Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills: 2023 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)

Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to bet on the home team as long as they are significantly better, as it’s very tough for inferior teams to travel to face an unfamiliar opponent on a short week. As a result, non-divisional home favorites of 3+ are 29-16 ATS on Thursdays, as long as both teams are on short rest. The Bills are only a half game better than the Buccaneers in the standings, but that trend applies here, as they have a significantly better point differential (+80 vs. -1) and rank 4th in DVOA, while the Buccaneers rank 20th. We’re not getting significant line value with the Bills as 8.5-point home favorites, as that is right where I have this line calculated, but the Bills are worth betting purely based on that aforementioned trend, with that trend increasing to 17-6 ATS for non-divisional favorites of more than a touchdown. This isn’t a big bet, but I like the Bills a good amount this week.

Buffalo Bills 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Buccaneers’ franchise changed when they shockingly signed Tom Brady away from the Patriots in free agency, ending Brady’s legendary two decade long run in New England. It was a risky move because of Brady’s age (going into his age 43 season at that point), but the Buccaneers felt their up and coming roster was legitimately a quarterback away from contending for a Super Bowl and that if Brady continued holding off father time, he could be that quarterback to take them all the way, as he did six times prior with the Patriots. The gamble paid off immediately, as Brady led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory in just his first season with the team in 2020. 

With Brady aging, the Buccaneers got aggressive to keep their limited Super Bowl window open, borrowing significant amounts of future cap space in order to bring back every starter on offense and defense from their Super Bowl team, despite several key players hitting free agency. The Buccaneers didn’t return to the Super Bowl the following season, but were one of the best teams in the league in the regular season with a 13-4 record and, considering they barely lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams in the post-season, they legitimately could have been a couple plays away from being the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in two decades.

The Buccaneers weren’t quite able to repeat the feat and bring back everyone the following off-season, but they still entered the 2022 season with much of their 2020 core intact. However, the result was not what they wanted. The few players they allowed to leave were badly missed,  they were one of the most injury plagued teams in the season, with the 5th most adjusted games lost in the league, and Tom Brady finally started to show signs of his age in what was his age 45 season in 2022, completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 6.40 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, his 3rd lowest QB rating (90.7) in the previous 14 seasons and the lowest YPA average since his second season as the Patriots starter in 2002.

The Buccaneers still won the NFC South, but only by default as their 8-9 record was good enough in the league’s worst division, and they didn’t put up much of a fight in the post-season, losing at home to the Cowboys in the first round by a final score of 31-14. That game ended up being the final one of Brady’s illustrious career. Brady was set to be a free agent this off-season and likely could have kept playing if he wanted to, either back in Tampa Bay or with another team he signed with as a free agent, but he likely rightfully saw Tampa Bay as a team in decline and didn’t feel like any of his other potential destinations gave him a realistic chance to win another Super Bowl in what would have been his age 46 season, after a disappointing season in Tampa Bay, so, rather than risking injury for another year, he opted to call it quits.

The Buccaneers could have copied the strategy their division rival Saints followed after Drew Brees’ retirement two years ago, continue being aggressive with the cap in order to maintain respectability in the short-term, even if there’s no real chance of winning a Super Bowl, rather than going through a proper rebuild, but, instead the Buccaneers are letting the rebuild happen, which should prove to be the correct decision. After ranking 2nd and 9th in average annual salary of their roster in the previous two seasons respectively, the Buccaneers now rank just 26th and, while average annual value correlates heavily with winning percentage and the short-term result will likely be ugly, in the long run, their strategy will almost definitely get them back into legitimate contention faster, as the Buccaneers currently have 17 million in cap space for 2024, while the Saints have negative 77 million, after years of borrowing future cap space. 

The Buccaneers are also much more likely than the Saints to be in position to draft one of the top quarterback prospects in next year’s draft. Rather than shelling out top money for a middling quarterback like the Saints did by giving 150 million over 4 years to Derek Carr, the Buccaneers took a less expensive approach at the quarterback position, signing journeyman Baker Mayfield to an incentivized 1-year, 4 million dollar deal to compete with 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask, who the Buccaneers originally drafted to be a potential successor to Brady. Both quarterbacks at least have upside and could potentially prove to be a long-term starting quarterback for this team, but, even if they don’t, the result is likely to be the Buccaneers having one of the worst records in the league and ending up with a high draft pick as a result.

