Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 AFC Championship Pick

Buffalo Bills (15-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The long awaited news has come that Patrick Mahomes will be able to play in this game and be 100%, despite being knocked out of last week’s win with a concussion. The betting public obviously likes that, shooting this line up to Kansas City -3.5, but Mahomes doesn’t solve all of the Chiefs’ problems and the Chiefs are still overpriced for a team that hasn’t covered a spread since week 8, despite winning their last 11 games started by Mahomes. 

Of those 11 wins, their last 8 have all come by 6 points or fewer, including a 5-point win over the Browns last week. The Chiefs were obviously doing better in that game before Mahomes got hurt, but they were up just 9 points as 10-point favorites when Mahomes left and that was despite a missed personal foul penalty that would have nullified a goal line fumble that became a touchback and a turnover rather than a likely Browns touchdown.

The Chiefs still have a great offense, but they haven’t been quite as dominant this season, particularly in the second half of the season, with key right tackle Mitchell Schwartz out due to injury from week 7 on, a big part of the reason why they have been failing to blow teams out in recent weeks. Overall, the Chiefs actually finished 2nd in first down rate expected this year, behind their opponents this week the Buffalo Bills, who also have the edge on the Chiefs in points per game. That is true even if you exclude the Chiefs’ meaningless week 17 loss. 

The Chiefs also have concerns on defense, where they rank 20th in first down rate over expected at +0.88%. The Bills haven’t fared well on that side of the ball either, ranking 22nd at +0.91%, but even with that they’re still ahead of the Chiefs in first down rate differential, ranking 4th at +3.39%, while the Chiefs rank 6th at +2.75%. The Bills also have played a lot better in recent weeks defensively, primarily due to improved health in their linebacking corps, leading to them winning their last 8 games straight by 17 points per game. In fact, excluding a week 10 loss in Arizona on a Hail Mary, the Bills have won 11 straight games and have won by fewer than 6 points just twice, a more impressive streak than the Chiefs’ recent streak because the Bills have blown out most of their opponents. 

The Chiefs will have the benefit of some fans in the stands in this game at home and, in a playoff atmosphere, the Chiefs could have something resembling normal home field advantage, but I have the Bills as the slightly better team and have them calculated as just 1.5-point underdogs, so we’re getting great line value, passing the key number of a field goal at Buffalo +3.5. Even if the Bills can’t pull off the road upset, I like their chances of keeping it close, as 1 in 4 of games are decided by 3 points or fewer (including 1 in 6 by exactly 3) and the Chiefs have won only half of their last 8 games by more than a field goal, with their other margins of victory being 4, 5, 6, and 6. This should be a close game either way, so I love getting more than a field goal with the Bills.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Buffalo Bills 33

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3.5

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2020 AFC Divisional Round Pick

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-3)

This line favors the Bills by just 1.5 points in Buffalo, where the Bills will have the benefit of at least having some fans in the stands, suggesting that the odds makers and the public view these two teams about even, perhaps even favoring the lower seeded Ravens slightly. I think this line is mispriced. The Ravens have been great on 3rd and 4th down on both sides of the ball, allowing the 2nd lowest 3rd/4th down conversion rate in the NFL while converting 3rd/4th downs at the league’s 3rd highest rate, which has powered them to a 11-5 record and a second round playoff appearance.

However, the Bills’ offense has been better on both 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th downs, particularly on 1st/2nd down when the Bills rank 2nd in conversion rate and the Ravens rank all the way down at 27th, but the Bills are also better on 3rd/4th down when they rank 1st. Even on defense, which is by far the Bills’ weaker side of the ball, the Bills have the edge on 1st/2nd down, ranking 24th while the Ravens rank just 28th, though the Ravens have obviously been significantly better on 3rd/4th down defensively, ranking 2nd while the Bills rank 12th.

That’s all important to mention because offensive performance is much more predictive than defensive performance and because performance on 1st/2nd down is much more predictive than performance on 3rd/4th down. The Bills’ offense has had the obvious edge on early downs and they have the overall edge in my roster rankings as well, as their defense has gotten significantly better down the stretch due to better health, particularly with linebacker Matt Milano returning to the lineup in week 13. The Bills should be favored by at least 4.5 points, if not more, in this one, so we’re getting great value with them as mere 1.5-point favorites. This is one of three games I locked in earlier this week, and though the line hasn’t really moved, I’m still happy I locked this in because I like the Bills a lot this week. 

Buffalo Bills 27 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -1.5

Confidence: High

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: 2020 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)

The Colts qualified for the post-season at 11-5 and their 8th ranked +89 point differential is what you’d expect from an 11-win team, but they benefited from the league’s 2nd best turnover margin at +10 and the league’s easiest schedule, two things that don’t bode well for this Colts team as they head into the post-season. Turnover margins are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and teams with a turnover margin of +10 or better manage just a +0.05 turnover margin in the playoffs, so the Colts won’t be able to rely on that again this week. On top of that, their strength of schedule is going up significantly, as the Bills are arguably the top team in the AFC.

The Kansas City Chiefs get a lot more attention as defending Super Bowl Champions and the AFC’s #1 seed, but it was the Bills that led the league by a wide margin with a +4.67% first down rate over expected (Kansas City finished second at +3.61%) and that lead the AFC with 31.3 points per game. Both of those hold up even when you discount the Chiefs’ last game in which they rested their key players. The Chiefs have a slight edge on defense over the Bills (+0.88% vs. +1.22%), but even with their defensive edge, Kansas City still ranks behind the Bills in schedule adjusted first down rate differential (+3.45% vs. +2.73%) and defensive performance is much less consistent week-to-week than offensive performance. 

The Bills’ defense has also played a lot better in recent weeks since getting healthier, particularly with top linebacker Matt Milano back. Their improved defense, paired with a consistently dominant offense, is the primary reason why they’ve won all 6 games since their bye week, by at least 10 points each, making them just the 9th team in the last 30 seasons to win at least 6 games in a row by double digits, including the 2nd (2014 Seahawks) to carry a streak like that into the post-season, although just two of nine went on to win the Super Bowl, for what it’s worth.

Ranking 4th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, only behind a trio of NFC teams, despite a defense that has overall ranked 25th in first down rate allowed over expected on the season at +1.22%, the Bills should be considered one of the top Super Bowl contenders going into the post-season and perhaps the favorite in the AFC if quarterback Josh Allen can continue his dominant season (I might give the Chiefs a slight edge because Mahomes is more playoff experienced).

The Colts, meanwhile, finished just 14th in the league in first down rate differential at +0.08%, once strength of schedule is taken into account, so there is a pretty big gap between these two teams. The Bills should also have some homefield advantage in this matchup, with at least some fans being allowed into the Bills’ first home playoff game since 1995. Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Bills as 6-point home favorites, as they’re not underrated anymore after 6 straight wins that weren’t all that close. My calculated line is Buffalo -7, so I’d need this line to drop to 5.5 to consider placing a bet on the Bills.

Buffalo Bills 31 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -6

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 17 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)

This is one of the toughest calls of the week because no one seems to know what the Bills are going to be doing with their star players. Like Pittsburgh, Buffalo is locked into either the 2 or 3 seed in the AFC, so there is speculation that they could follow the Steelers’ lead and rest their starters week 17. Adding evidence to this speculation is the fact that the Bills rested starters in week 17 of last season, though that came in a situation where the Bills were locked into the 5 seed. 

This situation is a little different for a couple reasons, so I’m not so sure we won’t see the Bills try in this one. For one, the Bills may still want the #2 seed, which they would clinch with a win over the Dolphins and a loss by Pittsburgh’s backups in Cleveland. The Steelers don’t seem to see a big difference between the 2 and 3 seed, but the Bills may see it differently. The Bills’ first playoff game next week will be their first home playoff game in 25 years and, unlike the Steelers, the Bills will be allowed to have limited fan attendance at their playoff games. 

