Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Houston Texans (1-2)

I thought the Texans were one of the more overrated teams in the league going into the New England game and, now after their near win, I think they’re even more overrated. Deshaun Watson did a great job of extending plays, but he was going against a front 7 that’s one of the weakest in the league without Dont’a Hightower. He also showed bad judgement on several throws downfield, something that was an issue for him in his first start against Cincinnati and in his collegiate days at Clemson, where he was interception prone.

Watson led just one touchdown drive in his first start against the Bengals and that was on a long run he broke on the ground. The Titans have a comparable defense and should be able to keep him in the pocket much more easily than the Patriots. Watson could be a good quarterback someday, but he’s still very early in his development and his offensive supporting cast is one of the worst in the league. He should have a lot of trouble this week, especially since Tennessee defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is 21-2 against rookie quarterbacks in his legendary career.

The Texans’ defense could keep them in the game at home, but outside of their front 7 they just aren’t that good of a team. They have an average at best secondary, after losing AJ Bouye and Quintin Demps this off-season and losing Kevin Johnson to injury. The Titans, meanwhile, are one of the most well-rounded teams in the league and they and are a great value as mere 2 point road favorites here. I have this line calculated at -5.5, so this is my Pick of the Week, as the Titans basically just need to win straight up to cover here.

Tennessee Titans 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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