Trask’s draft position normally would suggest he’s the favorite, but he’s thrown just nine unimpressive regular season passes behind Brady the past two seasons and it doesn’t sound like his progress behind the scenes has been great either, so Mayfield is actually the likely favorite for the job. Mayfield was once the #1 overall pick, back in 2018, and his overall performance in four seasons with the Browns wasn’t bad, as he made 59 starts, while completing 61.6% of his passes for an average of 7.34 YPA, 92 touchdowns, and 56 interceptions, but the Browns felt he benefited significantly from his supporting cast and didn’t move the needle by himself, so they traded for Deshaun Watson and salary dumped Mayfield on the Panthers last off-season. 

In Carolina, Mayfield proved to be a disaster, completing 57.8% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in six starts, leading to him being benched and eventually cut by a Panthers team with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. However, he was better after being signed mid-season by the Rams, making four starts in place of the injured Matt Stafford and completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.59 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a very mediocre supporting cast. 

Mayfield won’t get a ton of help from his supporting cast in Tampa Bay, but he finished higher than 70 on PFF in each of his first three seasons in the league and, only going into his age 28 season, he has some bounce back potential and I think he has a better chance of reaching that potential than the raw, inexperienced Trask. This will be a quarterback battle for much of training camp and into the pre-season, but I would expect Mayfield to be the better quarterback and win the job. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Buccaneers started both quarterbacks at points this season, especially if they fall out of contention with Mayfield and want to at least get a look at the young Trask. This is an underwhelming quarterback room compared to most of the league, but both starting options at least have upside.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Tom Brady’s relative struggles last season were part of the reason why the Buccaneers’ offense disappointed, but Brady still played pretty well, finishing the season 10th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 79.7 grade, more than they can expect out of either of their quarterbacks this season, so Brady wasn’t the biggest problem on this offense. The bigger problem was their lack of a running game. Not only did the Buccaneers struggle to run the ball, ranking dead last in the NFL with a 3.39 YPC average (the 2nd worst team was at 3.71), but they didn’t even really try to run the ball, with the fewest team carries on the season (386) and the most team pass attempts by a wide margin (751, 100+ more than all but five teams), which put a lot of pressure on an aging Brady to make this offense go.

Run blocking was part of the problem (25th on PFF in team run blocking grade) and I’ll get into the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggles later, but the running backs themselves were also a problem, with their top-2 running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White ranking 50th and 53rd respectively out of 60 eligible running backs in run grade, while averaging 3.53 YPC and 3.73 YPC on 189 carries and 129 carries respectively. The Buccaneers also didn’t really do anything to improve this running back group significantly this off-season, aside from signing fellow veteran Chase Edmonds to replace Fournette, so they will be counting on White taking a big step forward in his second year in the league in 2023. He was a third round pick and came into the league with a good amount of upside, but he’ll need to improve significantly in year two to even be an average lead back option. 

White probably won’t have any choice but to be the lead back though, as Edmonds has never been more than a change of pace back, with 401 carries in five seasons in the league and a career high of 116. Edmonds at least has a career 4.48 YPC average, but most of his carries have come in passing situations when it is easier to run, so that’s a bit misleading and, even if he can continue having a solid average in Tampa Bay, it will almost definitely only be as a change of pace back. The Buccaneers also used a 3rd round pick in 2020 on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, but he’s shown very little in three years in the league, leading to him receiving just 91 career touches. He’ll probably have a bigger role by default this season, but I don’t see him having a big impact.

With a very pass heavy gameplan last season, the Buccaneers tried to compensate for their lack of a running game by throwing frequently to their running backs, with Fournette and White receiving 83 targets and 58 targets respectively, but they averaged just 6.30 yards per target and 5.00 yards per target respectively, so that wasn’t an effective way to move the ball last season. In 2023, the Buccaneers will have to be more balanced, unable to put the entire burden of moving the offense on Tom Brady anymore, but they still figure to use their running backs heavily in the passing game.

White figures to see a significant uptick in carries as the lead back on what should be a more balanced team in 2023, but he also figures to still maintain a significant passing down role. Edmonds will also contribute in passing situations, which he’s decent in, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in his career, up slightly from the 1.13 White averaged last season. Vaughn could also see some passing down work as that was considered a strength of his entering the league, but he has just 79 career receiving yards on 22 career targets, so he probably won’t be a useful contributor in that aspect either. This is an underwhelming backfield overall.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I mentioned the Buccaneers’ run blocking struggles earlier. They were better in pass protection, leading to Brady remarkably only being sacked 22 times on 758 dropbacks, but a lot of that had to do with Brady himself, as Brady’s 2.30 second average time in the pocket was fastest in the league by a significant margin, with 2nd ranked Cooper Rush (2.44) actually being closer to the 10th ranked quarterback than he was to Brady, and having to get rid of the ball so quickly led to their offense frequently not being in rhythm. Unsurprisingly, Brady saw a significant increase in yards per attempt (7.00) when he had more than 2.5 seconds to throw, as opposed to 6.11 when he threw it in less than 2.5 seconds.

