Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)
Much like many Ravens teams in recent memory, this Ravens team has a great defense, but an underwhelming offense. They enter this game 30th in first down rate, but 3rd in first down rate allowed and 15th in first down rate differential. The Eagles enter this game 26th in first down rate differential and very banged up on the offensive line, so the Ravens are definitely the better team here, but, with the line being 6, Philadelphia becomes a very appealing bet here because of the type of team Baltimore is. The Ravens have won just 3 of 12 games by more than 6 points in the past 2 seasons and are also without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, a big blow to this defense. Even though the Ravens are 15th in first down rate differential and the Eagles are 26th, there’s a smaller gap between 15th and 26th than there is between 8th and 15th, so these two teams are closer than that suggests.
The Ravens are also in a tough spot with a huge divisional clash with the Steelers on deck, a game in which the Ravens figure to be at least 6 point underdogs in Pittsburgh. Favorites of 6 or more are just 51-87 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 6 or more. With that huge game on deck, the Ravens could easily overlook the Eagles, who could pull off the win in a trap game. Even if they don’t, we’re getting 6 points with them and this should be another close game for the Ravens. If you can get the full 6, it’s worth a bet.
Baltimore Ravens 16 Philadelphia Eagles 13
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +6