Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)
This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The line movement isn’t a surprise, considering the Falcons got clobbered in Carolina last week, 38-0, but the Panthers are arguably the best team in the NFL, far better than the Jaguars. Plus, teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Falcons could easily be all 3.
The Jaguars are coming off of a huge victory, 51-16 over the Colts, also a big part of the reason why the line moved, but they still rank just 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 17th for the Falcons, suggesting this line is too low at 3, especially with the Jaguars missing running back TJ Yeldon and defensive lineman Ryan Davis. The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons have to turn around and play the Panthers again next week, this time at home, a game in which the early line has them as 6.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 23-56 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6+. Atlanta’s the pick though.
Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Atlanta Falcons 23
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3