The Buccaneers lost center Ryan Jensen to injury, left guard Ali Marpet to retirement, and right guard Alex Cappa to free agency last off-season, so the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggles weren’t too surprising, but things got worse when left tackle Donovan Smith suffered an injury and replacement right guard Shaq Mason struggled by his standards. To save money with both players going into their age 30 seasons, the Buccaneers moved on from Smith and Mason this off-season, leaving them with just two starters remaining from their Super Bowl offensive line, one of whom, Jensen, is coming off of a lost season due to injury.

Despite not having a lot of flexibility, the Buccaneers did a good job finding some decent replacements this off-season, signing veteran Matt Feiler and using a second round pick on North Dakota State’s Cody Mauch. Mauch figures to start right away at right guard and, though he could have growing pains in year one, he profiles as a future above average starter, while Feiler is a versatile player who could start at either left guard or right tackle, depending on where the Buccaneers want to play Luke Goedeke, a second round pick a year ago. 

Goedeke struggled in 7 starts at left guard and 1 start at right tackle as a rookie (43.7 overall PFF grade), but he still has the upside to be significantly improved in year two. The Buccaneers also have 2021 3rd round pick Robert Hainsey, who filled in admirably at center with a 66.7 PFF grade in 17 starts in the first significant action of his career last season and who will now likely serve as useful, versatile depth on the interior, while mediocre career backup Justin Skule (12 starts in 4 seasons in the league) provides depth at tackle.

Feiler’s age is a concern, going into his age 31 season, especially since he finished last season with a career worst 53.3 PFF grade, but he had finished above 65 in each of his previous four seasons as a starter (55 starts total over that span), with three seasons over 70, so even if his best days are behind him, he could still have some bounce back potential in 2023 and could have a better year than he had in 2022. It’s possible he could keep declining, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and a capable season from him is definitely not out of the question.

Age is a concern for Jensen as well, especially after an injury cost him his entire 2022 season. Jensen has finished above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons as a starter in his career, making all 81 starts in those 5 seasons, with a pair of seasons in the 70s on PFF, but his last season over 70 was back in 2019 and it’s likely his best days are behind him at this point, even if he manages to hold up as a solid starter for another season. A noticeable decline is certainly a possibility for him, which would likely make center a position of weakness on this offense.

With the Buccaneers’ other offensive line options either being young and inexperienced or over 30 and likely on the decline, it’s good they still have Tristan Wirfs, who has probably been their best offensive lineman over the past few seasons, even when this used to be a much better offensive line. Wirfs is only going into his age 24 season, but the 2020 13th overall pick has already developed into one of the best offensive tackles in the league, ranking 12th, 6th, and 6th among offensive tackles on PFF in three seasons in the league respectively, with overall grades of 81.8, 84.6, and 83.8 respectively. Wirfs will be moving to the left side in 2023 for the first time with Donovan Smith gone and it’s possible he’s not as good on the left side as he is on the right, but I don’t expect a significant drop off and he should be one of the better left tackles in the league in 2023. His presence should significantly benefit an offensive line that otherwise figures to be a liability again this season.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Buccaneers’ receiving corps were supposed to be a strength going into last season, but even this group disappointed in 2022. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had impressive slash lines of 77/1124/6 and 104/1023/3 respectively, the third season in four years in which both have surpassed 1,000 yards, with Godwin’s injury plagued 2020 season being the only exception. However, even they weren’t as good as they normally are, with Godwin averaging 1.76 yards per route run, down from 1.97 for his career, and posting a 75.1 PFF grade, worst in six seasons in the league, while Evans averaged 1.81 yards per route run, down from 2.03 for his career, and posting a 74.0 PFF grade, second worst of his 9-year career.

For Godwin, injury was probably part of the problem, as he didn’t look quite 100% in his first year back from a torn ACL and, going into his age 27 season, he has plenty of bounce back potential, even with an obvious downgrade under center. For Evans, the slight decline is more concerning, as he now heads into his age 30 season, with his last season over 80 on PFF and over 2 yards per route run coming back in 2019. Evans was still the more effective of the two options in 2022, averaging 8.85 yards per target, as opposed to 7.20 for Godwin, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Evans declined a little bit in 2023 and a healthier Godwin became their more effective pass catcher going forward. Evans and Godwin are still one of the better wide receiver duos in the league, but they’re probably not as good as they were 2-3 years ago.

