Quarterback

The Bills have consistently been one of the best teams in the league since 2020, winning at least 11 games in six straight seasons since then, while leading the league with 73 total regular season wins over that stretch, but it hasn’t translated to any Super Bowl appearances. It is not as if they have no post-season success, winning at least one playoff game in all six of those seasons, becoming the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game in six straight seasons and not make the Super Bowl.

Josh Allen has gotten a lot of criticism for not taking this team to the Super Bowl yet, but he has performed pretty well in 15 career post-season games, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 767 yards and 9 touchdowns on 135 carries (5.68 YPC). The bigger problem has been the Bills’ defense, which has surrendered 33.2 points per game in their six post-season losses since 2020.

Long-time head coach Sean McDermott had a lot of regular season success (98-50 since taking over as head coach in 2017), but he has a defensive background and finally paid the price for all of the Bills’ post-season defensive failures, getting fired this off-season. In his place, the Bills promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who has had a lot of success in three years on the job, and he hired promising defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard to run the defense, allowing Brady to continue focusing on offense and calling offensive plays. Whether or not this is what puts the Bills over the top remains to be seen, but changing things up makes sense at this point and the Bills seem likely to at least win a lot of regular season games again and remain in contention in the AFC.

Allen is going into his age 30 season, which is a bit of a concern for a quarterback whose athleticism is a big part of his game, but Allen has been extremely durable, not missing a game since his rookie year in 2018, despite 782 carries in seven seasons since then, so he could age better than most dual threat quarterbacks and remain an elite quarterback for years to come. Allen’s breakout as an elite quarterback coincides with the Bills’ breakout as one of the best seasons in the league, completing 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 190 touchdowns, and 73 interceptions and rushing for 3,580 yards and 62 touchdowns on 673 carries (5.32 YPC) in 101 starts since 2020. It shouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continues playing at a similar level in 2026.

If Allen does miss time with injury, the Bills would be in a lot of trouble, not just because of how good he is, but because they have an underwhelming backup quarterback situation, with Kyle Allen, who has a career 82.1 passer rating in 19 starts in eight seasons in the league and no starts since 2022, likely to remain the #2 quarterback, without another good alternative being added this off-season. Some good teams could survive a short stretch without their starting quarterback, but the Bills do not seem to be one of those teams. That being said, the likelihood of Kyle Allen being needed for an extended period of time is slim, given Allen’s history of durability.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

While their defense coming up short has been the primary issue for the Bills in their recent playoff defeats, the bigger issue last season was their lack of talent at the wide receiver position. In their ultimate playoff loss to the Denver Broncos, the Bills were using Brandin Cooks, a well past his prime player who got cut by the last place Saints earlier in the year, as their #2 wide receiver and top outside receiver. The Bills’ three leading receivers last season were slot receiver Khalil Shakir (72/719/4) and a pair of tight ends in Dalton Kincaid (39/571/5) and Dawson Knox (36/417/4), while their leading outside receiver was Keon Coleman (38/404/4), who was benched and made a healthy stretch on several occasions due to disappointments on and off the field. 

The Bills viewed getting a better outside receiver as paramount this off-season and paid a significant price to get DJ Moore from the Bears, giving up a late second round pick and picking up the remaining 98 million over four years owed on Moore’s contract, 49 million of which is guaranteed over the next two seasons. Moore used to be a consistent 1000+ yard receiver, surpassing that mark in four of five seasons from 2019-2023, but he had an inefficient 98/966/6 on 140 targets (6.90 yards per target) in 2024 and then a career low 50/682/6 slash line on 85 targets in 2025, slowly getting phased out of the Bears’ offense down the stretch, with just 41 targets in the Bears’ final 9 games. 

Moore is still only going into his age 29 season and hasn’t missed a game since 2020, so he shouldn’t be washed up yet. More likely his statistical decline over the past two seasons is more the result of poor chemistry with new quarterback Caleb Williams than Moore himself declining, but the Bills paid a steep price in terms of draft compensation to get a player who has a lot of guaranteed money left on his contract and whose current team had been phasing him out for younger players. He should at least be somewhat of an upgrade for the Bills, but it is fair to question the price they paid to get him. 

Moore might lead the Bills in targets, but both Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid figure to still be heavily involved in the offense, as they are targets Josh Allen trusts, who have been very efficient for this offense. Shakir has caught 75.8% of his targets in four seasons in the league, while averaging 8.89 yards per target and 1.81 yards per route run, so he doesn’t need a huge target share to have a significant impact on this offense. Kincaid, meanwhile, has averaged 1.80 yards per route run and 7.87 yards per target in his career, including 2.79 yards per route run (1st among tight ends) and 11.65 yards per target last season, showing the talent that made him a first round pick in 2023.

Kincaid’s biggest issue in his career has been injuries, costing him nine games over the past two seasons and limiting his snap count in others (35.9 snaps per game when he does play), but he obviously has the talent to be a talented every down tight end if he can ever stay healthy enough to play a full snap count. Whether that happens this season or not remains to be seen, but I would project him to at least play more than last season. He might not be as efficient, but he could still produce enough to have a significant impact on this offense.

If Kincaid stays healthier this season, his playing time would likely come at the expense of Dawson Knox, who is a much less efficient target, averaging 1.11 yards per route run and 7.74 yards per target in seven seasons in the league. Now going into his age 30 season, Knox is unlikely to get any better at this stage of his career and could get worse, so it would be for the best for the Bills’ offense if he was more of a traditional #2 tight end. The Bills also have Jackson Hawes, a 2025 5th round pick who excelled as a blocking specialist as a rookie, blocking on 78.9% of his snaps, but also averaging 1.81 yards per route run in his limited role as a pass catcher. He should play a similar role in 2026 and, if he ever got an expanded role in the passing game, he could surprise people and be somewhat productive. 

Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer, their two most productive outside receivers by default, both remain on the roster and will compete for the #3 wide receiver role. Other options for that role include 4th round rookie Skyler Bell and blocking specialist Tyrell Shavers, who played 441 snaps last season, after only playing 32 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, and averaged just 1.17 yards per route run, while blocking on 50.1% of his snaps. The Bills have made big investments in Coleman and Palmer and are probably hoping one of the two wins the job.

Coleman was selected in the first round in 2024, is still only going into his age 23 season, and has flashed potential thus far in his career, averaging 1.50 yards per route run, but the Bills have been disappointed with his effort off-the-field and have been underwhelmed with his abilities on the field thus far. However, it sounds like he is getting a clean slate going into his age 26 season and he has the talent to be the favorite for the #3 receiver job. 

Palmer, meanwhile, is owed 10.25 million mostly guaranteed this season on a 3-year, 29 million dollar contract the Bills signed him to last off-season, but that guaranteed money is probably the only reason he is still on the roster, as he had just a 22/303/0 slash line and 1.28 yards per route run last season. He has been a little better in the past, but his career 1.37 yards per route run average isn’t particularly impressive either. It seems unlikely he will have a significant role in this offense and he could be overtaken by the rookie Bell for the #4 receiver job at some point this season, as Bell was a great value at his draft slot and has the tools to be a long-term starter. This should be a better receiver corps than a year ago, with DJ Moore added, Dalton Kincaid potentially being healthier, and Keon Coleman potentially taking a step forward.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills’ offensive line was a concern going into this off-season because they had been an above average unit in recent years, but had a pair of starters, left guard David Edwards and center Connor McGovern, set to hit free agency. However, the Bills were able to retain McGovern on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal and, while they lost Edwards, he was the more replaceable of the two. In his absence, the Bills will either promote Alec Anderson, their top reserve the past two seasons, or plug in veteran free agent addition Austin Corbett.

Anderson has flashed a lot of potential on snap counts of 290 and 189 over the past two seasons respectively, but the 2022 undrafted free agent is still a projection to a larger role and also the Bills like him as a 6th offensive lineman in jumbo packages, which the Bills have run more than any team in the league over the past two seasons, so the Bills may prefer to start Corbett, a more experienced and proven starter. 

Corbett has started 78 games in 8 seasons in the league (67 at guard, 10 at center, and 1 at tackle) and has always been an average to above average starter, but the concern with him is both age, going into his age 31 season, and durability, missing 29 games over the past three seasons combined, which is why the Bills were able to get him on only a 1-year, 1.4875 million dollar deal. He was still decent across 11 starts last season and could prove to be a steal if he can stay healthy and avoid any further decline, but that is a big if at this point. The Bills may wind up starting the unproven Anderson, with Corbett operating as a versatile reserve and their 6th offensive lineman when they run jumbo packages.

Fortunately, the rest of this offensive line stays the same from the past two seasons. McGovern, a 2020 3rd round pick by the Cowboys, was a bit of a late bloomer, not having an above average season until his 5th season in the league in 2024, but he now has back-to-back above average seasons and still is only going into his age 29 season, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. Right guard O’Cyrus Torrence has made 50 starts in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the second round in 2023 and he has been decent, but unspectacular.

The strength of this offensive line is the tackle position, where left tackle Dion Dawkins has been an above average starter for most of his career (137 starts in 9 seasons in the league), while Spencer Brown, a 2021 3rd round pick (69 starts in 5 seasons in the league), has also developed into an above average in recent years. Dawkins’ age is becoming a concern, as he is going into his age 32 season and could decline somewhat this season, which would hurt this offensive line somewhat, but he would have to decline a lot to become a liability.

Along with Dawkins’ age and the uncertainty at left guard, the other big concern on this offensive line is depth. Whoever does not start at left guard will provide solid depth, but the rest of the Bills’ reserves are a concern, with talented swing tackle Ryan Van Demark leaving in free agency. Other depth options include 4th round rookie Jude Bowry, who will compete with 2024 6th round pick Tylan Grable (146 snaps in two seasons in the league) for the swing tackle job, and backup center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, a 2024 5th round pick who has played 217 snaps in two seasons in the league. The lack of depth is made more concerning by the fact that the Bills use six offensive linemen on the field more than any team in the league. This is still a solid offensive line, but they probably won’t be quite as good as they have been the past two years.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Outside of Josh Allen, the Bills’ best offensive player is running back James Cook. A second round pick in 2022, Cook is undersized at 5-11 190, which had historically led to the Bills reducing his workload, despite his obvious talent, in an effort to keep him from tiring out or getting injured. That changed in 2025, when Cook set career highs in snaps (639) and carries (309), and he responded by leading the league in rushing yards with 1,621 on an average of 5.25 yards per carry. In total, Cook has averaged 5.06 yards per attempt in his career, with 3.05 yards per carry after contact, a 18.2% missed tackle rate, and 54.9% carry success rate. He’s also been extremely durable, despite his size, missing just one game in four seasons in the league.

