Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5)
The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-61 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye. That could definitely happen to the Texans, who are 4 point favorites here against the Titans.
This line is also probably too high, as the Titans rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Texans rank 18th. The Titans are missing quarterback Marcus Mariota and cornerback Perrish Cox for the 2nd straight game, but the Texans aren’t in a great situation injury wise either. Defensive starters Kareem Jackson and Benardrick McKinney remain out, while the Texans were dealt a crippling blow last week when Arian Foster tore his Achilles and went down for the season. I’m not confident in the Titans, but I’m taking them here.
Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4