Aside from Evans and Godwin, the rest of this receiving corps was a big problem in 2022. I already mentioned all of the inefficient targets to running backs, but the Buccaneers also targeted tight ends frequently in the passing game in 2022 with little success, with 118 targets to Cade Otton (65 targets), Cameron Brate (38 targets), Ko Kieft (10), and Kyle Rudolph (5 targets) resulting in 5.70 yards per attempt, as the Buccaneers badly missed Rob Gronkowski, who retired the previous off-season. 

Brate and Rudolph are gone, leaving Otton and Kieft, 4th and 6th round rookie last season, atop the depth chart, along with Payne Durham, a 5th round rookie out of Purdue this season. Kieft did average a decent 1.25 yards per route run last season, but in very limited action, while Otton averaged just 0.84 yards per route run. Both have upside and could be better in year two, but this is a very underwhelming tight end depth chart, without any proven veteran options or high draft picks in the group.

Russell Gage was also mediocre last season as the third receiver, averaging just 1.15 yards per route run and finishing with a 51/426/5 slash line. He’s been better in the past, averaging 1.71 yards per route run between 2020 and 2021 and, only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential, but I wouldn’t expect him to be any better than a solid #3 receiver. He’ll be locked into that role because the Buccaneers have basically no depth behind him on the depth chart, with no reserve options with any experience and 6th round rookie Trey Palmer being the only reserve option who was even drafted, with the rest of the depth chart filled out by first and second year undrafted free agents who have never caught a pass in the NFL. Evans and Godwin are a very talented wide receiver duo, but this is a very top heavy group.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Buccaneers lost a trio of interior defenders this off-season who played significant snaps for them in 2022, with Rakeem Nunez-Roches (548 snaps), William Gholston (494 snaps), and Akiem Hicks (398 snaps) all no longer with the team. To replace them, the Buccaneers used their first round pick on Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey, they signed veteran Greg Gaines in free agency, and they will likely give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick Logan Hall, who played 403 snaps as a rookie. Hall struggled as a rookie, finishing 133rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders with a 35.3 PFF grade, but he still has the upside to develop into a useful contributor long-term and could easily take a step forward in year two. Hall’s improvement could be mostly by default though, so he still should be a reserve, behind Kancey, Gaines, and top holdover Vita Vea.

Gaines was an under-the-radar signing, but he could prove to be a good value on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. A 4th round pick in 2019, Gaines flashed potential in his first two seasons in the league on snap counts of 183 and 201, before breaking out as a solid starter in his first season in that role in 2021, posting a 67.9 PFF grade across 780 snaps, holding up against the run and adding 4.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His play dropped off in 2022 though, as he had just a 59.1 PFF grade across 731 snaps, struggling somewhat against the run, and totaling just 4 sacks, 1 hit, and a 3.5% pressure rate, leading to his underwhelming free agent market. He’s not a sure thing to bounce back, but he’s only in his age 27 season and he was a smart, cheap signing for a team without much financial flexibility this off-season.

Vea probably has the most upside of the bunch, even with Kancey being added in the first round. Vea was a first round pick as well, selected 12th overall back in 2018, and he’s proven to be worth the pick, mostly playing the run well, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 18 sacks, 28 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 64 games in five seasons in the league. Vea fell below 70 on PFF for a season for the first time in his career in 2022, but that was because his run defense fell off significantly and he still was an effective interior pass rusher, with 6.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. Still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, there is a good chance Vea’s run defense bounces back in 2023. He’s the best player in a position group that looks pretty solid, despite some off-season losses.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Unlike at the interior defender position, the Buccaneers bring back all of their key contributors at the edge defender position from a year ago and they should be better than a year ago, with top edge defender Shaq Barrett returning from injury and Louisville’s Yaya Diaby added in the 3rd round of the draft. Barrett tore his achilles in week 8 of last season and might not be 100% for the start of the year, but the Buccaneers should get more out of him than last season, when he was limited to 382 snaps on the season.

Barrett finished 70 or higher on PFF in seven straight seasons prior to last season, including three seasons of 80 or higher, most recently with a 82.9 grade in 2021. Barrett did fall to 68.3 before last year’s injury and the combination of his recent injury and his age (age 31 season) could mean his best days are behind him and, at the very least, he could struggle to bounce back to his top form in his first year back. Still, having him back, even for just most of the season at close to full strength, will be a boost for this position group.

