Los Angeles Rams (4-9) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1)
The Rams finally parted ways with head coach Jeff Fisher after last week’s embarrassing 42-14 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Fisher did absolutely nothing to improve the team in his almost 5 years on the job, so it was a long overdue move, but the timing could not be worse as now interim head coach John Fassel has to prepare a gameplan on a short week for the Seattle Seahawks, who host them on Thursday Night Football this week. The Rams have had success against the Seahawks in recent years, but Seattle is still one of the toughest places in the NFL to play, so Fassel’s first game couldn’t be tougher. Making matters worse, the Seahawks are actually in a great spot this week for a couple of reasons.
For one, they were embarrassed last week in Green Bay, more so than the Rams actually. The Rams were 6.5 point home underdogs against an Atlanta team that’s one of the best in the NFL. They were supposed to lose and lose big. The Seahawks, however, lost by 28 in Green Bay as 3 point road favorites, their first loss by more than 10 points in the Russell Wilson era. Teams are 94-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more, as teams tend to bounce back from embarrassing losses. The Seahawks have a great chance to bounce back in a big way this week, especially since Russell Wilson is 14-6-1 ATS in his career off a loss and the Seahawks are 33-11-1 ATS in games 9-16 of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011).
The second reason is because the Seahawks figure to be big home favorites again next week against the Cardinals and teams tend to take care of business as big favorites before being big favorites again. Since 2012, favorites of 6 or more are 94-52 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more again the following week. It’s tough to stomach putting money on the Seahawks with this line jumping to 15 in the wake of the Rams’ loss and Jeff Fisher being fired, but the Seahawks should win pretty easily and they are definitely the right side in pick ‘em leagues.
Seattle Seahawks 27 Los Angeles Rams 6
Pick against the spread: Seattle -15