The Bills give Cook a rest in obvious passing situations, as many teams do with an elite lead back, swapping him out for passing down specialist Ty Johnson, but Cook still totaled a 33/291/2 slash line in the passing game, averaging 1.11 yards per route run, not far off from his career 1.28 yards per route run average. Johnson, more of a receiver than a running back, had a 24/263/2 slash line and averaged 1.18 yards per route run, in line with his career 1.22 yards per route run average, while playing 83.9% of his 335 snaps on pass plays. In seven seasons in the league, he has totaled just 329 carries in 106 games.

If Cook were to miss time, Ray Davis would probably be the featured runner, with Johnson remaining in a pure passing down role, maybe taking on a couple extra carries at most. Davis was a 4th round pick in 2024 and has shown some potential in two seasons in the league, averaging 4.19 YPC on 171 carries, with 2.92 yards per carry after contact, a 22.8% missed tackle rate, a 49.1% carry success rate. He’d obviously be a big downgrade from Cook if Cook was injured, but he isn’t bad as far as true backups go and Cook’s history suggests there is a better than average chance that he plays every game. Led by an elite, durable lead back, with decent depth behind him, the Bills are in good shape at the running back position.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Bills’ defense has typically been what has let them down in the post-season in recent years, they actually weren’t bad in the regular season last season, ranking 18th in schedule adjusted efficiency, despite having the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on that side of the ball. Probably their most impactful absence on defense last season was Ed Oliver, who played just 108 snaps in three games due to injuries to his ankle, arm, and knee. When healthy, Oliver is one of the best interior pass rushers in the league, with 30 sacks, 54 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 95 games in seven seasons in the league, since being selected 9th overall in 2019. He is generally a below average run defender, but his pass rush more than makes up for it. 

The amount of injuries he suffered last season is concerning, but he still made it back for the post-season, so he should be well past those injuries by the start of the 2026 season and he is still only going into his age 29 season. Durability has been a bit of a concern for him in recent years, as he also missed seven games between 2022-2024, but at the very least, Oliver should be on the field much more in 2026 than he was in 2025, which will be a big boost for this defense.

Making Oliver’s injury worse is the fact that Daquan Jones and TJ Sanders, who were their #2 and #3 interior defenders, also missed five games each. With all of their injuries, the Bills were led in snaps at the interior defender position by 4th round rookie Deone Walker, who was decent across 464 snaps, both as a run defender and a pass rusher (6.9% pressure rate). Jones is gone, not being retained ahead of his age 35 season, but with Oliver back and Walker looking like a potential future starter, the loss of Jones isn’t that big of a deal. Sanders, meanwhile, struggled across 296 snaps last season, but he was also a rookie and the 2025 2nd round pick could take a step forward, perhaps a significant step forward, in year two in 2026. 

Deep reserve options at the interior defender position for the Bills include DeWayne Carter, a 2024 3rd round pick who struggled across 315 snaps as a rookie and then missed last season with a torn achilles, and 2025 3rd round pick Landon Jackson, who was originally drafted as an oversized edge defender at 6-7 280, but who only got on the field for 30 snaps as a rookie and will now gain weight and move inside in an attempt to jump start his career. The Bills will be hoping they don’t need either of them for a significant role in a position group that should be better than a year ago due to better health and continued development from young players.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bills’ edge defender group, on the other hand, could be worse this season than a year ago, as they let veteran Joey Bosa walk and replaced him with Bradley Chubb, who figures to be a downgrade, despite being signed to a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal with 26.97 million guaranteed. It was an odd decision. Bosa left something to be desired as a run defender last season, but excelled as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. The concerns with Bosa are age, going into his age 31 season, and injury history, 39 games missed over the past 8 seasons, including 2 games missed in 2025, but Chubb is going into his age 30 season and has an extensive injury history as well, in addition to being a downgrade from Bosa. 

Chubb didn’t miss a game last season, but he has missed 43 games in 8 seasons in the league, including all of 2024 with a multi-ligament knee injury, and he did not seem the same upon his return, struggling mightily against the run and not rushing the passer at a high enough level to make up for it, totaling 8.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate. Both as a run defender and a pass rusher, Chubb was worse than Bosa in 2025. Chubb has had better years in the past, but given his age and injury history, it seems unlikely he will ever regain his old form. Chubb will start in Bosa’s old role (37.5 snaps per game) opposite Greg Rousseau, a mainstay on this defensive line since being selected 30th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Rousseau doesn’t usually get mentioned as a top pass rusher and only has 32 sacks in his career, but that is partially because he rotates more than most top edge defenders, playing 589 snaps per season in his career, including 631 last season, and he also has much better peripheral pass rush stats than his sack totals would suggest, totaling 60 hits and a 13.9% pressure rate in 78 career games. He is also a consistently above average run defender. Last season was arguably the best of his career, as he totaled 7 sacks, 16 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate, while playing at a career best level against the run. Still only in his age 26 season, with minimal injury history (six games missed in five seasons in the league), he should remain a well above average all-around edge defender for at least a few more seasons.

