Cleveland Browns (0-15) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3)
This is another game I will not be betting on because one team will be resting starters. The Steelers can still get the #1 seed if they win and the Patriots lose at home to the Jets, but clearly they do not think Patriots/Jets will be a competitive game, as they have said they will be resting key starters with a first round bye locked up, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and running back Le’Veon Bell and presumably others. As a result, this line has dropped from Pittsburgh -14 at home over the Browns to -7.
The Browns are more talented than their record suggests (even if that isn’t saying much) and could be a competitive football team next season if they can get a real quarterback. In a lot of ways, they remind me of the 2012 Chiefs, who had some talent, but went 2-14 with a -24 turnover margin. The following off-season, they added Alex Smith to stabilize the quarterback position and their turnover margin and they went 11-5 as a result, with largely the same supporting cast.
The Browns are at -28 in turnover margin, which would be tied for the worst single season mark since the 2000 Chargers (who went 1-15), but most of that has been because of their horrendous quarterback play. Turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis anyway, though the Browns have been an exception to that this season because DeShone Kizer has been exceptionally bad. On the off chance they can play neutral turnover football against the Steelers’ backups, I am taking the Browns because this line is still pretty high, but this is just a no confidence pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 13
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7