Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) at Denver Broncos (5-10)

The Chiefs are one of several teams that will be resting starters this week with their playoff seeding locked up. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West last week, but can’t move any higher than the 4th seed in the AFC, so Alex Smith and many other starters will not play at all in this game. In past years, I’ve been hesitant to bet on games where either one or both teams will be resting starters, as it’s very tough to predict how backups will play in a meaningless game, but this year I will be staying away from these games entirely.

For pick ‘em purposes, I would recommend picking the Chiefs as 3.5 point road underdogs, as they still probably have the quarterback advantage with first round rookie Pat Mahomes making his first career start against Paxton Lynch, who has been horrendous in limited action in 2 seasons in the league. There’s a reason Lynch was unable to beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting job in each of the past 2 off-seasons, despite having every opportunity to as a former first round pick. Mahomes is an unknown commodity though and it’s tough to predictable how he will play without other starters around him in a meaningless game, so this is just a low confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +3.5

Confidence: Low