In addition to signing Chubb, the Bills also used a 2nd round pick on TJ Parker to replace top reserve AJ Epenesa, who was decent across 437 snaps last season, before leaving in free agency, and they signed veteran Mike Danna to compete for deep reserve snaps with Michael Hoecht, who only played in two seasons last season due to suspension and a torn achilles. Parker could have some growing pains as a rookie, but he also could have been a first round pick and was a good value at the top of the second round, after the Bills traded out of the late first round. He should be solid as the Bills 3rd edge defender.

Danna is a mediocre option, playing decent run defense in his career, but only managing a 8.1% pressure rate, while playing 495 snaps per season in six seasons in the league (389 in 2025). He’s not bad as a 4th defensive end option though. Hoecht, meanwhile, has been a little bit better in his career, with a career 10.4% pressure rate, along with generally decent run defense, while playing 669 snaps per season from 2022-2024, but the torn achilles he suffered last season complicates his projection. This position group isn’t as good with Bradley Chubb replacing Joey Bosa, but this is still a slightly above average position group overall, led by the highly reliable and all-around well above average Greg Rousseau.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Bills also had a lot of injuries in their linebacking corps last season. The problem is most of their linebackers weren’t good anyway and the only one who was decent, Shaq Thompson (417 snaps in 11 games) was not retained this off-season. Also not retained this off-season was Matt Milano, who struggled across 492 snaps in 12 games, but whose departure leaves the Bills very thin at the linebacker position behind Terrel Bernard (623 snaps in 12 games) and Dorian Williams (433 snaps in 16 games), who both also struggled last season.

Bernard, a 2022 3rd round pick, has been below average in each of the last three seasons, playing 56.5 snaps per game, while missing nine games total in the past two seasons. Dorian Williams, a 2023 3rd round pick, has maybe been marginally better, but still below average he has played an average of just 25.9 snaps per game in three seasons in the league, with a maximum of 651 snaps played in a season. He will almost definitely have to play an expanded role this season, especially if Bernard misses more time with injury. 

Behind Bernard and Williams, the third linebacker role will either go to Joe Andreessen, a 2024 undrafted free agent who has played just 211 snaps in two seasons in the league, or 4th round rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr. The third linebacker only plays in obvious running situations, but if either Bernard or Williams miss time with injury, whoever is the third linebacker would have to move into an every down role. This is a well below average position group overall.

Grade: C

Secondary

Top cornerback Christian Benford also dealt with injuries last season, missing three games and being limited in others. Normally a well above average starting cornerback, Benford was only slightly above average last season, which hurt this secondary. Still only in his age 26 season, he could easily bounce back this season, which would be needed for a cornerback room that otherwise has upside, but not a lot of experience. 

Tre’Davious White (700 snaps) and Taron Johnson (571 snaps) played key roles in this secondary last season, but were average at best and were not retained this off-season. In their absence, the Bills will start Maxwell Hairston, a 2025 1st round pick who flashed his first round talent across just 348 snaps in 11 games in an injury plagued rookie season, while 2nd round rookie Davison Igbinosun will compete for the third cornerback job with veteran free agent additions Dee Alford and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who are both mediocre options. 

Alford has averaged 531 snaps per season over four seasons in the league (581 in 2025), primarily on the slot (78.2% of snaps), but the 2022 undrafted free agent has generally been a liability. Meanwhile, Gardner-Johnson struggled mightily last season across 767 snaps with the Texans, Ravens, and the Bears, getting cut mid-season by Houston and Baltimore. He has had some decent seasons in the past, but he has also been very injury prone, missing 29 games over the past five seasons. It’s possible he could bounce back at least a little bit in 2026, but it is also possible that all his injuries have permanently sapped his abilities.

Gardner-Johnson could also be a candidate at safety, which is also an unsettled position. Cole Bishop, a 2024 2nd round pick, broke out as an above average starter in 2025, after only playing 358 mediocre snaps as a rookie, but opposite him the Bills started three other safeties. Veteran Jordan Poyer was probably the best of the bunch by default, but he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, ahead of his age 35 season. The rest of the Bills’ starting safeties last season struggled and are also no longer on the roster. 

Jordan Hancock, a 2025 5th round pick, flashed potential as a rookie, but only across 150 snaps and he didn’t make a single start, despite a need at the position, so he probably isn’t a real candidate to start opposite Bishop in 2026. Veteran free agent addition Geno Stone is a more realistic candidate to start and will probably primarily compete with Gardner-Johnson. Stone finished second in the league with 7 interceptions in 2023, but also missed a lot of tackles and gave up a lot of big plays, as he has throughout his career, when he has otherwise totaled just 7 interceptions in 66 games. This secondary has some upside, but also a lot of concerns.

Grade: B-

Kickers

Tyler Bass was supposed to be the Bills’ kicker in 2025, for the 6th straight season, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2020. However, he suffered what ended up being a season ending hip and groin injury before the season even started. That ended up being a blessing in disguise though, as Bass had cost the Bills 11.49 points compared to an average kicker in his first five seasons in the league combined, while Prater turned back the clock and actually contributed 2.64 points above an average kicker in 2025. Prater wasn’t retained ahead of what would have been his age 42 season in 2026 and the Bills didn’t add any other kickers, leaving Bass in that role, even though he is an underwhelming option and coming off of a significant leg injury. It is hard to imagine he won’t be at least somewhat of a liability in 2026.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Bills figure to win somewhere between their usual 11 and 13 games again in 2026. That won’t mean anything to some people though if they can’t finally get over the hump in the post-season. Whether or not they can do that remains to be seen, but consistently qualifying, getting a high seed, and winning at least one game is an accomplishment in and of itself and doing that year after year will likely lead to them winning it all at some point. Expect them to at least be contenders again this season.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East

Quarterback

The Bills went 13-3 in meaningful regular season games last year, locking up the #2 seed before week 18 and resting starters in the final week of the season as a result. However, there are some reasons to expect them to regress in terms of win total in 2025. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Bills were only slightly above average at +1.55% and +0.50 respectively, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. The reason the Bills were able to win significantly more games than those numbers would suggest is their turnover margin, which led the league at +24, but turnover margin has very little year-to-year correlation. 