Seeing as it’s been so long since they’ve hosted a playoff game, they may be motivated by the opportunity to host two, which they would if they got the #2 seed and won the first playoff game, while landing the 3 seed would force them to go to Pittsburgh in the 2nd round (assuming both teams win in the first round). They wouldn’t have to deal with any road fans in Pittsburgh if they had to play there, but they could desire to play in their home stadium in a way that the Steelers don’t seem to. On top of that, they may want to get Josh Allen another chance to prove himself in the MVP race. All of this is speculation, of course, but there are reasons why the Bills won’t necessarily follow the Steelers’ lead and give their stars the week off before the playoffs to avoid potential injury.

This line, favoring the Bills by 1.5 points, seems to suggest that there is a chance that the Bills play their stars, but that they probably won’t play the whole game. This line was Buffalo -5.5 on the early line last week and a mere 4-point swing doesn’t seem to suggest that Allen and company won’t play beyond the first series, but the odds makers clearly aren’t treating this as a normal game either. If this was a normal game and the Bills were favored by 5.5, I likely would have been all over the Bills, as the gap between these two teams is much bigger than these records suggest. 

Four of the Dolphins’ wins have come against the three worst teams in the league, the Jets (twice), the Jaguars, and the Bengals, while just two of their wins have come against teams with a .500 or better record, a 3-point victory over the 8-7 Cardinals and a win over the 9-6 Rams in which the Dolphins managed just 8 first downs and 145 yards of offense and primarily won because they had return touchdowns of 78 yards and 88 yards, which certainly is not sustainable every week. 

Beyond those two return touchdowns, the Dolphins have benefitted from other metrics that have little predictive value, ranking 3rd in opponent’s field goal conversion rate at 73.91%, 8th in fumble recovery rate at 57.14%, and leading the league in turnover margin at +11. Recovering fumbles and opponents missing field goals are not replicable skills, while turnover margin is very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis as well. Teams with a turnover margin of +10 or more in week 15 or later, on average, have a +0.64 turnover margin over the final 3 games of the season, leading to them covering the spread at just a 46.2% rate in those games.

Overall, the Dolphins rank 19th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at -0.41%, which is a more predictive stat. That lines up with my roster rankings, which also have the Dolphins 19th. The Dolphins have also been slightly better offensively with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center than Tua Tugavailoa, but, with Fitzpatrick on the COVID list, Tua will have to play this whole game. Making matters worse, his top-two wide receiver Devante Parker and Jakeem Grant are questionable and likely would be limited at less than 100% if they did play.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 5th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +3.50%, 5th in my roster rankings, and may be even better than that suggests. Offense is the more predictable and predictive side of the ball and the Bills have absolutely dominated on that side of the ball this season, leading the league with a +4.83% first down rate over expected that dwarfs the 2nd place Chiefs, who are “only” are +3.63. The Bills’ defense has been an issue, allowing a +1.33% first down rate over expected, 26th in the league, but, beyond the inherent unpredictability of defensive play, there is plenty of reason to expect the Bills to be better than that defensively going forward, now that they are much healthier than they were earlier this season. After the Chiefs, the Bills look like the clear 2nd best team in the AFC. 

My calculated line would have them favored by 9 points over a middling at best Dolphins team if this was a normal game. Given that, I’m inclined to take the Bills this week, as this line is 7.5 points lower than where it should be without clear confirmation that the Bills will be resting starters and not taking this game seriously. It’s hard to wager any money on a game this uncertain, but unless I hear that the Bills will be resting their starters for the full game, I am going to be on the Bills at -1.5 for a low confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -1.5

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (11-3) at New England Patriots (6-8)

After back-to-back dominant offensive performances against top level defenses in the Steelers and Broncos, the Bills have jumped actually pretty far ahead of the Chiefs for the #1 rank in first down rate over expected (+4.89% vs. +3.87%). The Chiefs still lead the conference in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, but only slightly (+3.32% vs. +3.29%) and only because of the Bills’ defensive struggles, as the Bills rank just 25th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.60%.

