Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
Aaron Rodgers is 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career, as he typically responds well to adversity, but, now having lost 3 straight, public confidence in Rodgers is much lower than normal. This line has gone from favoring the Packers by a field goal in Minnesota to even, from the early line last week to now, a pretty significant line movement considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, but the public isn’t really on the Packers, as the action is pretty split.
Typically, I love fading significant line movements like that, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I too am having a hard time being confident in the Packers. I wasn’t too worried about the Packers after their first two losses, because they were on the road in tough places to win (Denver and Carolina), but last week they lost at home for the first time since the 2013 post-season and they did it as huge home favorites against a Detroit team that is one of the worst teams in the league. They still rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their offense (XX) just simply isn’t the same without injured top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season.
I ultimately do expect the Packers to turn it around and I do think last week’s loss was a fluke, but this is a tough spot for them to turn it around. The Vikings are a legitimate team, one that ranks 9th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, and the Packers are not the same team on the road. There’s definitely an argument to be made that we’re still getting some line value with the Vikings. They’ve faced a very easy schedule and the Packers are the toughest opponent they’ve faced this season, but neither team has beaten anyone better than Seattle or San Diego. The Packers also have to play again in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Fortunately, they’re not favored here, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but they’re a point away from being favored, so it’s worth bringing up. As much as I hate going against Rodgers off of a loss and as much as I hate not fading a significant line movement, I have to go with the Vikings for a no confidence pick this week.
Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23
Pick against the spread: Minnesota PK