The Bills especially excelled in fumble margin at +14, which has no year-to-year correlation, nor does their league leading fumble recovery percentage. In fact, just one year prior in 2023, the Bills were just +2 in turnover margin and +2 in fumble margin. For the Bills to continue winning at the same rate they won at last season, they will have to elevate their overall level of play, rather than just relying on turnovers, and I don’t think they improved enough this off-season for that to happen. This isn’t to say they will become a bad team or even miss the playoffs, but I would expect their win total to come down, perhaps significantly.

The Bills’ offense was by far their better side of the ball last season, ranking 4th in first down rate and 6th in yards per play, and I expect that to continue in 2025. At quarterback, the Bills have the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league for several years. Since 2020, he has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 165 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions through the air, with 3,001 yards and 48 touchdowns on 561 carries (5.35 YPC) on the ground, while making every start. 

However, last season was the best season of Allen’s career and he might not be able to be quite as good this season, particularly in terms of interception rate, as Allen threw an interception on just 1.2% of his passes last season, as opposed to 2.4% over the previous four seasons. If that interception rate creeps back up and the Bills’ fumble margin normalizes next season, they will have a significant drop off in turnover margin, which seems likely, given how turnover margins typically vary year-to-year.

Allen almost never misses time with injury, with his last game missed coming back in his rookie season in 2018, but he does take more hits than the average quarterback because of how much he takes off and runs with the ball, which could eventually catch up with him. If he happens to miss time this season, Allen would be replaced by backup Mitch Trubisky, who is a decent, but underwhelming backup. Trubisky was once the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he only has a career 86.0 QB rating in 57 starts, which is why he has settled into a backup role, making just seven starts over the past four seasons. He would obviously be a huge downgrade from Allen if he had to step in and play, but the same can be said of any quarterback backing up an elite quarterback like Allen, so that isn’t necessarily a knock on Trubisky as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Bills largely bring back the same supporting cast as last season on offense, with the only significant change being that they didn’t bring back veteran wide receiver Mack Hollins and instead signed Joshua Palmer, but that figures to be an upgrade. Hollins actually led this receiving corps in routes run, but was very inefficient, turning 50 targets into just a 31/378/5 slash line and averaging just 0.92 yards per route run. Palmer has largely been underwhelming in his career, since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, averaging just 1.39 yards per route run, but that average has increased to 1.59 over the past two seasons, he gets an upgrade in quarterback by joining the Bills, he is still only in his age 26 season, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Hollins.

Palmer might not necessarily step right into Hollins’ old role, as some of Hollins’ vacated snaps could go to Khalil Shakir, who was their most effective receiver last season, and Keon Coleman, a 2024 2nd round pick who might have the highest upside of this group. Both Shakir and Coleman were significantly more efficient than Hollins last season and both will probably be more efficient than Palmer this season. Shakir is the Bills’ de facto #1 wide receiver, leading the team in targets (100), catches (76), and receiving yards (821), while averaging 2.15 yards per route run, good for 21st in the NFL among wide receivers. 

Shakir’s performance didn’t come out of nowhere either, as the 2022 5th round had averaged 1.84 yards per route run in 2023. Still only in his age 25 season, Shakir should continue playing at a similar level and, if he sees an uptick in playing time, he could easily exceed last year’s total receiving numbers. Coleman, meanwhile, averaged 1.71 yards per route run last season, turning only 57 targets into a 29/556/4 slash line, despite being considered raw as a draft prospect. He could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league, still only his age 22 season. 

With Shakir, Coleman, and Palmer likely locked in as the Bills’ top-3 receivers, that leaves Curtis Samuel as the #4 receiver at best. Samuel was signed to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season to potentially play a significant role in this offense, but he only ended up playing 378 snaps and struggled with a 1.11 yards per route run average, down from his career average of 1.35. Only in his age 29 season, Samuel should have some bounce back potential in 2025, but he would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role. He’s only still on the team because most of his salary is guaranteed.

Samuel could also face competition for the top reserve role from free agent addition Elijah Moore. Moore only signed for 1-year, 2.5 million and has only averaged 1.10 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but he has never had a good quarterback and is still only in his age 25 season, so he comes with some upside. However, like Samuel, he will need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a solid 1.62 yards per route run last season, though he missed four games due to injury and split snaps with Dawson Knox, who played 616 snaps in 16 games, as compared to 469 snaps in 13 games for Kincaid. That limited Kincaid to just a 44/448/2 slash line overall. A first round pick in 2023, Kincaid had a lower yards per route run average as a rookie at 1.46, but he finished with a 73/673/2 slash line because he was healthier, while Knox missed four games due to injury. 