The Buccaneers also re-signed Anthony Nelson, who replaced Barrett last season, bringing the 2019 4th round pick back on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. Nelson wasn’t bad in Barrett’s absence last season (63.6 PFF grade on 632 snaps) and he flashed earlier in his career as a reserve on snap counts of 152, 324 and 359 in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively, especially excelling against the run, so he should be a useful reserve rotational option for them and at a reasonable price. He’ll compete with Diaby for reserve snaps and should beat the rookie out for the #3 edge defender job.

The return of Barrett and the addition of Diaby should take some of the pressure off of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, whose 843 snaps played ranked 14th in the league among edge defenders last season. Tryon-Shoyinka wasn’t bad last season, posting a 67.1 overall grade and totaling 4 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate, but he could be more effective if given more frequent rest, which he should get this season. That could lead to the 2021 first round pick taking a big step forward in year three in 2023. This is not a bad position group and it’s one that should be better than a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Buccaneers somewhat surprisingly kept every down linebacker Lavonte David on a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Going into his age 33 season, David doesn’t seem to fit the rebuilding Buccaneers’ timeline, but he’s a veteran leader that doesn’t break the bank and, despite his age, he hasn’t really shown any signs of decline yet, posting a 84.1 PFF grade last season on 1,074 snaps that ranked 3rd among off ball linebackers on PFF, the 5th season over 80 in his 11-year career and his 6th straight season over 75. A talented run and pass defender, David’s every down abilities have led to him playing 65.8 snaps per game in 166 games in 11 seasons in the league, since being selected by the Buccaneers in the 2nd round in 2012. He may start to decline in 2023, but, even at less than his best, he should remain an above average every down option and at a very cheap price.

The Buccaneers also somewhat surprisingly might end up moving on from young every down linebacker Devin White, who has requested a trade ahead of the final year of his contract. The Buccaneers are publicly against trading White, but they also don’t seem to want to pay him what he wants and ultimately may end up moving him rather than risk losing him for nothing if they don’t think they can get him signed and if they get a good trade offer. 

Losing White actually wouldn’t be a big loss for the Buccaneers, as he has finished below average on PFF in both pass coverage and run defense grade in all four seasons in the league since being selected by the Buccaneers 5th overall in 2019. He gets attention for his pass rush ability and he does have a 23.5% pressure rate for his career as a blitzer, with 20.5 sacks and 35 hits, but he only blitzes on 12.8% of his snaps and he has been a liability most of the rest of the time. I would expect that to continue in 2023 if he remains on the roster.

The Buccaneers don’t have great depth at the position though. They added Pittsburgh’s SirVocea Dennis in the 5th round of the draft, but he would likely struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. KJ Britt was added in the 5th round in 2021, but he’s played just 74 snaps in two seasons in the league and has mostly struggled. Unless White stays and takes a big step forward in coverage and against the run, the Buccaneers are likely to have a liability at one linebacker spot in both of those aspects, so, even if White is a good blitzer, the Buccaneers will still need the aging Lavonte David to not decline significantly and continue carrying this position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Buccaneers also somewhat surprisingly re-signed starting cornerback Jamel Dean. They had to shell out a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal to do so, but Dean is only going into his age 27 season and he could easily prove to be a great value on that contract. He’s posted grades of 74.5 or higher on PFF in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, but durability has been a concern, as he’s missed at least two games due to injury in all four seasons, averaging 633 snaps per season with 38 starts in 57 games in his career, which probably hurt his free agent market. He could easily miss more time this season, but, even if he does, he should remain an above average starter for this team when on field. 

Dean being re-signed locks the Buccaneers’ starting cornerbacks in long-term, with fellow young cornerback Carlton Davis being kept on a 3-year, 44.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Davis has his own durability concerns, also missing at least two games per season in his career, with 18 games missed in five seasons in the league since being selected in the 2nd round in 2018, and he hasn’t been quite as effective as Dean, but he has still finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, with three seasons over 65, maxing out at 70.4 in 2019. Only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, although that unfortunately could mean more injuries.

The Buccaneers couldn’t retain all of their cornerbacks though, losing #3 cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting to the Titans on a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. Murphy-Bunting missed 8 games with injury last season, but finished with a 76.6 PFF grade on 430 snaps and the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him this off-season, outside of using a 6th round pick on Kansas State’s Josh Hayes, who is unlikely to contribute in a significant way in year one. 