Defensive performance is much less predictable week-to-week than offensive performance, but beyond the inherent unpredictability of defensive performance, the Bills are also healthier than they’ve been all season on defense and they are much more talented on paper than their overall season performance, so I would say they’re much more likely to be improved going forward than your typical 25th ranked defensive unit. If they can even be a middling group defensively going forward, this team should be considered one of the top few contenders for the Super Bowl, as their offense should continue playing at a dominant level.

Unfortunately, this line has moved significantly from last week, favoring the Bills by a touchdown on the road in New England, as opposed to Buffalo -4, which is where this line was last week on the early line, before Buffalo’s nationally televised blowout victory over the Broncos. We’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the underdog Patriots in this game, as my calculated line is just Buffalo -6. Overall, the Patriots have been a slightly above average team this season, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +0.82%, but they’ve been very inconsistent, beating teams like the Ravens, Cardinals, Raiders, and Dolphins (split) and playing the Bills and Chiefs close, while losing to teams like the Broncos and Texans. 

In terms of variance, the Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL, which is rare for a team that hasn’t had a ton of injuries that would cause them to be so inconsistent. The Patriots are slightly diminished this week, missing their top cornerback Stephon Gilmore, but still rank a respectable 17th in my roster rankings, so we’re getting slightly line value. I can’t be confident in them at all, given that we’re getting minimal line value and they’ve been so inconsistent, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 30 New England Patriots 24

Pick against the spread: New England +7

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Denver Broncos (5-8)

The Chiefs are consensus favorites in the AFC, as not only defending Super Bowl Champions, but also the NFL’s last remaining 1-or-2-loss team, but there is plenty of debate over the 2nd best team in the AFC. In my opinion, it is the Buffalo Bills because they are the only team with a comparable offense to the Chiefs and offensive performance tends to be much more predictable week-to-week than defensive performance. 

In fact, after last week’s strong performance against the Steelers’ strong defense, the Bills have actually jumped ahead of the Chiefs for the league lead in first down rate over expected (+4.13% vs. +3.97%). The Chiefs still lead the conference in schedule adjusted first down rate differential (+2.81% vs. +2.39%), but that’s only because of the Bills’ defensive struggles, as the Bills rank just 25th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.74%.

As I mentioned, defensive performance is much less predictable week-to-week than offensive performance, but beyond the inherent unpredictability of defensive performance, the Bills are also healthier than they’ve been all season on defense and they are much more talented on paper than their overall season performance, so I would say they’re much more likely to be improved going forward than your typical 25th ranked defensive unit. If they can even be a middling group defensively going forward, the Bills should be a tough out in the post-season for anyone because their offense is likely to continue playing at a very high level.

The Broncos, on the other hand, have a terrible offense, ranking 31st in first down rate over expected at -3.96%, and they’re arguably even worse than that suggests, as their interception rate (4.82%) is significantly higher than the 2nd worst team (3.88%). They’ve been better in both metrics with Drew Lock under center, but only by default, and his 4.02% interception rate is still worse than any other team in the league.

The Broncos’ saving grace has been their defense, which ranks 4th in first down rate allowed over expected at -3.08%, which actually puts the Broncos only slightly below average in first down rate over expected (-0.87%), but it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll continue playing that well, especially since they are very short handed in the secondary and have overachieved their talent level thus far. 

We saw the Bills’ offense prevail against an even stronger defense last week against the Steelers and the Broncos’ offense is much less likely to keep them in the game than Pittsburgh’s was. My calculated line is Buffalo -7, so we’re getting some line value with them as 5.5-point favorites. There isn’t quite enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but that could change depending on which questionable players are able to suit up for the Broncos, particularly their talented right guard Graham Glasgow.