Knox only averaged 1.04 yards per route run last season and has only averaged 1.08 yards per route run in his career, so the Bills may opt to start giving Kincaid a bigger role at Knox’s expense in 2025, giving Kincaid significant production upside going into his third season in the league, but it’s also possible Knox continues cutting into his playing time. This is overall a deep receiving corps, even if they don’t have a true #1 receiver.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One potential concern for this offense in 2025 is that they are unlikely to stay as healthy as they did last season, when they had the third fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league. Their offensive line was their healthiest unit, as their starting five offensive linemen missed just one game between them, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2025. Another potential concern for this offensive line is the age of left tackle Dion Dawkins, who has been a consistently above average player since his rookie season in 2017, never receiving a PFF grade lower than 69.9, with a 72.9 PFF grade in 2024, but who is now going into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season as a result. 

Right tackle Spencer Brown was their highest graded offensive lineman last season, slightly ahead of Dawkins, finishing with a 73.6 PFF grade. That was a career best grade for him, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 68.1 PFF grade in 2023. Brown could regress somewhat from his career best 2024 season, but he should still remain an above average starter, very much in his prime in his age 27 season. 

The Bills’ worst offensive lineman last season was right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who had a 54.9 PFF grade. Torrence, a 2023 2nd round pick, also struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He came into the league with a high upside and it’s possible he takes a step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he doesn’t, he figures to remain in his starting role because the Bills don’t have a better option, with their best alternative being free agent addition Kendrick Green, a 2021 3rd round pick who has made 19 starts in four seasons in the league and has never finished above 60 on PFF over the course of a full season.

Opposite Torrence at left guard, the Bills will once again have David Edwards, who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career in which he has been the primary starter, including a 63.8 PFF grade in 2024. He figures to have a similar season again in 2025. Rounding out the offensive line at center is Connor McGovern, who had a 69.6 PFF grade last season, but that was a career best in six seasons in the league for the 2019 3rd round pick, who has only finished above 60 on PFF in three of those seasons. He could remain a capable starter, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat last season’s career best year.

The Bills also frequently used six offensive linemen together last season, move than any other team in the league, as their 6th offensive lineman Alec Anderson played 223 snaps in 16 meaningful games. Anderson is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap in his career prior to last season, but he excelled as an extra offensive lineman, with a 72.8 PFF grade. He didn’t play more than 32 snaps in any meaningful game last season, but he does have the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and could easily find himself in a starting role at some point this season if and when injuries strike. That would be a concern though, as not only could Anderson struggle as a regular starting offensive lineman, but they would also have to find a replacement for Anderson as the 6th offensive lineman in that scenario This is a solid offensive line, but they are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Bills also got a productive year out of lead back James Cook, who took 207 carries for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.87 YPC), while ranking 10th in the NFL among running backs in carry success rate at 53.1%. Cook benefited significantly from Josh Allen being lined up in the backfield with him though, as defenses had to worry about Allen taking off and running with the ball himself. In terms of elusive rating, which takes into account how often a running back breaks tackles and how many yards he gets after contact, Cook was at just 54.5, 33rd among 57 eligible running backs. This has been a trend for Cook, who has averaged 4.95 yards per carry on 533 carries in three seasons in the league, but has just a career 53.2 elusive rating, with 2.99 yards per carry after contact and a 17.4% missed tackle rate.

Cook now is heading into the final year of his rookie deal and wants a top of the market contract, which the Bills seem hesitant to give him, likely realizing how much of his success is due to the talent around him. Cook could potentially hold out for an extended period of time in search of this new deal and there is a history of running backs underperforming after extended holdouts, but there is very little incentive for Cook to actually miss games due to his holdout. One way or another, he figures to return as the Bills’ feature back for at least one more season, in a similar role to last season. 

Cook also contributes in the passing game, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in 2024 and a career 1.34 yards per route run average. When he needs a break on passing downs, the Bills typically bring in Ty Johnson, who only played 315 snaps last season, but 237 of them came on passing downs, almost the same amount as Cook, who played 248 passing down snaps. In his career, Johnson has averaged 1.17 yards per route run, including 1.54 over the past two seasons since joining the Bills. He’s only had 279 carries in six seasons in the league, including just 41 last season, and his career 4.55 YPC average is largely the result of only getting carries in long yardage situations when the defense is expecting the pass, but he is valuable in the specific role he plays.

The Bills also have Ray Davis, a 2024 4th round pick, as their primary backup on early downs, ranking second on the team with 113 carries last season. He only averaged 3.91 yards per carry on those carries, with a 45.1% carry success rate, but he did exceed Cook in elusive rating (70.9) and he has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league. He didn’t play much in passing situations last season, ranking third on the team among running backs in passing down snaps, but he did show a lot of potential, with 1.87 yards per route run. If Cook isn’t kept beyond this season, it’s possible Davis gets the opportunity to be the starter in 2026 and beyond. This is a deep backfield that fits well together, though a potential holdout by Cook is a concern.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

With the Bills’ offense played at a high level last season and will likely continue doing so in 2025, the Bills’ defense struggled, ranking 25th in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, and, with their turnover margin likely to regress significantly this season, the Bills’ defense could easily get exposed and cost them more games than it did last season if they don’t significantly improve their level of play. Defensive performance tends to be much less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, which is a good thing for this defense as they could easily be better on defense this season by default, but the Bills really didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to improve on defense this off-season.