Dee Delaney is penciled in as the #3 cornerback, but the 216 snaps he played last season were a career high for the 2018 undrafted free agent and, though he had a decent 64.2 PFF grade, he also struggled with a 54.9 grade on 213 snaps in 2021 in the only other somewhat significant action of his career. He hasn’t proven himself enough to be an obvious candidate for the #3 cornerback job, except for the Buccaneers might not have a better choice. The only other option on the roster who has played an NFL snap is Zyon McCollum, a 2022 5th round pick who struggled mightily on 278 rookie year snaps. The Buccaneers have an above average starting duo at cornerback, but they both are injury prone and depth is a big concern, especially since a #3 cornerback plays close to every snap in today’s NFL.

The Buccaneers also don’t have the safety depth that they had last season to help mask their lack of cornerback depth. Antoine Winfield (764 snaps), Mike Edwards (814 snaps), Keanu Neal (580 snaps), and Logan Ryan (445 snaps) all played significant snaps at safety last season as the Buccaneers frequently used three safeties together in obvious sub packages, but the latter three are no longer with the team. Ryan was the only one of the three to finish above 60 on PFF and he played the least, posting a 69.1 grade in 9 games in an injury plagued season, but without them the Buccaneers don’t have a reserve safety option on the roster with any NFL experience and they didn’t use a single draft pick on the position either.

Fortunately, they did add at least a good starting option in Ryan Neal, who should form an above average starting duo with holdover Antoine Winfield, who was the best of the bunch last season with a 77.8 PFF grade. That’s nothing new for the 2020 2nd round pick, who also had a 86.1 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2021, after a 67.1 grade as a rookie in 2020. In total, he started all 42 games he’s played in his career, missing 8 games total in three seasons, and he is just entering his prime in his age 25 season. He could easily be even better in 2023 than he was in 2022, especially since he missed four games with injury last season. 

Ryan Neal, meanwhile, had a 85.6 PFF grade last season, essentially out of nowhere, as the 2018 undrafted free agent posted grades of 57.6 and 59.6 on 393 snaps and 434 snaps in 2020 and 2021 respectively in the only other defensive action in his career. Neal still only played 713 snaps last season as a reserve option who entered the lineup mid-season and he was greeted with a cold free agency market, limiting him to a 1-year deal with the Buccaneers worth just 1.2325 million, but he has a very good chance to be a steal at that price and at least be a solid starter, with the upside for more, even if he is pretty unproven. Neal and Winfield are an above average starting duo, as are Dean and Davis, but their lack of depth and sub package options at both positions is a problem and hurts their overall grade in this position group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Buccaneers will definitely be worse on offense this season without Tom Brady, who actually played pretty well to carry this offense to a middling finish (16th in offensive DVOA) last season, and they still have the same problems with their running backs, offensive line, and receiving corps depth that they had last season, this time with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league as well. However, this team might not bottom out like some are expecting, as they actually still have a pretty solid defense. 

They ranked 13th in defensive DVOA last season and, while they didn’t bring back everyone from last year’s unit, they did a good job adding cheap replacements in free agency and they still have several above average starters on that side of the ball, including Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Antoine Winfield, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, and Vita Vea, the latter two of whom should give the Buccaneers more than they did a year ago, with Barrett returning from a season ending injury and Vea coming off of a career worst run grade from PFF. This is likely to be a below average team, but they should win at least a few games, especially with a weak schedule, and I wouldn’t rule out them winning the miserable NFC South again, based purely on how bad the rest of the division. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10)

The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

Things have been even worse than I expected because of all of the Cardinals injuries. They have had a bunch of players in and out of the lineup all season and right now are without starting quarterback Kyler Murray, backup quarterback Colt McCoy, arguably their three best offensive linemen DJ Humphries, Justin Pugh, and Rodney Hudson, talented tight end Zach Ertz, #3 receiver Rondale Moore, starting interior defender Zach Allen, and top cornerback Byron Murphy. Not surprisingly, their quarterback injuries are their biggest concern, as third string quarterback Trace McSorley will be making his first career start this week, after struggling mightily in limited relief work thus far in his career.

All that being said, I think we are getting some line value with them, as this line has shot up to favor the visiting Buccaneers by 7.5 points. The Buccaneers have their own injury concerns, expected to be without starting left tackle Donovan Smith, top edge defender Shaq Barrett and his replacement Carl Nassib, top cornerback Jamel Dean, top safety Antoine Winfield, and top interior defender Vita Vea and, as a result, my calculated line has them favored by just 6 points here in Arizona. I have no desire to bet on an unproven third string quarterback unless I’m getting significant line value, but I would take the Cardinals for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Arizona Cardinals 14

Pick against the spread: Arizona +7.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

Historically, this would be a spot where a Tom Brady led team would be an automatic bet, as he 46-13 ATS all-time against a team with a better record than this, 60-32 ATS all-time as an underdog or favorite of less than three, and 36-14 ATS after a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. However, Tom Brady has not played at the same level in his age 45 season this year and the Buccaneers don’t have a great roster around them, so we’re not getting any line value with them as 3.5-point home underdogs against the surging Bengals, who have eight wins by four points or more. 

