Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-0)
This line was as high as 5 earlier this week, but a ton of sharp action on the underdog Raiders drove the line down quickly and now it’s at 3. We’ve lost a lot of line value. That being said, I’m still on the Raiders and I think a lot of sharp bettor still are as well. The Ravens are 3-0, but Oakland is a much tougher opponent than Buffalo, Cleveland, or Jacksonville. On top of that, despite the easy early schedule, the Ravens only have a +12 point differential and could have easily lost to either Cleveland or Jacksonville. Their defense has been good, but their offense has struggled both through the air and on the ground and lacks any standout skill position players.
The Ravens get edge rusher Elvis Dumervil back from injury this week, but they’re expected to be without rookie left tackle Ronnie Stanley. The Raiders are without right tackle Austin Howard, but overall have the much more talented roster. I had the Raiders as a 10 win team coming into the season and the Ravens as an 8 win team and I haven’t seen much from either team to suggest I overrated or underrated either team. I wouldn’t put money on this line at 3, but the money line at +140 isn’t a bad play. This game should be much closer to a pick ‘em.
Oakland Raiders 17 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +140
Pick against the spread: Oakland +3