Buffalo Bills 27 Denver Broncos 19

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -5.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 14 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

These two teams are almost identical in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, with the Steelers ranking 5th at +2.37% and the Bills ranking 6th at +2.24%, but they do it in very different ways. The Steelers dominate on defense, ranking 2nd in first down rate allowed over expected at -4.72%, but their offense struggles, ranking 28th in first down rate over expected at -2.35%, while the Bills have a dominant offense, which ranks 2nd in first down rate over expected at +4.36%, but a defense that ranks just 27th in first down rate allowed over expected at +2.11%. The Bills should be the better bet going forward though, purely because offensive performance is much more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance. 

It’s much more likely the Bills will have a strong defensive performance to complement their dominant offense than it is that the Steelers will have a strong offensive performance to complement their dominant defense and it’s also more likely that the Steelers’ defense will disappoint than the Bills’ offense disappointing, especially since the injuries are starting to pile up on Pittsburgh’s defense, with starting edge defender Bud Dupree, starting linebacker Robert Spillane, and starting cornerback Joe Haden all out. The Bills, meanwhile, are relatively healthy, especially on defense with top linebacker Matt Milano returning last week, a defense that in general has underperformed it’s talent level and could easily be better going forward because of that.

Given that, I had this game circled last week when the Bills were 2.5-point home underdogs on the early line, but the Bills’ big win against the 49ers and the Steelers’ loss to Washington shifted this line to Buffalo -1.5. That isn’t a massive swing, especially since it’s within the field goals (-3 and +3), but my calculated line is just Buffalo -2, so we’re not getting any real line value with the Bills. The most likely outcome is the Bills winning this game by a field goal, so they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s not enough here to be confident in them.

Buffalo Bills 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -1.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) at Buffalo Bills (8-3)

The Bills’ +17 point differential is pretty underwhelming when considering their 8-3 record, as they have gone 5-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and haven’t won a game by more than 10 points all season. The good news is that they’ve been better than that in first down rate, ranking 10th with a +1.39%% schedule adjusted first down rate differential, and they’ve been led by their offense. The Bills rank 3rd in first down rate over expected at +3.10% on offense, which is a much more consistent and predictable side of the ball, and their struggles have primarily been on defense, where they rank 26th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.71%, which is much less likely to continue going forward than their strong offensive play.

Sheer regression suggests the Bills should be better defensively going forward, but there is even more reason to be optimistic, as this defense has largely underperformed its talent level. Showing the randomness of defensive performance, the Bills ranked 6th in the NFL in first down rate allowed last season, with largely the same personnel. I don’t expect them to be as good as they were last year again, but they’re getting healthy coming out of their bye week, especially with linebacker Matt Milano likely to return, and they can at least be a middling unit going forward, which, if it’s combined with the Bills continuing to play well on offense, which would make this team very dangerous going forward. It’s hard to be underrated at 8-3, but the Bills might be.

The 49ers also are underrated though, as they’re much healthier than they were earlier in the season on both sides of the ball. They’re still missing key players like quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, tight end George Kittle, and edge defender Nick Bosa, but they were more depleted than probably any team in the league at their worst, so, by comparison, the 49ers are in much better shape now. 

They’re not as good as last year obviously, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be a competitive team and they actually might be better in the secondary than they were last season now that Richard Sherman is back from injury, because, in Sherman’s absence, Jason Verrett stepped up as the corner they lacked opposite Sherman last year, which somewhat makes up for the 49ers missing Bosa and DeForest Buckner from last year’s dominant defensive line. My roster rankings have the 49ers ranked 14th in their current state and first down rate differential paints an even better picture, as they rank 6th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +2.23%, despite all of the injuries they’ve had thus far this season. It might be too late for them to climb back into the playoff race, but they’re a playoff caliber team right now.