If I were to bet on the Buccaneers, it would almost be a pure bet on a spot and I’m not sure if that justifies a bet anymore at this point in Brady’s career. I might still bet on the Buccaneers if they get both Antoine Winfield and Tristan Wirfs back from injury, as they are a different team when those two key players are in the lineup, but they are both considered legitimately questionable, so this is a low confidence pick for now. Depending on the final injury report and where this line ends up, I may update this pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season last week and are now starting 7th round rookie Brock Purdy, set to make the first start of his career this week, but, despite that, this line has only dropped from favoring the 49ers by 6.5 last week on the early line to favoring them by 3.5 points this week, which is a relatively insignificant line movement, especially when you consider that the 49ers could be without stud edge defender Nick Bosa, who seems likely to be limited even if he can play, after not practicing all week. This line is also still bigger than you might realize, when you consider that 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal. 

On top of that, the 49ers are in a tough spot, having to turn around and play a key divisional game against the Seahawks next Thursday on a short week, with favorites covering at just a 43.3% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers aren’t in good shape injury wise either, missing top edge defender Shaq Barrett, starting safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards, and stud right tackle Tristan Wirfs, but those players have all been out for multiple weeks now, so they wouldn’t affect the line movement in this game. My calculated line barely favors the 49ers, doing so by just 1.5 points, so we’re still getting enough line value with the Buccaneers for them to be worth a small bet this week.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Saints are just 4-8, but they’ve played better than their record suggests, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Their biggest problem has been the turnover margin, with a league worst -14, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, when a team faces an opponent with a turnover margin that is at least 15 points better than theirs (-14 vs. +2 for Tampa Bay), the team with the significantly worse turnover margin entering the game covers the spread at a 54.1% rate.

The Saints are also getting healthier, after being among the most injury affected teams in the league to begin the season. They still remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas (9 games missed) and talented starting center Erik McCoy (3 games missed), but feature back Alvin Kamara (2 games missed), starting wide receivers Jarvis Landry (5 games missed) and Chris Olave (1 game missed), starting offensive linemen Andrus Peat (4 games missed) and James Hurst (1 game missed), stud edge defenders Cameron Jordan (1 game missed) and Marcus Davenport (2 games missed), as well as talented safety Marcus Maye (4 games missed) have all missed time this season and have since returned, while talented linebacker Pete Werner (3 games missed) and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (7 games missed) could also return this week.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, seem to be going in the opposite direction injury wise, missing stud right tackle Tristan Wirfs for the first time this season, while their defense remains without top edge defender Shaq Barrett and will likely also be without their two starting safeties Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield, which is especially a big deal because the latter is one of the best players in the league at his position. My roster rankings have the Buccaneers just a half point better than the Saints, given the current state of both teams, meaning they should be no more than field goal favorites in this game, if not favorites of less than a field goal.

This line is only 3.5, which might not seem like a big deal, but with 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer and 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly, getting this line on the other side of three is very significant, especially since the Buccaneers probably deserve to be favored by less than a field goal. I see this being a relatively close game, even if the Buccaneers can win, with the two most likely outcomes being either team winning by exactly a field goal, both of which would cover this spread, so the Saints are worth a bet at +3.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)

Typically significant road favorites cover at a high rate after a bye week, covering the spread 63.0% of the time as favorites of more than a field goal. At first glance, that would seem to apply to this game, with the Buccaneers favored by 3.5 points, but I don’t think the Buccaneers deserve to be favored by this much. The Browns are just 3-7, but four of their seven losses have come by three points or fewer, which would cover this spread, meaning they would have covered this spread in seven of their ten games this season, including four of their five home games.

Given that, this line seems too high. The Buccaneers have been better in recent weeks and they’re better overall than their 5-5 record suggests, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points above average, but this isn’t the same Buccaneers team that we’ve seen in the past couple years, so they shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal on the road against a competent team that is regularly competitive even in their losses.