At the edge defender position, the Bills let go of their top-3 reserves, Dawuane Smoot (322 snaps), Von Miller (279 snaps), and Casey Toohill (249 snaps) and replaced them with veterans Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht and third round pick Landon Jackson, which isn’t necessarily an upgrade. Smoot and Toohill struggled last season, with PFF grades of 57.7 and 51.1, but Von Miller excelled as a situational pass rusher, with a 15.3% pressure rate and a 82.4 PFF grade. 

Miller will mostly directly be replaced by Joey Bosa, another accomplished, but aging pass rusher. Throughout the first eight seasons of Bosa’s career from 2016-2023, the former 3rd overall pick finished above 75 on PFF in every season, with six seasons above 80, while totaling 67 sacks, 83 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate in 93 games, but durability increasingly became an issue for him, as he missed 38 total games in those eight seasons, including 20 games missed in 2022 and 2023 combined. 

In 2024, Bosa’s injuries seemed to catch up with him. He only missed three games, but he was limited to 32.6 snaps per game and had just a 63.9 PFF grade with just a 10.8% pressure rate, all three of which were the lowest of his career. Bosa is now going into his age 30 season and, while he isn’t totally over the hill and could have some bounce back potential if he stays healthy, his best days are likely to be gone at this point. Even in a limited situational role, he’s unlikely to be as efficient rushing the passer as Miller was last season.

Bosa has the most upside of the reserve options. Hoecht has played 2,008 snaps over the past three seasons, but has been middling at best, with PFF grades of 65.4, 61.7, and 61.3 respectively and a pressure rate of just 10.7% across the three seasons. He could benefit from playing a smaller role in Buffalo, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s also facing a 6-game PED suspension to start the season. In his absence, the Bills may have to rely more on Bosa or on the rookie Jackson, who could be a starter long-term, but who also could be raw as a rookie. The Bills also have 2024 5th round pick Javon Solomon, who flashed potential as a rookie with a 73.1 PFF grade and a 15.7% pressure rate, albeit across just 135 total snaps, and he could be in line for a bigger role in year two.

Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa remain as the starters. Rousseau is by far their best player at the position and arguably is the best player on this entire defense, posting a 83.1 PFF grade last season, his third straight season above 80. In 2022 and 2023, Rousseau’s snap count was limited to 463 and 585 respectively, but that jumped up to 736 in 2024 and he maintained the same level of efficiency. In total, he has 21 sacks, 38 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons and, still only in his age 25 season, the former first round pick might still have further untapped upside. He should at least repeat his 2024 performance in 2025 and could be even better.

Epenesa, on the other hand, struggled last season, with a 54.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps and just a 5.9% pressure rate. The 2020 2nd round pick has had some better seasons in the past, but he never exceeded 388 snaps played in a season prior to last season and likely needs a reduced role if he wants to have a chance of bouncing back in 2025. That would require one or multiple of their reserves to play more than any of their reserves did last season. 

Bosa has the potential to do so, or even to take over the starting role from Epenesa, while Hoecht could be a slight upgrade by default over Epenesa when he is done with his suspension, and the youngsters Jackson and Solomon have upside as well, but chances are Epenesa will again have to play more than the Bills would like, even if his role is less than it was last season. Greg Rousseau elevates this position group significantly by himself and the rest of the bunch have upside if they can find the right rotation, but there is still some concern with this position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, Ed Oliver (603 snaps) and DaQuan Jones (547 snaps) were a solid starting duo last season, with PFF grades of 71.0 and 64.6 respectively. Oliver struggled against the run, but excelled as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate, which is largely in line with how he’s played throughout his six seasons in the league, as he’s finished above 60 on PFF as a run defender just once, but has finished above 60 as a pass rusher in all six seasons, with four seasons above 70. In total, he has 27 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 92 career games. Still in his age 28 season, Oliver should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a consistently well-rounded player in his career, only totaling 16 sacks, 45 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 148 games over the past ten seasons, but finishing above 60 in run defense in all but two of those seasons and finishing above 60 overall in all of those seasons, with six seasons above 70. The problem is he’s now going into his age 34 season and, coming off the 2nd lowest PFF grade of those ten seasons, he could have already started a decline that will further continue into 2025. To prepare for Jones’ getting up there in age, the Bills used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on TJ Sanders and Deone Walker and they used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on DeWayne Carter, but Carter had a 41.4 PFF grade across 315 snaps as a rookie and it’s far from a guarantee that any of those three will ever develop into as good of a player as Jones was in his prime.

The Bills also added veteran Larry Ogunjobi as a free agent to give them additional depth, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a 49.4 PFF grade across 495 snaps last season, and now he is going into his age 31 season and also facing a 6-game PED suspension. Most likely, the higher drafted Sanders and the veteran Ogunjobi will be the primary reserves, with the lower drafted Walker and Carter, who struggled as a rookie, as deeper reserves, but Ogunjobi’s suspension will force Walker and/or Carter into bigger roles to start the season. If the aging DaQuan Jones declines significantly, this position group could have a big problem.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Bills have an unsettled group. Matt Milano was once a consistently above average every down linebacker, receiving PFF grades of 70.1 and 73.7 on snap counts of 915 and 946 as recently as 2021 and 2022, but injuries have limited him to 394 snaps in nine games over the past two seasons and he’s now missed significant time with injury in three of the past five seasons. His injuries seemed to take a toll on him upon his return last season, as he struggled mightily with a 48.0 PFF grade across 183 snaps in four games.

