Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

This was the biggest line movement of any game this week, as the Cardinals went from 8.5 point underdogs on the early line last week to 13 point underdogs this week. The Rams did post the 5th best first down rate differential of any team in the league in a 20 point win in Oakland, while the Cardinals posted the 2nd worst first down rate differential in a 18 point loss at home to the Redskins, but the Raiders are a mediocre team, while the Redskins are solid, so I don’t understand why the line shifted so much. I have the line calculated at -11, so we’re getting some line value with the Cardinals at 13. It would take a lot for me to bet against the Rams right now, but the Cardinals are the pick for pick ‘em pool purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +13

Confidence: None