We’re still getting some line value with the Bills, as I have them two points better than the 49ers, while this line seems to suggest the 49ers are a point better, favoring them by a point in what amounts to a neutral site game with the 49ers forced to play in Arizona for the next couple weeks. However, the 49ers are in a better spot because they’re a west coast team at night against an east coast team, which is about a 60% cover spot all-time regardless of location because of the difference in circadian rhythms. I’m not sure if that holds up in this weird circumstance in a neutral site game and I’m still taking the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, but I’m not that confident in them.

Buffalo Bills 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)

The Chargers have once again been one of the most injury prone teams in the league. It started when they lost stud safety Derwin James, arguably their top defensive player, for the season with injury before the season even began and over the first half of the season the Chargers lost several other key players. Last week against the Jets was arguably the healthiest they’ve been since the beginning of the season, with key players like stud defensive ends Joey Bosa (2 games missed) and Melvin Ingram (3 games), starting defensive tackle Justin Jones (3 games), starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga (4 games), #2 wide receiver Mike Williams (1 game), and starting right guard Trai Turner (7 games) all active after missing time earlier this year.

However, that really only lasted a week, as the Chargers have since lost top cornerback Casey Hayward and talented defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Uchenna Nwosu (their top-two edge defenders after Bosa) to injuries. The Chargers could be getting some reinforcements from injured reserve, with starting running back Austin Ekeler and starting cornerback Chris Harris potentially being activated after being designated to return, but, even with those two, the Chargers would still be far from full strength. 

Despite injuries, the Chargers have played reasonably well this season, regardless of what their 3-7 record suggests, as they’ve been within one score in all seven losses, including early leads over top level teams like the Chiefs, Saints, and Buccaneers. However, with Ekeler and Harris’ uncertainty factored in, the Chargers still rank just 23rd in my roster rankings. The general public is also pretty aware that the Chargers have been competitive against good teams in their losses and, as a result, the Chargers are just 4.5 point favorites in Buffalo against a 7-3 Bills team, so we’re not getting any line value with them.

In fact, Buffalo -4.5 is my exact calculated line and, without any situational trends that apply to this game, my decision on which side to take for pick ‘em purposes is going to be entirely dependent on the status of Ekeler and Harris. For now, I’m taking the Chargers, but that would change if Ekeler and Harris were ruled out. Either way, I expect this to be a no confidence pick barring a significant change to the spread or some other unexpected circumstance.

Update: Ekeler and Harris are both in, but I’m leaving this as a no confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-4)

These two teams have been pretty similar this year. Both have had dominant offenses, with the Cardinals ranking 1st in schedule adjusted first down rate at +3.55% and the Bills ranking 3rd at +3.09%, but both defenses have struggled mightily, ranking 25th and 28th respectively in schedule adjusted first down rate allowed. Typically, teams with dominant offenses and weak defenses are smart bets going forward because offensive play tends to be much more static week-to-week, while defensive play is more inconsistent.

The Bills have a much better chance of being improved defensively going forward than the Cardinals though, as they have more talent on that side of the ball. These two teams are about the same offensively, but the Bills’ defensive edge gives them a 2.5 point edge in my roster rankings overall. Given that the Cardinals will have minimal fans for this home game, I have this line calculated at Buffalo -1.5, so we’re getting some line value at Buffalo +2.5. 

The Cardinals are also in a look ahead spot, playing the Seahawks on a short week in Seattle on Thursday Night Football. Favorites cover at just a 44.0% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football and, making matters worse for the Cardinals, the Bills should be fully focused ahead of their bye. Favorites are just 13-24 ATS over the past thirty seasons before a short week when their opponent will next have an extended rest, which isn’t a big sample size, but it makes sense. I’d like the Bills more if this line creeps up to +3, but the Bills are still worth a bet at +2.5 and the money line is a smart bet as well.

Update: The Bills had two of their top-3 cornerbacks ruled out on Saturday because of COVID. I probably would not have bet them Friday night if I hadn’t known that was going to happen, but that’s the nature of predicting games in 2020. I do still have the Bills as slightly favored to pull the upset though.

Buffalo Bills 34 Arizona Cardinals 33 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +2.5

Confidence: Medium