Milano could have some bounce back potential in 2025 if he’s healthy, but he’s now in his age 30 season, so it seems likely that his best days are behind him at this point. Because of that, the Bills made him take a pay cut from the 20 million he was owed over the next two seasons to a 1-year, 6.3 million dollar deal. His salary still suggests the Bills view him as a starter, but how much he’ll be able to play and how effective he will be remain up in the air.

In Milano’s absence last season, Terrel Bernard (750 snaps) and Dorian Williams (651 snaps) were their top-2 linebackers. Bernard struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade, but he was better in 2023 when he had a 64.0 PFF grade across 999 snaps, so the 2022 3rd round pick could have some bounce back potential in 2025. Williams, on the other hand, was the opposite, as the 2023 3rd round pick had a 55.2 PFF grade across 211 snaps as a rookie, but improved to a 61.6 PFF grade in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Both players have decent upsides, but both are underwhelming starting options. They will likely compete for one starting role opposite Milano, with the other being the top reserve and a situational option. This group has upside overall, but also significant downside in a worst case scenario.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Other than maybe Greg Rousseau, the Bills’ best defensive player last season was cornerback Christian Benford, who ranked 4th among cornerbacks with an 82.6 PFF grade. That wasn’t out of character for Benford either, as he had an 82.2 PFF grade in 2023 as well. Benford was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but he has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and he is only going into his age 25 season, so he should remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league for the foreseeable future.

The Bills did not get as good of play from their other outside cornerback last season though, as Rasul Douglas finished with a 59.2 PFF grade and was subsequently let go this off-season. To replace him, the Bills used their first round pick on Nate Hairston, who is raw, but has a high upside and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Douglas. He could face competition for his starting job from Tre’Davious White, a former first round pick of the Bills, who used to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league from 2017-2020

That was before he suffered a torn ACL and a torn achilles in a two-year span from 2021-2023 though, which led to him playing just 892 snaps over the past three seasons combined. White was released by the Bills last off-season and spent 2024 with the Rams and Ravens, with whom he combined for a 52.9 PFF grade across 403 snaps. That was only the first season of his career below 60 on PFF, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to regaining his pre-injury form. He’s not a bad insurance option to have, but the Bills are definitely hoping Hairston can win the job and keep White as a reserve.

Taron Johnson remains as the slot cornerback. He finished last season with a 65.0 PFF grade across 646 snaps in 12 games, with five games missed due to injury. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his 7-year career, as he’s finished in the 60s in six of those seven seasons. The one exception was a 80.2 PFF grade in 2023, but it’s likely that will prove to be a fluke when all is said and done. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect Johnson to remain a solid, but unspectacular solid cornerback in 2025.

At safety, the Bills bring back their top-4 safeties from a year ago in terms of snaps played, but none of them were better than a replacement level player, so this position group looks unsettled going into 2025. Damar Hamlin led the group with 875 snaps played, but had just a 60.2 PFF grade, which is in line with how he played in the only other season in his career in which he saw significant action, as he had a 61.4 PFF grade across 845 snaps in 2022. If he remains a starter in 2025, he will likely remain a replacement level player.

Taylor Rapp was the other starter last season, but he was even worse, with a 59.0 PFF grade across 779 snaps. He’s had better years in the past, as the 2019 2nd round pick finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, including a career best 76.2 PFF grade across 976 snaps in 2022, but he’s now finished below 60 in two straight seasons, so the odds are decreasing that he ever returns to his old form. He’s still only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he could continue struggling.

Cam Lewis was the highest graded of the bunch last season, but even he only had a 61.4 PFF grade and that came across just 597 snaps. The 2019 undrafted free agent has shown some potential in his career, but he only played 380 snaps in five seasons in the league prior to last season and is a projection to an every down role, so he’s best as a situational reserve. Cole Bishop, meanwhile, might have the highest upside of the bunch, but the 2024 2nd round pick struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade across 358 snaps last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to even be a replacement level starting caliber player. He too will likely remain a reserve in 2025, even in an overall underwhelming safety group. Top cornerback Christian Benford elevates this group significantly by himself and Taron Johnson is entrenched on the slot, but the rest of this position group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Kicker

Kicker Tyler Bass has been a weak point of the Bills’ roster for a few years, finishing below average in four of five seasons in the league, costing the Bills 11.49 points compared to league average over that time, including 1.64 in 2024. He’s made 84.5% of his field goals in his career, but has overall had a relatively low difficulty level, attempting just 23 kicks of 50+ yards in his career. The Bills didn’t bring in any competition for him this off-season and seem content to give him another shot in 2025, but he figures to be at least somewhat below average again.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Bills won 13 games last season, but their first down rate differential and yards per play differential were more in line with a 10-win team. Their offense played at a high level and will likely continue doing so in 2025, but their defense struggled and will also likely continue doing so in 2024. Meanwhile, their +24 turnover margin is highly unlikely to come close to repeating, given the volatility of turnover margins on a year-to-year basis. Assuming that happens, that will expose the Bills’ defense more than it was exposed last season. Fortunately, they still look like clearly the best team in their division and they overall have one of the easiest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in AFC East