the Packers because they tend to struggle away from home, in large part due to Aaron Rodgers having a 10 point drop off in QB rating on the road in his career, significantly above average. This line is 11, which is high, but I don’t think it’s quite high enough, with my calculated line at Buffalo -15.5. If that seems high, consider that 15 of the Bills’ last 17 wins have come by 12 points or more, with an average margin of victory over those 17 wins of 21.8 points per game, dating back to the start of last season. There isn’t quite enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 31 Green Bay Packers 16

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -11

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Washington Commanders (2-4)

The Packers are a disappointing 3-3, but that’s not all that surprising. They won 13 games a year ago, but they finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 21st in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 14th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 30th. 

All in all, the Packers rank just 20th in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 1.5 points below average, and my roster rankings tell a similar story, with the Packers about a half point below average. Last week’s performance was especially concerning, as they were largely uncompetitive against the Jets, losing by a final score of 27-10 and losing the first down rate and yards per play battles by 5.09% and 1.22 respectively, despite being at home, where they had previously won 15 straight regular season games and where they had previously been 47-20 ATS in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers throughout his career.

The Packers still seem to be overrated though, favored by 5 points on the road in Washington, with this line barely moving from the early line a week ago. Washington did lose starting quarterback Carson Wentz for an extended period of time with injury, but backup Taylor Heinicke is unlikely to be a significant downgrade. The Commanders are still an underwhelming team that ranks 25th in overall efficiency, but they are only three points behind the Packers in that metric and about four points behind the Packers in my roster rankings, so this line is too high.

The Packers also struggle more than most teams do away from home, due to their dominant homefield advantage, with Aaron Rodgers’ QB rating dropping by 10 points on the road in his career, well above the average drop off for a quarterback on the road. My calculated line favors the Packers by just a point and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if they lost this game outright, in part because they are in a bad spot, with a much tougher game against the Bills on deck next week. 

Road favorites cover at just a 35.7% rate before facing an opponent with a winning percentage that is 50%+ higher than their current opponent and facing the 5-1 Bills after facing the 2-4 Commanders would qualify. Even if Washington can’t pull the upset, we have a good amount of points to work with, with about 35% of games being decided by 5 points or less, so I’m confident in Washington at +5. This is my top pick this week.

Washington Commanders 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +185

Pick against the spread: Washington +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

New York Jets (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

I was hoping we would get some value with the Packers this week, back at home after a disappointing performance in London against the Giants last week. In Aaron Rodgers’ career, the Packers have had a significant homefield advantage, going 47-20 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers, with Rodgers having a QB rating that is 10 points better at home, significantly higher than the average differential for a quarterback. Unfortunately, despite the Packers’ loss last week and the Jets’ upset win over the Dolphins, this line has barely moved from a week ago, with the Packers still favored by 7.5 points, after being favored by 9 on the early line last week, a pretty insignificant difference. 

That’s probably because the Jets are still underrated, as their offense is significantly better than earlier this year with Zach Wilson and Duane Brown back from injury, while their defense (8th) and special teams (2nd) both rank well above average in efficiency. Even with extra homefield advantage taken into account, my calculated line only has the Packers favored by a touchdown, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Jets, although not nearly enough to be confident picking them.

Green Bay Packers 27 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

New York Giants (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. London

The Giants are 3-1, but they haven’t been overly impressive, with all of their wins being close and their schedule being one of the easiest in the league thus far. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Giants rank just 24th, suggesting their record is largely the result of their level of competition. This week, the Giants’ level of competition jumps significantly, with a matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who are also 3-1, but have been more impressive in doing so, ranking 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while also holding a significant edge in my roster rankings. This is a neutral site game in London, but the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage in international games, with favorites covering at 65% rate all-time. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Packers, as the public and oddsmakers don’t believe in the Giants either, leading to the Packers being favored by 8 points on a neutral field. My roster rankings give the Packers a 10-point edge, so we’re getting some line value with them even at -8, but I’m not sure it’s quite enough for them to be worth betting, even in a good spot. That would change if Leonard Williams missed another game for the Giants, but it seems like he’s more likely than not to return from a 2-game absence this week, which would be a big re-addition for a struggling Giants defense. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I would change my mind if Williams didn’t play.

Update: Williams is out, so I am increasing the confidence on this game.

Green Bay Packers 26 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Patriots will play this game with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer under center instead of Mac Jones, which puts them at a distinct disadvantage, while the Packers have gotten back offensive linemen David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Jon Runyan and wide receivers Allen Lazard and Christian Watson, all of whom missed time early this season and have since returned, giving them a much better supporting cast around Aaron Rodgers. They didn’t score a lot in Tampa Bay last week, but they’re even healthier this week and the Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in the league, so it wasn’t that bad that the Packers didn’t perform that well offensively. Even with that game included, the Packers still rank a solid 11th in offensive efficiency on the season, despite all of their injuries. Led by that offense, the Packers rank 12th in overall efficiency, as opposed to the Patriots, who rank just 23rd, even with Mac Jones healthy.

With the Packers being the significantly healthier and better team team, they are favorites of 9.5 points in this game, which would be around the correct line, if not for the fact that the Packers have had an incredible homefield advantage in recent years, going 47-19 ATS in the regular season at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers. Because of that, this line should be set even higher. There isn’t quite enough here for the Packers to be worth betting with this line already being so high, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Green Bay Packers 24 New England Patriots 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: Low