Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
The Seahawks were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line has since shifted a full 4.5 points to favor the Rams by 1.5 points. Typically I love fading significant week to week line movements like that because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is no different. The line moved because the Rams pulled an upset victory in Dallas, despite the fact that the Seahawks had their best game of the season, beating the Colts in blowout fashion 46-18. However, the Cowboys are an overrated team that is not as good as last season and that was missing its best defensive player, linebacker Sean Lee.
Even without Lee, the Cowboys are still arguably the toughest opponent the Rams have faced this season, so their 3-1 record doesn’t tell the whole story. Their other two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league, the 49ers and Colts, and they lost at home to the Redskins. The Seahawks haven’t beaten a good team yet this year, but their two losses came on the road against the Packers and Titans, who are better than anyone the Rams have played, and they have much more of a proven history than the Rams.
I don’t deny the Rams are significantly improved offensively this season, with Jared Goff showing improvement, improved talent around him, and improved coaching but this line suggests they’re only 1.5 points worse than the Seahawks, which I think is very premature for a team that was one of the worst in the league a year ago. I have this line calculated at -3.5 in favor of the Seahawks and that doesn’t even take into account that this game could have a very Seahawks heavy crowd. The Rams don’t have quite the same problem attracting fans in Los Angeles as the Chargers do, but they’ve struggled to sell their stadium out so far and the Seahawks have a big national following. The Rams are just 2-6-1 ATS in LA since moving there before the 2016 season. The Seahawks are a smart pick as long as we’re getting points.
Seattle Seahawks 17 Los Angeles Rams 13 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5