If the Buccaneers weren’t coming off of a bye, the Browns would be my Pick of the Week, but, even with the Buccaneers being well-rested, we’re getting enough line value with the Browns for them to be worth a big bet, as my calculated line has this as a pick ‘em. The money line at +150 is also worth a bet, as the Browns should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up. Even if they don’t pull the upset, about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, so we have a good cushion.

Cleveland Browns 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Munich

Typically the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, who covers at a 61.9% rate historically, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like an overseas game. However, in this circumstance, the team favored by 2.5 points, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually seems like the lesser of these two teams. The Buccaneers have more name recognition, but the Seahawks have two more wins and it hasn’t been a fluke, as they rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average, which is in line with where they rank in my roster rankings. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are just two points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency (11th in the NFL) and, due to injuries, they are only a point and a half above average in my roster rankings, suggesting the Seahawks are the ones who should be favored by a couple points. There isn’t enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting unless we are getting a full field goal with them and I don’t love going against Tom Brady in this situation (45-12 ATS in his career against teams with a better record than his, 59-31 ATS as underdogs of favorites of fewer than three), but the Seahawks still seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and there is some value with the money line at +125, as the Seahawks should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

This is a matchup of the previous two Super Bowl winners and a rematch of a divisional round game from a year ago when the eventual champion Rams barely got the best of the Buccaneers, in a matchup between a 12-win Rams team and a 13-win Buccaneers team. However, going into this matchup, both teams have disappointed significantly this season, with both teams sitting below .500, the Rams at 3-4 and the Buccaneers at 3-5.

The Buccaneers got off to a 2-0 start, but their offense has been middling at best all season, ranking 21st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their dominant defense that lead them to their first two victories has not been nearly as good since, in large part due to key injury absences, which will continue this week, with stud safety Antoine Winfield and top edge defender Shaq Barrett out for this game, among others. The Buccaneers offense is probably better than they’ve played so far, but they’re not the same in the receiving corps and on the offensive line as they’ve been in recent years and quarterback Tom Brady is starting to show his age, even if only a little bit, with a less impressive supporting cast.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been middling on both sides of the ball for most of the season, falling from 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency in 2021 to 16th this season and falling from 9th to 12th on defense. Their offensive problems largely stem from the off-season losses of wide receiver Odell Beckham and offensive linemen Andrew Whitworth and Austin Corbett, but they’ve also had further injuries on the offensive line that have made things worse. On defense, their dropoff has not been as pronounced, as they do seem to be feeling the effects of losing top edge defender Von Miller this off-season.

Overall, I have both teams about even in my roster rankings, which makes this a tough call. I have the Buccaneers as slightly better and this line favoring them by a field goal is what you would expect when a home team is slightly better than the road team, but my numbers have the Rams slightly more likely to cover at this number than the Buccaneers, so I am taking them for pick ‘em purposes. There’s obviously not nearly enough here to bet on either side though and a push might be the most likely outcome, given that the most likely outcome when two evenly matched teams play is the home team winning by a field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games as big road favorites against last place teams to fall to 3-4 on the season, but they still rank 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 2.5 points above average and, even with some key players missing due to injury, they rank even higher than that in my roster rankings, about 3.5 points above average. On top of that, they return home this week on a short week, which puts them at a significant advantage, with non-divisional home favorites covering the spread at a 63.8% rate on Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers are only favored by a point, but they arguably deserve to be favored by more, as it’s hard for a team to go on the road on a short week and play an unfamiliar opponent who is comparable to or better than them. This is also a spot where Tom Brady quarterbacked teams tend to be close to an automatic bet, going 59-30 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in his career. That’s especially true after a loss, with Tom Brady led teams going 36-12 ATS after a loss as long as they are not favored by more than a touchdown. Brady also hasn’t lost three in a row since 2002, going 9-3 ATS after back-to-back losses. Most of this was from his New England days, but the Buccaneers will definitely be the hungrier and more desperate team, which should give them an advantage.

The Buccaneers are missing some key players, including top safety Antoine Winfield and starting cornerback Carlton Davis, but the Ravens have some key injury absences as well, most notably top safety Marcus Williams and top interior defender Calais Campbell, as well as potentially their top pass catcher Mark Andrews, who is very questionable after not practicing all week. The Ravens are still the better team, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 6.5 points above average, as well as 7 points above average in my roster rankings, even with their current injuries, but the Buccaneers are at a significant advantage as a desperate team at home in a non-divisional game on a short week, so, in a game in which they basically just have to win to cover, I think they are worth betting. This is a small bet for now, but it would become a bigger play if Andrews didn’t play, unless the line moved significantly to compensate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -1

Confidence: Medium